US embassy cable - 05PRAGUE860

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRAGUE 000860 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2015 
TAGS: PREL, ETTC, EZ, EUN 
SUBJECT: CZECH DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER ON EU AND ARMS 
EXPORT CONSULTATIVE MECHANISM. 
 
 
Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY ECON OFFICER SAMSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AN 
D (D). 
 
1.(C) SUMMARY: The Czech Republic will focus on developments 
in Belarus and Moldova at the June 10 "Visegrad 4" meeting. 
According to Deputy FM Winkler, lessons learned from the 
recent events in Ukraine and Kygyzstan underline that the EU 
needs to improve its capacity to respond to opportunities and 
that the EU underestimated the potential for change.  Winkler 
signaled that the Czechs will again submit a proposal to the 
USG to sell a modified version of the VERA passive radar to 
Vietnam. He also confirmed that the Czech government will 
continue to use the consultative process with the USG after 
his departure this summer.  END SUMMARY 
 
2. (C) The June 10 meeting in Poland of "Visegrad 4" (V4) 
prime ministers will include Ukraine.  The Czech Republic 
will focus on the situation in Belarus and Moldova and they 
hope to offer assistance to the development of democratic 
reform in these countries.  Winkler is skeptical that the 
current leadership in these countries is in a position to 
make significant strides forward, but agreed that the Czech 
Republic is in a good position to promote a transition to 
democracy based on its own experiences.  Winkler is concerned 
that Russia regards Belarus as a country that it "cannot 
lose" and that steps need to be taken by the EU, the US, and 
neighboring countries to assure Russia that democratic change 
in Belarus is not a threat, but rather a gain for all. 
 
3. (C) Winkler believes that the EU was poorly prepared for 
the events in Ukraine.  The messages sent from the EU were 
muddled and slow.  He noted that the EU urged against street 
demonstrations, and then did not support the second round of 
voting.  His hope is that in the future, the EU will do a 
better job of reaching out to Ukraine and encouraging their 
democratic and market development. A systematic review of 
"lessons learned" from the Orange Revolution in Ukraine and 
the movement in Kygyzstan is crucial if the EU is to improve 
its ability to communicate effectively and with one voice in 
moments of political crisis. 
 
4. (C) Regarding the recent votes on the European 
Constitution, Winkler believes that a direct result of this 
will be a delay in negotiations to enlarge the EU.  He 
anticipates that the entry of Romania and Bulgaria will be 
pushed back, and that politicians will regard the 
unsuccessful referenda in France and the Netherlands as clear 
indications that voters are unhappy with further expansion of 
the EU. 
 
5. (C) The consultative process established last year to 
review with the USG, in advance, sales of sensitive military 
technology such as the VERA passive surveillance system, will 
remain in place after Winkler's departure this summer (Note: 
Winkler expects to be nominated to be the Czech Ambassador to 
the UK).  Winkler mentioned that current MFA political 
Director Martin Povejsil is likely to move up to a Deputy 
Minister position in the near future, and that he, rather 
than the incoming First Deputy FM Jaroslav Basta (currently 
Czech Ambassador to Moscow), will likely handle the security 
portfolio.  SepTel will discuss possible VERA sale to Vietnam. 
CABANISS