US embassy cable - 05SINGAPORE1789

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SINGAPORE 001789 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY ZOELLICK 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/10/2015 
TAGS: OVIP, PREL, PGOV, ECON, KNNP, ETTC, CH, TW, KS, IN, IZ 
SUBJECT: DEPUTY SECRETARY ZOELLICK'S MAY 10 MEETING WITH 
MINISTER MENTOR LEE KUAN YEW 
 
1. (U) Classified by: Ambassador Franklin L. Lavin.  Reason 
1.4(d) 
 
2. (U) Date Time and Place: May 10, 2005, 5:00PM, Istana, 
Singapore 
 
3. (U) Participants: 
 
U.S. 
---- 
 
The Deputy Secretary 
Ambassador Franklin Lavin 
E/P Counselor Laurent Charbonnet (Notetaker) 
 
SINGAPORE 
--------- 
 
MM Lee Kuan Yew 
MM's Principal Private Secretary Lee Seow Hiang 
MFA North America Branch Edna Chia (Notetaker) 
 
4. (C) Summary: Deputy Secretary Zoellick and Singapore's 
senior statesman, 81-year-old Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew, 
exchanged perspectives on cross-Strait tensions, the 
emergence of India and China as strategic powers, the 
threat posed by North Korea and the promise of a new 
beginning in Iraq and progress in the Middle East.  In a 
wide-ranging, 95-minute meeting, Lee reported that China's 
leaders remained fixated on Taiwan but believed that the 
cross-Strait situation had become more stable in recent 
months.  Lee judged the current President of South Korea, 
Roh Mo-Hyun, incapable of dealing effectively with the 
North, which, for its part would be unlikely to willingly 
give up its nuclear capability.  Over the next ten to 
twenty years, China and India would emerge as world-class 
powers, which would change the global political and 
economic dynamic.  The United States would need to work 
effectively with them but would not successfully "co-opt" 
them, Lee cautioned.  Lee admitted that prospects for 
resolution of problems in the Middle East had improved, and 
commented that growing Iraqi public disdain for murderous 
insurgents would lead to increased intelligence leads for 
security forces there.  End Summary. 
 
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China and Taiwan 
---------------- 
 
5. (C)  China's new generation of leaders are concerned 
about proving their political legitimacy, said Lee, and 
feel they cannot simply postpone dealing with the Taiwan 
issue.  China's leaders strongly want a stable world and 
regional political environment so they can continue to 
concentrate on economic growth and alleviating the economic 
disparity and tensions between the rural and the urban 
populations.  That said, they continue to view everything 
through the prism of Taiwan.  Lee recounted a conversation 
with former Party School vice director Zheng Bijian, in 
which Lee warned Zheng that any PRC moves against Taiwan 
would lead to military conflict with the United States, 
which would be a disaster for the region.  Zheng replied, 
"perhaps that is our fate."  But China's leaders, claimed 
Lee, also believe the Taiwan situation has stabilized in 
recent months and will remain so "as long as George Bush is 
President."  The Deputy Secretary pointed to the very clear 
cautionary statements the United States has made to both 
sides as a departure and improvement over the previous 
ambiguity.  He also described his plans to establish 
a strategic dialogue with China that would cover both 
economic and political issues, an initiative that Minister 
Mentor Lee strongly endorsed. Lee remarked on the political 
capital China has gained in Southeast Asia, pointing to the 
recent Chinese pledges to assist Indonesia in 
infrastructure development as an example of China's 
outreach. 
 
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The Korean Peninsula 
-------------------- 
 
6. (C) Lee had been "very unimpressed" with new South 
Korean President Roh Moo-Hyun, who he said is not a 
strategic thinker and does not understand the forces and 
emotions with which he is dealing.  "He is playing a silly 
game and does not understand he is playing for keeps," Lee 
added. The United States will probably just have to wait 
for a new South Korean government to make progress on the 
Peninsula.  As Roh's party "could not win again," it might 
not take long.  The Deputy Secretary cautioned that 
the unstable situation in North Korea might not give us the 
luxury of waiting for change in the South Korean 
government. Both men agreed that China remained critical to 
resolution of the threat of North Korea.  Unfortunately, 
said Lee, China will "sell anything to anybody" and thus 
contributed to proliferation and growth in North Korea's 
arsenal.  The Chinese are concerned about the situation in 
the North in the short term, but don't understand they are 
undercutting their own security in the long term by helping 
North Korea develop weapons.  The Deputy Secretary 
noted current U.S. efforts to curtail North Korea's illegal 
activities, including proliferation.  Lee declared that 
North Korea's leadership had little incentive to do 
anything which could lead to them losing power as they have 
committed so many crimes over the years that "they know 
they will end up in The Hague."  Lee predicted the North 
"will never willingly give up the nuclear option," yet 
North Korea's remaining nuclear-capable will eventually 
spur Japan to develop nuclear weapons and become much more 
independent in thinking.  The Deputy Secretary countered 
that the peace movement ran deeply within the Japanese 
polity and that pressure from Asian neighbors and the 
risk-aversion of its own aging population would tend to 
check the potential for Japan's re-militarization. 
 
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Emerging China and India to Shape 21st Century 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
7. (C)  The key challenge facing the United States and the 
West in the coming decades will be the economic and 
cultural re-emergence of China and India, said Lee.  Both 
consider themselves deserving of status as world class 
powers in their own right.  A "simplistic" approach trying 
to co-opt India and China will not work, he averred. 
"India will not agree to become an ally of Japan and the 
United States to contain China," said Lee.  The Deputy 
Secretary laid out U.S. hopes to continue to expand our 
 
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relationship with India, building on our shared traits as 
two large democracies, expanding trade and investment, and 
increasing our strategic and military cooperation. 
 
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The Middle East and Progress in Iraq 
------------------------------------ 
 
8. (C)  The Deputy Secretary recounted for Lee his 
recent trip to Iraq and the strong impressions he took away 
of the quality of the newly elected government leaders and 
their ambitions to build a new, democratic nation.  Lee 
noted that the insurgents in Iraq were being revealed as 
mere murderers of fellow Iraqis and predicted that, as this 
understanding spread among the population, more and more 
information would begin flowing to security forces about 
them.  More broadly, the Middle East has changed in ways no 
one could have predicted four years ago, said the Deputy 
Secretary. Lee agreed that opportunities for significant 
 
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progress in the Middle East were emerging, and that 
successful resolution of long-standing issues there could 
change the region, and even the world, for the better. 
In the long-term, however, changes in the Middle East would 
not have the world-shifting effect of the changes now 
underway in Asia, he claimed. 
LAVIN