US embassy cable - 05PRAGUE842

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 000842 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECIN, EZ, EUN 
SUBJECT: EU REFERENDUM DEFEATS INTENSIFY CZECH DOMESTIC 
SQUABBLING 
 
Classified By: Pol-Econ Counselor Mike Dodman for reasons 1.4 b+d 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Not surprisingly in a country where the 
government has declared passage of the EU constitution the 
reason for its existence, and whose President has staked out 
a position as one of Europe's leading critics of the 
agreement, the French and Dutch "no" votes have only 
amplified domestic debate over the constitution.  Czech 
President Klaus is declaring the constitution dead and 
trumpeting this at home and abroad as a "victory for 
democracy and freedom."  PM Paroubek, who has tried without 
success to force Klaus to adhere to the GOCR's 
pro-constitution policy when abroad, insists that the CR must 
continue to move forward with its information campaign and a 
future vote.  At next week's EU Summit the Czechs intend to 
propose that the deadline for approving the agreement be 
extended.  A decision to stop further progress on the 
constitution will be a serious blow for the Paroubek 
government.  End summary. 
 
2. (C) The Czech Republic today is the only EU member that 
has not decided on either the format or the timing of a vote 
on the EU constitution.  Foreign observers may think that it 
is the outspoken opposition of Czech President Vaclav Klaus 
that is the main obstacle to progress.  In fact, there is a 
genuine political split in the CR, with the governing parties 
in favor of the constitution, and the opposition Civic 
Democrats and Communists firmly opposed.  Despite opinion 
polls showing that a majority of Czechs (and even a majority 
of the Civic Democrats' supporters) favor the agreement, the 
combination of the long political crisis this spring and the 
constitutional requirement for a three-fifths majority vote 
in parliament (either to call for a referendum or -- 
according to most analysts -- to approve the EU constitution 
in parliament) have stymied Czech progress. 
 
3. (C) Nonetheless, the constitution has been a political 
football here, and was tied closely to the question of early 
elections as a possible resolution to the spring political 
stalemate.  In the end, the coalition parties decided to 
reconstitute their government and serve until next summer's 
elections.  The new government declared passage of the 
constitution its overriding priority, and this became the 
cause around which the three coalition parties -- battered by 
months of infighting -- could rally.  Prime Minister 
Paroubek's early reputation as an energetic and focused 
leader stems in part from his robust approach to launching a 
long-overdue information campaign. 
 
4. (C) Against this backdrop, it is perhaps no surprise that 
the government has practically ignored the French and Dutch 
"no" votes.  PM Paroubek declared that they would have no 
impact on Czech planning:  the information campaign would 
continue, and Czechs would continue with their ratification 
process (notwithstanding the fact that no ratification 
process has been agreed upon).  The government meeting on 
June 1 confirmed this position, but noted that modifications 
may be necessary after the EU Summit; the government also 
authorizing Paroubek to propose to the Summit that the 
ratification process continue beyond 2006 to permit time for 
repeat voting where necessary (Paroubek and his staff have 
taken to citing the annex provision of the constitution that 
EU leaders need to consult if up to one-fifth of Members have 
"problems" with ratification).  Petra Masinova, director of 
the government office charged with handling the information 
campaign, told us June 3 that planning is underway based on a 
strategy approved May 18.  The first stage will be 
distribution of several chapters of the constitution as a 
newspaper insert.  She added, however, that no distribution 
or other concrete steps are scheduled to take place before 
the EU Summit. 
 
5. (C) In addition to the predictable split between the 
government and opposition -- with the Civic Democrats 
proclaiming loudly that the EU constitution is dead and any 
information campaign or referendum would be a waste of money 
-- the "no" votes opened the first public rift within the 
coalition since the Paroubek government was formed a month 
ago.  Christian Democratic leader Kalousek, supported by FM 
Svoboda, publicly suggested that the government should 
suspend all work on the information campaign until after the 
EU Summit.  Kalousek went on to suggest a meeting of all 
mainstream political parties.  In what has proven to be 
Paroubek's style, he rejected the all-party meeting and 
called together coalition leaders to confront the issue in 
advance of the formal government meeting.  According to 
Paroubek aides, during this meeting Kalousek immediately 
backed away from his proposals -- leaving FM Svoboda alone to 
argue for a suspension (which some claim he pursued to show 
his displeasure at having the information campaign housed 
outside of the Foreign Ministry).  In the end, the party 
leaders accepted Paroubek's position, which was subsequently 
unanimously approved by the cabinet. 
 
6. (C) Comment:  As many commentators noted, the Kalousek 
proposal to suspend activity on the EU constitution until 
after EU leaders have discussed the impact of the "no" votes 
was probably the most sensible position.  However, Kalousek's 
choice of airing his suggestion in public before raising 
within the coalition was an all-too-vivid reminder of the 
public maneuvering that marked the spring coalition crisis; 
so, too, his suggestion to meet with Civic Democrats, seen as 
a sign of Kalousek currying favor with a possible future 
coalition partner.  Paroubek won the round by clearly 
bringing Kalousek back into line, but the precedent is 
troubling.  Likewise the argument with President Klaus in 
recent week over his frequent public statements during 
foreign trips against the EU constitution, i.e., contrary to 
GOCR policy.  Klaus and Paroubek successfully resolved an 
escalating dispute that saw the government threaten to cut 
off funding for the President's travels.  However, the 
agreement to consult in advance of Klaus's travels appears to 
have had little impact, judging from the President's critical 
comments on the constitution during a June 2-3 visit to 
Helsinki.  Emboldened by the "no" votes, Klaus clearly 
believes he has the upper hand in this argument. 
 
7. (C) Comment continued:  The Czech debate between now and 
the June 15-16 EU Summit will likely continue to focus almost 
entirely on domestic issues.  Other than a few commentators 
and the President, few here are yet actively discussing what 
impact the "no" votes have for the future of Europe, the EU, 
and transatlantic relations.  For the Paroubek government, 
the EU constitution is a lifeline.  A decision at the EU 
Summit to halt further progress on the constitution, besides 
marking a huge victory for Klaus and the opposition, will be 
a serious blow to the government and will likely prompt more 
of the public divisions that were seen briefly this week. 
HILLAS