US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI2476

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002476 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, TW 
SUBJECT: MA TAKES EARLY LEAD IN KMT RACE 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Despite attempts by KMT elders to draft Lien 
Chan for a third term, the two candidates for the KMT 
chairmanship, Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou and Legislative Yuan 
(LY) President Wang Jin-pyng, have begun their official 
campaigns in earnest.  While Lien is not expected to formally 
announce his intentions until June 8, a senior KMT official 
told AIT that Lien will relinquish his post, retaining 
control only over cross-Strait policy in order to "continue 
to cause trouble for Chen Shui-bian."  Despite opposition to 
Ma's candidacy from KMT stalwarts, including Ma's own father, 
the KMT's internal polls indicate that the Taipei Mayor 
enjoys a decisive edge in the lead-up to the July 16 
election.  KMT officials expect a Chairman Ma to set a more 
conciliatory tone in relations with the ruling party, and 
suggest that he may offer action on the Special Defense 
Procurement Budget as an early goodwill gesture.  KMT 
officials warn, however, that if Ma wins, he will face an 
uphill battle to consolidate control over the party, 
especially if Lien loyalists try to use their control over 
party assets to derail Ma's reform agenda.  End Summary. 
 
Lien: Does He Mean It This Time? 
-------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) The KMT Chairmanship race formally got underway June 1 
with a special party Central Standing Committee (CSC) meeting 
held to hear candidates Ma Ying-jeou and Wang Jin-pyng 
explain their policy visions.  The June 1 meeting came amidst 
continued media speculation over Lien's intentions regarding 
his personal political future.  Lien has avoided explicitly 
stating his plans for contesting the post, encouraging party 
elders and Lien loyalists to continue with their campaign to 
press Ma and Wang to withdraw from the race and allow Lien to 
be re-elected uncontested.  Party elders, including Ma's own 
father, have publicly warned that if either Ma or Wang were 
elected, the party would collapse into rival factions.  In 
response to these conflicting messages, Wang has repeatedly 
announced his intention to withdraw from the race if Lien 
were to seek a third term.  Wang told AIT that while he does 
not want Lien to stay on, he does "not dare" say anything 
negative about Lien for fear that Lien and his supporters 
will attempt to smear Wang in the same way they have attacked 
Ma over his steadfast refusal to offer Lien an uncontested 
third term. 
 
Apparently So 
------------- 
 
3. (C) Speculation notwithstanding, KMT Organizational 
Affairs Director Liao Feng-te, a Lien loyalist, told AIT that 
Lien has already made up his mind to allow for an open 
election on July 16 and will make clear his intentions on 
June 8.  Liao asserted that Lien will use his position as 
Chairman of the KMT's National Policy Foundation to maintain 
control over cross-Strait policy, but will allow his 
successor a free hand over all other elements of KMT 
operations.  Liao asserted that this plan benefits both Lien 
and his replacement.  On the one hand, Liao said that Lien 
will be able to "continue to cause trouble for Chen 
Shui-bian" by unveiling potentially popular PRC economic 
concessions he knows Chen will be forced to reject due to 
opposition from within his own camp.  At the same time, Liao 
said that Lien could reduce the burden of the KMT's 
fundamentally unpopular policy line on sovereignty and 
cross-Strait relations on the party's 2008 presidential 
candidate by making Lien the main target of Pan-Green smear 
efforts.  Ma loyalist and veteran KMT legislator Wu Ten-yi 
offered a similar scenario, but disputed claims by Lien 
supporters that Lien will play anything more than a symbolic 
role in cross-Strait relations.  However, long-time Lien 
confidante Ding Mou-shih told the AIT Director that Lien 
expects to retain a "supervisory" role after stepping down. 
 
Ma By a Mile? 
------------- 
 
4. (C) With most KMT officials confident that Lien is on his 
way out, attention is turning to the Wang/Ma contest.  Liao, 
who will oversee the KMT election, said he had no doubt that 
Ma will win the Chairmanship despite efforts by political 
leaders across the spectrum to sabotage the popular Mayor's 
chances.  Liao said that Wang is the favorite of the 
political elite because he, in one way or another, owes 
something to everyone, including Lien, President Chen 
Shui-bian, People First Party Chairman James Soong, and 
former President Lee Teng-hui.  In contrast, Ma would enjoy a 
popular mandate that would insulate him from manipulation by 
other political actors.  According to KMT internal polls, 
Liao said that Ma will not only win the KMT election, but 
will win in a landslide.  Liao said that Wang's hope of 
wooing enough Lien's supporters to challenge Ma's lead is 
wishful thinking, since the combined support rates for Wang 
and Lien are far below Ma's poll numbers. 
 
5. (C) KMT Taipei City Councilor, and Ma supporter, Chen 
Yu-mei told AIT that poll numbers may not necessarily 
translate into votes on July 16 since the election will be 
determined by those who actually cast ballots rather than by 
those who talk to pollsters.  Chen noted that Wang has been 
spending large amount of cash to mobilize local support 
networks around the island, a tactic Ma has steadfastly 
refused to employ.  While Chen did not rule out the 
possibility that Wang could buy enough votes to win, she said 
her own supporters have reacted negatively to Wang's 
organizational offensive.  In addition to working the KMT's 
grassroots base, Wang has also attempted to enlist members of 
the KMT Legislative Yuan (LY) Caucus to mobilize votes. 
While most LY members have publicly declared for Wang, a 
number of KMT legislators have told AIT privately that they 
prefer Ma and will not ask their followers to cast ballots 
for Wang. 
 
Winning is the Easy Part 
------------------------ 
 
6. (C) Even strong Ma supporters warn that Ma would have a 
much harder time of consolidating a victory than Wang.  Ma 
loyalist Wu told AIT that the Taipei Mayor will inherit a 
disaster from Lien in terms of personnel, finances, and 
public image.  Wu said it is very much possible that Ma will 
also assume responsibility for the KMT's massive liabilities 
without access to any of its equally massive assets, 
asserting that rumors over moves by Lien loyalists to shift 
KMT assets into outside accounts may have some validity. 
Taipei City Council's Chen said she fully expects Lien aides 
to use their control over party assets to demand concessions 
from Ma over party positions and policies.  Chen said that 
the squeaky clean Ma would be loathe to agree to any quid pro 
quos, setting the stage for a possible early showdown between 
Ma and KMT power brokers.  Lien loyalist Liao said that Ma's 
personality may pose the greatest challenge to post-election 
unity, noting that Ma may find the KMT a much more difficult 
place to manage than the Taipei City government or the 
Ministry of Justice.  "As party Chairman, you need to have 
strong interpersonal skills and a willingness to work with 
different factions and interests," Liao remarked, "these do 
not come natural to Ma." 
 
7. (C) KMT officials also warn that Ma will have considerably 
less influence over the LY Caucus than Lien currently enjoys, 
especially if he is unable to reconcile with Wang.  Wang told 
AIT that no matter who wins on July 16, there is no chance 
that he and Ma could work out a cooperative relationship 
given their diametrically opposed personalities and political 
styles.  The depth of this animosity was on display earlier 
in the year, when Wang opened his formal bid for the 
Chairmanship race.  After taking a bite out of a 
congratulatory cake sent by Ma, Wang proclaimed before TV 
cameras that "it's sweet, just like our relationship."  Not 
ten minutes later, Wang told AIT in private that "ignore 
those media reports that say we are on friendly terms, I 
never talk to that man, I can't stand him." 
 
8. (C) Ma-Wang frictions notwithstanding, KMT officials say 
that there is some validity to President Chen's recent claim 
that government-opposition party relations will improve after 
Lien steps down.  Lien loyalist Liao said that the current 
friction between the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and 
KMT is mostly personal.  "Lien despises Chen as a country 
bumpkin who has twice deprived Lien of a presidency that he 
believes is rightfully his," Liao stated, adding that "Lien's 
primary motivation on every issue is to deprive Chen of any 
policy successes."  KMT Legislator Wu said that while the KMT 
would continue to confront the DPP government on a number of 
domestic and cross-Strait issues, Lien's departure will 
remove a major hurdle for LY action on the Special Defense 
Procurement Budget.  Wu said that Ma would likely seek to use 
the Special Budget as a gesture to show that he is sincere in 
his desire to shape the KMT into a responsible opposition 
party. 
 
Has Ma's Chance Finally Arrived? 
-------------------------------- 
 
9. (C) After months of speculation and uncertainty, Ma's 
decision to press ahead with his candidacy for the KMT 
Chairmanship appears to be finally paying off.  Barring a 
surprise announcement on June 8 by Lien, the KMT will proceed 
with the first open election for party leader in its history. 
 While Wang and Lien loyalists are already employing media 
smear tactics and are likely to seek to manipulate voting in 
Wang's favor, Ma's lead in the polls appears to give him a 
decisive advantage.  Regardless of how dirty his opponents 
get during the campaign, Ma will need to tread cautiously in 
order to avoid offending core KMT interests groups.  An 
election that produced a KMT Chairman unable to control the 
party's finances or legislative Caucus would be a personal 
disaster for Ma and a serious threat to the KMT's prospects 
in 2008. 
PAAL