US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI2472

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002472 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ROBERT 
PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Domestic Politics, Foreign Policy, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: Cross-Strait Relations 
 
SUMMARY: 
 
1. Taiwan dailies June 4-6 carried reports on two topics in 
particular: U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's 
criticism of China's military expansion and President Chen 
Shui-bian's willingness to meet with China's President Hu 
Jintao in the United States.  With regard to the first 
topic, both the pro-independence "Liberty Times," Taiwan's 
largest daily, and "Taiwan Daily" carried on their front 
pages June 5 articles on Rumsfeld's criticism of China.  As 
to the second topic, the pro-independence "Liberty Times," 
"Taiwan Daily," and the conservative, pro-unification 
"United Daily News" carried on their front pages June 4 
President Chen's suggestion that he meet with Hu in the 
United States. 
 
2. Roughly half of the editorials in the local newspapers 
published between June 4 -6 focused on domestic politics: 
e.g. local tax reform, press freedom, the minor reshuffle of 
the Cabinet, etc.  The other half focused on U.S. Secretary 
of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's criticism toward China, and 
cross-Strait relations.  The pro-independence "Liberty 
Times" editorialized that even the United States worries 
about China's military buildup -- there is no way for Taiwan 
to talk peace to China.  The centrist, pro-status quo "China 
Times" said in its editorial that Taiwan should monitor 
closely whether there is a U.S. policy shift toward China. 
The editorial of the pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" urged 
Taiwan's Pan-Blue alliance to abandon its dream of accepting 
the "One China" principle in exchange for peace across the 
Strait. 
 
3. In terms of cross-Strait relations, a pro-independence 
"Taiwan Daily" editorial suggested U.S President George W. 
Bush invite President Chen Shui-bian and China's President 
Hu Jintao to meet in the United States.  However, another 
"Taiwan Daily" editorial said the timing for such a meeting 
is inappropriate for Taiwan.  The pro-independence "Liberty 
Times" editorialized that Taiwan should not allow Chinese 
tourists to visit Taiwan.  Finally, an editorial in the 
conservative, pro-unification English-language "China Post" 
said the Taiwan government still has great hope in the 
Straits Exchange Foundation since the government has 
appointed a political heavyweight, DPP Legislator Chang Chun- 
hsiung, to become the foundation's new chairman. End 
summary. 
 
1. U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's statement 
 
A) "How Can A Sheep Talk Peace to a Tiger?" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 800,000] 
editorialized (6/6): 
 
". Even the United States, located in the eastern part of 
the Pacific Ocean, feels the Chinese threat -- how can 
Taiwan, located in the western part of the Pacific Ocean and 
close to China, continue to be numb [in the face of this 
threat]? . China has chosen Taiwan as a target for a 
breakthrough [of its containment,] and China also has 
planned to absorb Taiwan as a step to entering the Pacific 
Ocean.  Taiwan's political parties, however, still have the 
fantasy that China would bestow peace [to Taiwan], and they 
hope China would proactively withdraw and destroy its 
missiles [aimed at Taiwan].  As a consequence, the U.S. arms 
procurements bill still runs aground in the Legislative 
Yuan.  Nowadays, some political figures even consider that 
Taiwan should not care about its national security.  Either 
China would show goodwill to Taiwan, or the United States 
would come to Taiwan's aid.  A country [i.e. Taiwan], under 
the gigantic military threat from another country, that does 
not talk about defense capabilities but peace is the same as 
a sheep that tries to talk peace to a tiger.  The miserable 
consequence [of such actions] is self-evident." 
 
B) "The Smell of Gunpowder In the Shangri-La Dialogue" 
 
The centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 
600,000] editorialized (6/6): 
 
". With regard to U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald 
Rumsfeld's statement, Taiwan would be the most concerned 
whether the United States would shift its policy again:  if 
the focus of the United States shifts from the Middle East 
to Asia Pacific, will the hawkish views, [like those which] 
Rumsfeld holds, return again?  Should Taiwan revise its 
current attitude of reconciliation with Beijing to act in 
accordance with the Bush administration's policy shift? 
 
". One thing is for sure, however, [and that is] that the 
Taiwan issue is definitely a part of the triangular 
interactions between the United States, Japan, and China. 
It is not very clear how the consequent situation might 
evolve, and time is needed to conduct analysis." 
 
C) "Rumsfeld's Talk Shows that the United States Has Worried 
That China's Military Buildup Would Cause an Imbalance of 
Military Strength in Asia, and Taiwan's Political Parties 
Should be Vigilant" 
 
The pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" [circulation: 150,000] 
editorialized (6/6): 
 
"As to Taiwan, especially the Pan-Blue alliance, U.S. 
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's warning should wake 
 
SIPDIS 
[them] up [from believing] the myth that as long as Taiwan 
accepts the `One China' [principle], cross-Strait peace can 
be maintained.  The Pan-Blue parties and supporters have 
always considered that as long as Taiwan accepts China's 
preconditions, Taiwan's stability could be maintained.  In 
fact, cross-Strait relations are not merely the relationship 
between China and Taiwan.  China not only threatens Taiwan's 
security, but world peace as well; cross-Strait issues [are 
not composed of] Taiwan being provocative toward China, but 
definitely that China threatens Taiwan and the world.  As 
long as one understands this critical point, insists on 
Taiwan's peace plan, and keeps Taiwan's national personality 
can Taiwan obtain stability and peace under [Taiwan's] 
global strategic plan. ." 
 
2. Cross-Strait Relations 
 
A) "Objective Conditions Have Not Matured Yet, Now Is Not 
the Good Time for a Meeting or Dialogue Between Cross-Strait 
Leaders" 
 
The pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" [circulation: 150,000] 
editorialized (6/6): 
 
". Just as U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has 
openly questioned the evil intention of China's fast 
expansion of military forces, we believe that the [Taiwan] 
ruling authority, when prioritizing issues related to cross- 
Strait relations, should seek alliance with world democratic 
nations to urge China to remove its missiles deployed 
against Taiwan, build a cross-Strait military confidence 
mechanism, and go on to sign a nonaggression agreement 
rather than look forward with goodwill to a `Bian-Hu 
meeting.'  Only after all these objective conditions mature 
and form the bases can a `Bian-Hu meeting' or other future 
meetings between cross-Strait leaders make any progress that 
is helpful for the people on both sides across the Strait." 
 
B) "We Suggest That U.S. President Bush Invite Cross-Strait 
Leaders Chen Shui-bian and Hu Jintao to Formally Meet in 
Washington" 
 
The pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" [circulation: 150,000] 
suggested in an editorial (6/4): 
 
". In addition, concluding from the current cross-Strait 
atmosphere, there is indeed the necessity for leaders of the 
two sides to hold formal meetings in order to resolve cross- 
Strait disputes and ease the cross-Strait situation. 
However, under the circumstances that Chen Shui-bian does 
not want to go to China and Hu Jintao is unlikely to visit 
Taiwan for a `Bian-Hu meeting,' the best alternative is to 
follow the formula set in the late 1970s.  Through the 
mediation of Jimmy Carter, the incumbent U.S. President at 
the time, Israel and the PLO signed a `peace treaty' at Camp 
David.  [Following this,] President George W. Bush can 
invite leaders across the Strait to start the historical 
`Bian-Hu meeting' in Washington.  We believe that this is 
the meeting place where both governments can accept.  After 
all, any meetings on and resolutions to cross-Strait issues 
cannot rule out the witnessing and blessing by the 
international community. 
 
"Furthermore, since the United States is so eager and 
hopeful to see obstacles against the talks be eliminated  . 
to pave the way for the next-step meetings, probably the 
Bush administration can ask the Beijing authorities not to 
boycott President Chen's participation in person at the 
informal APEC Leaders Meeting. ." 
 
C) "[We Should] Never Open Up for Chinese Tourists to Come 
to Taiwan: Securing European, American and Japanese High- 
Spending Tourist Is the Best Approach" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 800,000] 
editorialized (6/3): 
" . China, via policy statements and actions several times, 
has made clear its obvious intention to devour Taiwan with 
thousands of schemes; the legal war highlighted by anti- 
secession law, plus public opinions war, propaganda war, and 
frequently-waged reunification war are all China's means to 
grab Taiwan and force Taiwan to undergo the communists' 
regime. Since China's foremost intention toward Taiwan is 
thus, when we evaluate [the issue of] Chinese people coming 
to Taiwan for sightseeing, we cannot do without 
consideration for the enemy's situation and security 
concerns and we cannot only consider the probable bright 
side for short-term business opportunities or economic 
benefits and ignore the accompanying external cost or 
comprehensive negative effects, or even further turn a blind 
eye to the Beijing government's penetration and espionage 
actions, which certainly will happen, through [Chinese] 
tourists coming to Taiwan. 
 
" .It is true that because of a huge population and 
prosperous economic development in recent years, the number 
of Chinese tourists going abroad has exceeded that of 
Japanese tourists two years ago and reached over 16 million 
person-time. Although Chinese tourists have brought 
commercial benefits to other countries via tourism and 
shopping, and especially helped revitalized HKSAR's economy, 
they have also generated many negative effects. Things such 
as fundamental economic principles have told the public, 
there is no free lunch in this world." 
 
D) "Chang Brings Heft to SEF" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China 
Post" [circulation: 30,000] editorialized  (6/5): 
 
". The appointment of Chang to head the SEF suggests that 
the Taiwan government still envisions that the SEF will 
remain a conduit for cross-Strait negotiations.  Otherwise 
there would be no need to appoint a political heavyweight 
such as Chang for the role. 
 
"Chang's record speaks for itself in terms of the weight he 
carries within the DPP.  He has served as premier, as DPP 
chairman and as a senior lawmaker.  He has also had a close 
relationship with President Chen Shui-bian since the time 
when the two were defense attorneys at the trial following 
the Kaohsiung incident. ." 
 
PAAL