US embassy cable - 05PARIS3924

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 003924 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2015 
TAGS: PREL, KDEM, PGOV, PHUM, ET, FR 
SUBJECT: FRENCH REACTIONS TO ETHIOPIAN POST-ELECTION PERIOD 
 
REF: STATE 99185 
 
Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Paul J. Mailhot for reasons 1 
.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Embassy Africa watcher discussed developments in 
Ethiopia with MFA AF DAS-equivalent Jean-Christophe Belliard 
June 6.  Belliard recounted that he had recently discussed 
Ethiopia with NSC Africa Advisor Courville and UK FCO AF 
A/S-equivalent in London.  During that meeting, he said, 
there was general agreement that, with the opposition 
claiming victory and the government engaged in cheating, 
there could be disorder not only in Addis, but also in the 
countryside, where people were, for the first time, daring to 
criticize the government.  Belliard said that HMG had agreed 
to prepare a paper developing a common position of the 
witnesses to the Algiers accords, but had not yet done so. 
Belliard said he would be in touch with the British to remind 
them. 
 
2. (C) Belliard said that, in addition to disorder, the 
second concern was that Isaias might see an opportunity to 
push for the recovery of Badme, leading to a new, 
catastrophic Ethiopia/Eritrea war.  Belliard offered that 
Eritrea had more to lose in this situation, assessing that 
Ethiopia would drive the Eritreans "into the sea."  Belliard 
recounted that UNSYG Annan had, at the May 29 conference on 
Darfur in Addis, stressed to the Ethiopian PM Meles the need 
to stop GFDRE efforts to manipulate the election results. 
Annan, he said, had also urged the opposition to remain calm 
and avoid violence. 
 
3. (C) Belliard opined that the decision to delay the 
announcement of the election results by one month may not be 
a bad thing, giving both sides time to calm down.  The 
question, he said, was whether the Election Commission would 
be able to manage a situation caught between the demands of 
the GFDRE to accelerate their work, and opposition demands to 
slow down.  Belliard characterized the opposition's 
leadership as reasonable, and willing to play by the rules, 
but speculated that grass roots supporters might be less 
patient. 
 
4. (C) We asked several times whether, beyond acting through 
the EU, France would be making any statement or engaging with 
the parties on a bilateral basis.  Belliard avoided 
responding, but tacitly acknowledged that France would not be 
taking a high-profile position on Ethiopia.  He told us that 
the MFA Africa directorate had been arguing against a 
proposed trip by former FM Barnier to make a policy speech on 
Africa in Addis, implying that, with Barnier now having left 
office, the trip was now a non-issue. 
WOLFF