US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI2487

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002487 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ROBERT 
PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Cross Strait Politics, Military Issues, Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: Cross-Strait Relations, US Arms 
Procurement 
 
SUMMARY: 
 
1. Taiwan dailies June 7 carried reports on three main 
topics: China's military buildup, constitutional amendments, 
and a junior-high school exam in Taiwan.   With regard to 
the first topic, the pro-independence "Liberty Times," 
Taiwan's largest daily, and the pro-independence "Taiwan 
Daily" revealed the contents of a report on China's military 
strength conducted by U.S. Department of Defense.  The 
banner-headline on the front page of the "Liberty Times" 
announced that "China's Military Buildup is The Same As a 
Terrorist Threat"'; the "Taiwan Daily" carried a front-page 
banner-headline that read: "The United States Lists China's 
Military Buildup and International Terrorist's Actions As 
The Threats To Which The United States Should Be Most 
Alert." As to the second and the third topics, both the 
centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" and the conservative, 
pro-unification "United Daily News" carried reports on their 
front pages regarding the constitutional amendments that 
could possibly be passed today in the National Assembly, and 
the results of the fundamental ability exam for junior high 
school students. 
 
2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, the pro- 
independence "Liberty Times" editorialized that Taiwan 
should not be afraid of postponing talks with China, and 
added that there is no need to push for such talks.  The pro- 
independence "Taiwan Daily" said in the editorial that 
Taiwan should be harsh toward China to prevent another "Hsu 
Wen-lung" incident from occurring (i.e. when the Taiwan 
founder of the Chi-Mei Group was forced to show support for 
China's "Anti-Secession Law").  The pro-independence, 
English-language "Taipei Times" editorialized that Taiwan 
should pass the U.S. arms procurements bill to show Taiwan's 
resolution regarding self-defense, which would discourage 
China from carrying out its military buildup.  However, the 
conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
took a moderate stance and said in its editorial that no 
country, especially Taiwan, would benefit from the rivalry 
between the United States and China.  With regard to 
commentaries, Mainland Affairs Council Chairman Joseph Wu 
urged in a commentary in "The Taipei Times" that China must 
follow Taiwan's lead and become more democratic. 
 
A) "`Not Afraid of Postponing [Talks]' and No Need to `Push 
For Talks'" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 800,000] 
editorialized (6/7): 
 
" . As to China, [Taiwan's strategy of] `Not Afraid of 
Postponing [Talks]' is correct, but to `push for talks' is a 
terrible mistake.  Taiwan's independent sovereignty is the 
status quo, [so] why is Taiwan in a rush to conduct talks 
with China? Let us seriously remember that China has 
recently passed its `Anti-Secession Law,' authorizing the 
use of non-peaceful measures to counter Taiwan.  China's 
military threat to Taiwan is also on the rise.  China has 
treated Taiwan in a hegemonic way, and has utilized the 
measure of `countering Taiwan people by Taiwan people' to 
carry out its unification propaganda and to undermine unity 
between the Taiwan people.  Taiwan, however, `seeks talks' 
[with China] like a moth darting into a flame, and as a 
result is sending the wrong signal to the international 
community that the Taiwan people do not really care about 
China's military threat, and the Taiwan people might not 
even consider the existence of the threat.  If it happens to 
be so, no matter how the talk might proceed, Taiwan is 
doomed to be a loser." 
 
B) "If Taiwan, When Needed, Cannot Be Harsh Toward China, 
There Is a Possibility That the `Hsu Wen-lung' Incident 
Could Happen to Other Taiwan Merchants in China" 
 
The pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" [circulation: 150,000] 
editorialized (6/7): 
 
". The Beijing authorities know that the Taiwan government 
has no choice but to propose the peaceful route of 
`reconciliation and coexistence,' and China bullies the 
Taiwan merchants investing in China after figuring out that 
no one would defend them.  After the passage of time, there 
is possibility that some half-hearted Taiwan merchants based 
in China would have a biased mentality to `identify a thief 
as their father' [to identify China as their mother 
country].  Even Hsu Wen-lung, a local entrepreneur filled 
with a Taiwan-centered identity, would be hesitate to assert 
immediately his dissenting position regarding the DPP 
government's plan to overly seek `reconciliation and 
coexistence' [with China.]  An emotion of isolation and 
disappointment would gradually occur. 
 
"In fact, comparing it with other countries in the world, 
Taiwan has more of a position to show a stern attitude 
toward the Chinese government if necessary.  We can see that 
the United States has recently called upon China for an 
answer regarding China's military buildup, its human rights 
record, and the Tiananmen Square incident.  However, Taiwan 
has been very moderate on these issues. ." 
 
C) "Taking Rumsfeld's Warning to Heart" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
[circulation: 30,000] commented in an editorial (6/7): 
 
". The `China Threat Theory' is no longer a possibility - 
the threat is a reality.  Taiwan has had to deal with this 
threat on its own for some time, but now other countries are 
gradually beginning to get the message.  The Singapore 
meeting is just the starting point for international action, 
and hopefully we will see even more countries facing up to 
the threat posed by China's expansionism with more concrete 
action.  Perhaps this will all lead to new policies designed 
to contain China. 
 
"Taiwan is at the center of the First Island Chain, the 
front line constraining China's expansion.  It has 
shouldered this burden for more than 60 years, but now 
people in Taiwan and the U.S. are becoming increasingly 
concerned that it will become a breach in the chain.  The 
hurdles faced by the arms procurement bill in the 
legislature means that the imbalance in military strength 
between the two sides of the Strait will increase.  The lack 
of commitment to self-defense might encourage China to take 
advantage of the situation with a military move. 
 
". [U]nless Taiwan is willing to become China's docile pet, 
it should bare its teeth and win some respect.  It needs 
defensive weapons to do this.  The military gap between the 
two sides of the Strait is widening daily, causing the 
international community to lose its faith in the commitment 
of the Taiwanese people.  Eventually, if this is left 
unchecked, Taiwan will lose its self-confidence. 
 
"For Taiwan's sake and for regional security, the 
legislature should hold an additional session to pass the 
arms procurement bill as soon as possible." 
 
D) "Making China an Enemy" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China 
Post" [circulation: 30,000] editorialized (6/7): 
 
"Not a day goes by without hearing some American academic or 
a ranking or retired U.S. official warn against the 
potential danger China poses to the U.S. via Taiwan in five, 
10, or 30 years. 
 
"Senior U.S. officials, including Congressional leaders, 
have one after another come out recently to caution against 
the "China threat" in one way or another. 
 
"Washington used to criticize Beijing over trade and human 
rights issues but not directly challenge its military 
buildup. 
 
"In its forthcoming annual report on China's military, the 
Pentagon is said to depict the Chinese expansion in an 
`overly antagonistic picture'. 
 
"Last week, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld forcefully 
charged at an international forum in Singapore that Beijing 
spends too much on its military buildup, risking a military 
imbalance in the Asia-Pacific region. 
 
"Beijing earlier this year announced a 12.6 percent increase 
in military spending to roughly US$30 billion.  Though it is 
about one 15th of the Pentagon's budget, Rumsfeld deemed it 
was too much. 
 
"The U.S. and its ally Japan have also announced for the 
first time that Taiwan is under their security umbrella and 
threatened the European Union with sanctions if EU lifts a 
16-year-old arms embargo on China. 
 
"Since March, Beijing has bound itself by a domestic law to 
attack Taiwan if the island tries to break the status quo by 
declaring independence.  Washington's new hostility toward 
Beijing has sparked fears of regional division and 
instability. 
 
"Rivalry between the world's sole superpower and the most 
populous and economically thriving country benefits no one, 
especially Taiwan." 
 
E) "China Must Follow Taiwan's Lead" 
 
Joseph Wu, Chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council 
commented in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei 
Times" [circulation: 30,000] (6/7): 
 
". [T]he question of whether or not China will adopt liberal 
democracy is an important benchmark for Taiwan as it 
considers its future relationship with China. 
 
". [S]ome people may take an optimistic opinion that the 
fourth generation of CCP leaders will be more flexible and 
pragmatic, and that they will allow gradual liberalization 
and political reform.  There is, however, a difference 
between expectations and real life. 
 
". Only by learning from Taiwan's political development can 
the CCP build a new China." 
 
PAAL