US embassy cable - 05ABUDHABI2497

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABU DHABI 002497 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2015 
TAGS: PREL, KDEM, IZ, TC 
SUBJECT: POST VIEWS ON OUTREACH TO IRAQIS IN UAE 
 
REF: A. STATE 99829 
 
     B. ABU DHABI 2090 
     C. ABU DHABI 1680 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR MICHELE J. SISON, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C)  Summary:  The Embassy has considered ways to 
accelerate engagement with Iraq's Sunni Arab community (ref 
A), and believes that there could be a role for the UAEG in 
using its good offices to bring together U.S. and ITG 
officials with influential Sunni leaders.  Abu Dhabi Crown 
Prince Mohammed bin Zayed and Minister of State Hamdan bin 
Zayed are close to former IIG PM Iyad Allawi, a moderate Shia 
trusted by the UAEG leadership.  UAE leaders have been vocal 
supporters of the Iraqi political process, and remain deeply 
concerned about the lack of Sunni participation.  For these 
reasons, we believe they could be prevailed upon to host 
quiet trilateral discussions in coordination with Allawi et 
al.  They might be less inclined to invest their political 
capital on Sunni Arab elder statesman and part-time Abu Dhabi 
resident Adnan Pachachi, whom they regard as having less 
clout in Iraq today.  We do not know of any other Sunni Arab 
Iraqis resident in the UAE who could be encouraged to play a 
useful role in Iraqi politics.  We will continue to monitor 
Iraqi visitors who may be using Dubai in particular as a 
business or meeting center in an effort to identify players 
with whom we might usefully engage.  End Summary. 
 
Allawi Friendship with Abu Dhabi Leadership Could Facilitate 
Dialogue 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
2.  (C)  Former Iraqi interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi 
developed close relationships with the Abu Dhabi leadership, 
in particular with Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed and 
his brother, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of State for 
Foreign Affairs, Sheikh Hamdan bin Zayed, during his 
frequent, largely unpublicized visits to the UAE.  Both 
Sheikh Mohammed and Hamdan have told USG officials that they 
wished the moderate Allawi had succeeded in the elections. 
Sheikh Hamdan told Ambassador that he and Sheikh Mohammed 
regard Allawi as a friend.  Sheikh Hamdan said that he had 
briefed Allawi on our Iraq policy, including our mutual 
desire to encourage the Sunni Arab community to participate 
peacefully in the political process (ref B).  The Embassy 
believes the UAEG would be willing to use its good offices to 
facilitate communication between the USG, ITG and influential 
Sunnis.  If such an approach were of interest, we would 
recommend that Baghdad work this with Allawi and ask him to 
pitch it to MbZ and HbZ to parallel a USG request to the 
Emiratis. 
 
Iraqi Expatriates Rarely Play a Political Role 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
3.  (C)  The UAE provides an economic and political safe 
haven for approximately 50,000 Iraqi nationals, including 
Shia's, Sunnis, and Kurds, some of whom moved here more than 
three decades ago in search of economic opportunities or to 
escape political persecution.  The vast majority of Iraqi 
expatriates are professionals who strongly supported the war 
and the installation of a new democratic government.  Most 
Iraqi expatriates appear content with their lifestyle in the 
UAE and are not looking to enter politics.  Even the largest 
Iraqi organizations in the UAE ) the Iraqi Business Councils 
in Abu Dhabi and in Dubai ) serve as fora for business and 
investment dialogue, not politics.  The business councils 
played a limited role as information clearinghouses for Iraqi 
expatriates before the January 2005 elections.  (Note: 
Out-of-country voter turnout for the January 2005 Iraq 
elections in the UAE was 12,300, about 92 percent of total 
registered voters.) 
 
4.  (C)  Among the few prominent Iraqi expatriates who have 
been politically active is Adnan Pachachi.  Pachachi is 
widely respected in UAE political circles and among Iraqi 
expatriates, but he is not regarded as being sufficiently 
influential in today's Iraq, and is often dismissed as being 
part of a generation that no longer has a voice in Iraq,s 
affairs.  Given the UAE's preference for Allawi, we doubt the 
leadership here would invest their political capital in 
tripartite meetings with Pachachi and senior USG officials. 
 
5.  (C)  Another prominent UAE resident Iraqi is Sunni cleric 
Ahmed Al Kubaysi, who has strongly opposed U.S. treatment of 
Iraqi Sunnis.  Kubaysi has a popular religious show on Dubai 
TV and the support of Dubai Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin 
Rashid Al Maktoum, who views him as a force for moderation. 
The Emiratis had originally promoted him to the USG in 2003, 
hopeful that he could help curb Iranian influence and serve 
as a moderating and unifying force for Iraqi Sunnis.  The 
U.S. military transported him to Iraq shortly after the end 
of the Iraq war.  However, in April 2003, he delivered an 
inflammatory sermon at the Abu Hanifa Mosque in Baghdad in 
which he insisted that "for Muslims, resistance is 
legitimate."  Al Kubaysi departed Iraq soon thereafter.  The 
UAEG has largely prevented him from voicing his political 
views in public since then.  (Note:  When asked by OCV 
organizers just before the elections about the Sunni boycott, 
Al Kubaysi said that while he opposed the process, he would 
not discourage people from participating in the vote.) 
 
6.  (C)  The UAE also is home to a much smaller number of 
post-war transplants, many of whom were members of the Saddam 
regime.  Most prominent among the ex-regime transplants are 
Saddam's last UN Ambassador, Mohammed Al Douri, and last 
Information Minister, Mohammed Al Sahaf, both of whom are 
Sunnis.  Al Douri lives in Dubai and Al Sahaf lives in Abu 
Dhabi. 
 
7.  (U)  We will continue to engage with our Iraqi expat 
community contacts in an effort to identify any regular Iraqi 
visitors to the UAE who might stop in Dubai for business but 
who might also engage in political activity with the local 
community. 
SISON