US embassy cable - 05DARESSALAAM1090

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DAR ES SALAAM 001090 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E AND INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: 6/02/15 
TAGS: PGOV, TZ 
SUBJECT:  Tanzanian Elections Preparations: Quiet Only 
on the Surface 
 
Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason 
1.4(b) 
 
REF: A) Dar es Salaam 1001  B)Dar es Salaam 972, 
C) Dar es Salaam 908, D) Dar es Salaam 801 
 
1. (C) Summary: Tanzania's preparations for elections 
have entered an apparent lull, now that voter 
registration has ended on both Zanzibar and the 
mainland, the official campaign is yet to begin, and 
all party candidates have been nominated.  Electoral 
outcomes on the mainland, where the CCM dominates, are 
a foregone conclusion.  The elections scene is like 
the proverbial duck:  appearing to float tranquilly on 
the surface of the pond, while paddling frantically 
underwater.  The National Electoral Commission (NEC) 
and the Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) are now 
"scrubbing" their respective voters registers for 
errors, oversights and duplicate registrations.  This 
process presents ample opportunities for tension and 
electoral manipulation, especially on Zanzibar, where 
the elections will be hotly contested.  Meanwhile, 
opposition parties fret about unequal access to the 
media and the difficulty of obtaining permits to hold 
demonstrations on the scale employed by the ruling 
CCM.  As electoral conflicts continue to roil below 
the surface on Zanzibar, the Diplomatic Group is 
determined to keep pressing for a democratic 
transition in the isles.  End Summary. 
 
------------------- 
Entering Quiet Time 
------------------- 
 
2. (U) Mid-May marked the beginning of an unofficial 
"quiet time" in the run-up to the October elections. 
All suspense over the outcome of the national 
elections ended on May 4, when the ruling CCM party 
nominated its candidates.  It's difficult to imagine a 
scenario that doesn't result in the election, by 
overwhelming majorities, of Foreign Minister Jakaye 
Kikwete and Vice President Shein as President and Vice 
President, or in an equally overwhelming majority for 
the CCM in the National Assembly.  The NEC and the ZEC 
have now completed voter registration, on the mainland 
and on semi-autonomous Zanzibar, respectively.  The 
establishment of Tanzania's first-ever Permanent 
Voters Registries (PVR) is well underway.  In the 
current phase, the sister electoral commissions are 
now scrutinizing their respective PVRs, to eliminate 
dual registrations, and adjudicate cases in which 
registration was allegedly wrongly granted, or wrongly 
denied.  The official campaign does not begin until 
August 20.  Tanzania's annual official "quiet time," 
when the entire government decamps to the capital 
Dodoma for Parliament's budget session, begin in early 
June.  The public might be forgiven for thinking the 
electoral campaign has entered a lull. 
 
------------------------ 
Scrubbing Zanzibar's PVR 
------------------------ 
 
3. (U) Nothing is ever as tranquil as it seems, 
especially on Zanzibar, where the electoral contest 
between the ruling CCM party and the opposition CUF is 
close and hotly contested.  The outcome of elections 
on Zanzibar may ultimately hinge on the integrity of 
the ZEC's ongoing effort to "scrub" the PVR.  The 
ZEC's technicians are now scanning the computer 
database for potential dual registrations.  As voter 
registration was completed in each of Zanzibar's five 
regions, the ZEC was obliged to post the preliminary 
lists of registered voters, to allow members of the 
public to raise objections to any specific name that 
does or does not appear on the lists.  The ZEC can 
adjudicate many of these objections itself, but they 
may be appealed up to the High Court.  The challenge 
for the ZEC (and to a lesser extent the NEC) is to 
adjudicate all objections, remove any dual 
registrations, and ensure that the PVR is clean and 
credible by the time voters go to the polls in 
October. 
 
4. (C) The ZEC has its work cut out.  Observers from 
the election observation NGO "TEMCO," diplomats, and 
others saw ample evidence of registration practices 
that bordered on the edge of legality, or crossed it. 
ZEC Commissioners expect to find double registrations, 
especially in those Unguja Island constituencies where 
registration rates reached 120 percent or more of the 
expected tally.  In some areas, numerous ineligible 
minors may have registered.  Zanzibar's CCM government 
appears guilty of the borderline legal practice of 
recruiting pro-CCM youth into the local militias and 
security forces, then transferring them into marginal 
constituencies to register.  The law is ambiguous on 
this point, saying only that government employees may 
register in district "where they are living," without 
meeting Zanzibar's stringent residency requirements. 
ZEC Elections Director Khamis Ame hinted that the ZEC 
might disallow registrations of militia members in 
those constituencies that have no camps or military 
bases.  The ZEC seems less likely to devise an 
appropriate response to those Zanzibaris, mostly CUF 
supporters originating on Pemba Island, who were 
arbitrarily denied both registration and the 
opportunity to launch an appeal. (Please see reftel 
D.) 
 
5. (C) The ZEC is considering the purchase of 
additional software that could compare images in the 
PVR database such as fingerprints and photographs.  An 
internal spat within the ZEC over the terms of the 
contract was quickly publicized and politicized. 
Waymark, the company that had supplied equipment and 
technical support to the PVR, had completed a 
feasibility study for the software, which revealed 
that, of a sample drawn from the Zanzibar PVR, 6.7 
percent of the fingerprints were duplicates.  Soon 
thereafter, the ZEC IT director Salum challenged 
Elections Director Khamis Ame, saying that Waymark had 
no contract with Waymark for these additional 
services.  The dispute hit the press, and that 
Waymark's technical consultants were abruptly sent 
packing.  The British DCM, who is deeply involved in 
this project, believes that Salum sought to cherry- 
pick the data Waymark could use for cross checking, so 
that the new software was not applied to those areas 
with most suspected double registrations.  The 
opposition CUF was also quick to suspect a conspiracy: 
CUF's International Affairs Director Jussa Ladhu said 
that Zanzibar government officials were afraid the new 
software would uncover CCM machinations to manipulate 
the PVR, and so had pressured the ZEC to not to adopt 
of the software.  Contract negotiations between the 
ZEC and Waymark have now resumed. 
 
6. (C)  The opposition CUF party clearly believes that 
integrity of the PVR is crucial to the ultimate 
credibility of the elections.  The CUF party claims it 
has evidence that shehas in the Urban West Region 
turned away 9,000 people away from the registration 
centers, without allowing them to complete the 
paperwork necessary to launch an appeal.  CUF is 
compiling data on these cases, and plans to take them 
to court.  The ZEC Vice Chairman Augustin Ramadhani 
noted, however that it would be difficult make a case 
for registration, absent the all-important "form 2-d" 
documenting the original denial. The CUF is also 
monitoring the appeals process on Unguja Island, where 
the ZEC has yet to post the preliminary registration 
lists, according to Jussa.  When asked what measures 
the ZEC could take to reassure the CUF of integrity of 
the PVR, Jussa said that the ZEC should immediately 
post the lists for Unguja Island, and also purchase 
the additional image recognition software from 
Waymark. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Searching for a Level Playing Field 
----------------------------------- 
 
7. (U) Public attention nationwide has now turned to 
the debate over the campaign playing field, which is 
decidedly not level.  While the media on the mainland 
is lively and varied, some newspapers and broadcast 
media are controlled or influenced by the government 
or the CCM party.  On Zanzibar, the few newspapers are 
also mouthpieces for the CCM.  In Tanzanian campaigns, 
personal contact between candidate and the people is 
crucial, and massive rallies are an essential part of 
any campaign.  The official campaign does not begin 
until August 20, when all party nominees are 
officially announced.  Perhaps for this reason, 
opposition has found it difficult to obtain permits to 
hold rallies.  CUF's Jussa told poloff May 16 that the 
CUF had been refused all requests to hold rallies on 
Zanzibar during the previous month. 
 
8. (U) The ruling CCM party, in the meantime, has been 
using considerable government and party resources to 
"introduce" Presidential candidate Kikwete to the 
people.  Since his May 4 nomination, Jakaye Kikwete 
has starred at massive rallies in Dodoma, in Dar es 
Salaam and in Zanzibar's state-owned Amani stadium, 
all of them lavishly covered in the press.  Opposition 
parties protested this state of affairs, especially 
after CUF's request to use Amani was turned down. 
Even some government officials have questioned the 
imbalance.  The Registrar of Political Parties, John 
Tendwa, publicly called on the CCM to halt its 
"premature campaigning."  Minister of Home Affairs 
Omar Mapuri, acting in his capacity as CCM Publicity 
Secretary, just as publicly responded that as 
 
SIPDIS 
Registrar, Tendwa controlled the registration and 
subsequent conduct of the political parties, but he 
had no authority over the conduct of election 
campaigns.  Barely two weeks after this exchange, 
press accounts reported that Kikwete greeted 
"thousands" of well wishers in Mwanza and raised about 
250,000 USDOLS for the CCM at a May 28 fundraiser. 
 
------------------------------------- 
Keeping the Diplomatic Group Involved 
------------------------------------- 
 
9. (C) The US Mission continues to work with the 
Diplomatic Group, representing mostly western donor 
countries that have been providing electoral 
assistance to Zanzibar.  Throughout the current lull 
in elections preparations, the diplomatic group will 
continue to press for a credible and peaceful 
democratic transition on Zanzibar, the major testing 
ground for Tanzanian democracy.  The Heads of 
Diplomatic Mission last met on May 18, where they 
agreed on an updated version of the common message 
which they will transmit in their meetings with 
Tanzania's government and party leaders.  The updated, 
six-point message follows: 
 
-- We speak as friends of Tanzania, and of Zanzibar. 
We are impartial, and back neither the CCM nor the CUF 
in the coming elections. 
 
-- A peaceful and credible election is fundamental to 
Zanzibar's economic and developmental success. 
 
-- A transparent and comprehensive PVR is essential to 
a credible election. 
 
-- A violent or disputed election will have adverse 
consequences for trade, investment and tourism on 
Zanzibar and on the mainland. 
 
-- It is therefore vital for all parties to speak and 
act with restraint at this sensitive time. 
 
-- Ask if the CCM and the CUF are exploring 
sustainable power sharing, as suggested in the Muafaka 
process. 
 
10. (C) Comment:  It will take continued effort from 
the Diplomatic Group to identify and support those 
individuals and institutions that are still determined 
to conduct credible elections.  President Mkapa's 
recent stance suggests that he is now more interested 
in promoting the CCM than in ensuring a democratic 
transition on troubled Zanzibar.  The recent dispute 
in the ZEC may indicate that at least some individuals 
in the Commission have lost interest in adopting 
rigorous measures to guarantee the PVR's credibility. 
Omar Mapuri's dispute with Party Registrar Tendwa is 
also discouraging.  Mapuri is a Zanzibari who wears 
many hats, including that of the ranking CCM 
representative who helped negotiate and implement 
Zanzibar's bipartisan Muafaka Accord.  In his capacity 
as Minister of Home Affairs, Mapuri advocated an even- 
handed approach to maintaining law and order during 
early conflicts over voter registration.  Diplomats in 
Dar have long considered Mapuri to be potentially one 
of their strongest allies in the CCM in support of a 
credible, democratic transition on Zanzibar.  They 
now may have to look elsewhere.  Et tu, Omar?  End 
comment. 
 
OWEN