US embassy cable - 05CAIRO4264

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 004264 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EG, Ayman Nour, Ghad Party 
SUBJECT: EGYPT: ANOTHER BLOW TO THE GHAD PARTY 
 
REF: A. CAIRO 3840 
 
     B. CAIRO 2506 
     C. CAIRO 2285 
     D. CAIRO 2254 
     E. CAIRO 1926 
     F. 04 CAIRO 8355 
 
Classified by ECPO Counselor John Desrocher for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) The Ghad Party, the beleaguered liberal/secular 
political party founded by Ayman Nour, has suffered another 
severe setback with the late May resignation of 
Secretary-General Mona Makram Ebeid.  Ebeid, a 
 
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widely-respected figure, had lent both stature and substance 
to the fledgling party.  Her departure compounds the woes of 
a party which, after a heady and optimistic launch last fall 
(ref F), is now beset with harassment and intimidation (ref 
A), riven by factions, and sapped of resources, direction, 
and momentum at a time when it should be preparing to field 
candidates in the fall's parliamentary elections.  Party 
leader Ayman Nour is set to go on trial on June 28 on 
criminal forgery charges - in a case he and his supporters 
maintain was manufactured by political enemies within the GOE 
bent on derailing the Ghad.  With Ebeid's departure, and 
Nour's imminent trial, it is difficult to be sanguine about 
the Ghad Party's prospects.  End summary. 
 
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Another Blow 
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2. (C) On May 28, Mona Makram Ebeid, Secretary-General of the 
Ghad Party, announced her resignation.  The move constitutes 
a severe blow to a party which has been reeling and on the 
verge of implosion since the late January arrest of party 
leader Ayman Nour and his subsequent indictment on criminal 
forgery charges.  Ebeid is a Coptic academic, former Member 
of Parliament, and daughter of a prestigious family with a 
prominent role in Egypt's historic nationalist movement. 
Ebeid was a founding member of the Ghad Party and had lent it 
considerable stature, particularly since she was elected 
Secretary-General at the first party conference in November 
 
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2004.  In a recent meeting with U.S. officials, Interior 
Minister Habib Adly could barely conceal his glee at Ebeid's 
departure, asserting that she had "realized her association" 
with Nour and his party was "damaging her distinguished 
reputation." 
 
3. (C) In a June 5 interview with the tabloid al-Osboa, Ebeid 
asserted that her primary reason for leaving was her 
assessment that the party's internal rifts had become 
impossible because of the presence of "opportunists who do 
not really believe in the party's liberal agenda."  Though 
apparently reluctant to criticize Ayman Nour in harsh terms, 
she opined that his eagerness to cast party recruitment nets 
widely, rather than forming a smaller core, had led to the 
inclusion in the party of too many diverse personalities 
pursuing their own agendas. 
 
4. (C) In a recent conversation with poloff, Ghad Party Vice 
President for foreign relations Hisham Kassem (protect) 
expressed frustration and disdain at Ebeid's resignation. 
"She picked the worst possible time to leave," he opined, 
noting that party leader Ayman Nour's trial is a matter of 
weeks away. 
 
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Comment 
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5. (C) The Ghad's cohesiveness and potential longevity was 
uncertain even during its brief honeymoon in late 2004, but 
the January arrest and subsequent indictment of Nour on 
criminal forgery charges put intense pressure on the party, 
dividing its leadership into factions and prompting 
defections, including most recently and damagingly, that of 
Ebeid. 
 
6. (C) Many credible observers believe the hobbling, if not 
the actual destruction, of the party has been an objective of 
hardliners within ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) for 
some time.  According to multiple accounts, Nour infuriated 
NDP strongmen Kamal el-Shazly and Safwat El-Sherif when he 
refused to join the consensus of opposition parties, hammered 
out at the "national dialogue" of political parties chaired 
by Sherif, that the issue of constitutional reform could be 
deferred until after the 2005 elections.  Ironically, (or 
purposefully), Mubarak announced his constitutional reform 
initiative only weeks after the opposition parties caved in 
on their own constitutional reform demands at the urging of 
Sherif and Shazly. 
 
7. (C) Nour's late January arrest triggered an immediate 
crisis in the party, with rival factions emerging - some 
taking advantage of the vacuum to jockey for position and 
others bickering furiously over whether U.S./international 
support should be welcomed or rejected.  Nour's wife, herself 
a party office holder, and other party contacts asserted that 
those factions pushing for "a rejection of foreign 
interference" were doing so at the urging of Egyptian State 
Security, which has allegedly taken a close interest in the 
party's internal affairs.  Ghad Party contacts also accuse 
State Security and the ruling NDP of instigating sustained 
harassment and intimidation of party leadership and 
supporters (charges detailed in ref A). 
 
8. (C) With Nour's trial set to begin at the end of June, it 
is difficult to be sanguine about the party's prospects. 
Nour and his supporters continue to insist that he is 
innocent of the forgery charges.  The forged signatures on 
the party's licensing documents, Nour and supporters 
maintain, were placed there by NDP/GOE operatives who had 
penetrated the party and Nour's private law office for the 
express purpose of sabotage.  Embassy contacts, including 
prominent reform advocates disagree sharply about Nour and 
his bone fides.  While he has some support among reformers 
and on the street, many others dismiss him as a slick 
opportunist. 
 
9. (C) Even most of those quick to disdain Nour, however, 
generally add that they believe the case against him was 
instigated by his political enemies in the government.  At a 
minimum, most agree, Nour is facing a politically-motivated 
and selective prosecution aimed at destroying his reputation 
and taking him out of the game.  Though the Ghad Party's saga 
is not yet complete, many interpret its sinking fortunes as a 
cautionary tale about what happens when political parties and 
their leaders become too aggressive about competing for power 
in Egypt.  End comment. 
 
 
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GRAY 
 
#4264