US embassy cable - 02ROME3680

UNCLAS ROME 003680 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/WE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, IT, ITALIAN POLITICS 
SUBJECT: PM BERLUSCONI WILL ALSO REMAIN FM BERLUSCONI "FOR 
A FEW MORE MONTHS" 
 
REF: A) ROME 03651 B) ROME 3600 
 
1.  (SBU)  DESPITE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE MUSINGS FROM VARIOUS 
SOURCES IN THE GOI (REPORTED REFTELS), PM BERLUSCONI WILL NOT 
RELINQUISH HIS POST AS INTERIM FOREIGN MINISTER ANY TIME 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        ROME  03680  251544Z 
SOON.  REFTELS REPORTED THAT THE PM WAS LIKELY TO ANNOUNCE 
SOON THE APPOINTMENT OF CURRENT MINISTER FOR PUBLIC 
ADMINISTRATION AND SECURITY FRANCO FRATTINI AS FOREIGN 
MINISTER. 
 
2.  (U)  DURING HIS ADDRESS TO A CONFERENCE FOR ITALIAN 
AMBASSADORS IN ROME ON JULY 24, HOWEVER, BERLUSCONI SAID THAT 
HE WOULD KEEP THE MFA INTERIM POST "FOR A FEW MORE MONTHS, OR 
MAYBE EVEN LONGER."  HE EXPLAINED THAT HE IS THE HEAD OF A 
COALITION GOVERNMENT, AND THAT "WITHIN THIS COALITION, THE 
CONDITIONS TO APPOINT A NEW FOREIGN MINISTER HAVE NOT YET 
RIPENED."  BERLUSCONI ASSURED THE AMBASSADORS THAT HE WOULD 
TRY TO BE "MORE PRESENT, MORE UP TO THE TASK, TO MEET YOUR 
EXPECTATIONS."  HE ALSO ADMITTED THAT WHEN THE TIME FINALLY 
COMES TO GIVE UP THE MFA, HE WILL MISS THE JOB. 
 
3.  (SBU)  COMMENT.  IN CITING THE COALITION GOVERNMENT AS 
THE REASON FOR DELAYING HIS DECISION ON A NEW FM, BERLUSCONI 
PROBABLY HAD IN MIND THE FACT THAT GIVING FRATTINI THE MFA 
WOULD MEAN THAT THE MOST IMPORTANT GOVERNMENT MINISTRIES 
(FOREIGN AFFAIRS, DEFENSE, ECONOMY, AND INTERIOR) WOULD BE 
RUN BY FORZA ITALIA (FI - BERLUSCONI'S PARTY) MEMBERS.  WE 
UNDERSTAND THAT THE CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS IN THE COALITION, IN 
PARTICULAR, ARE PUSHING FOR MORE POSITIONS.  THIS DOES NOT 
BODE WELL FOR FRATTINI'S CHANCES.  THE RELATIVE STRENGTHS OF 
THE PARTIES COMPRISING THE COALITION WILL NOT CHANGE OVER THE 
NEXT FEW MONTHS.  BARRING A MAJOR SHUFFLE IN THE CABINET 
(SOMETHING BERLUSCONI HAS SAID HE IS RELUCTANT TO DO), IT MAY 
BE THAT BERLUSCONI IS STALLING FOR TIME TO CAST HIS NET WIDER 
IN THE SEARCH FOR A CAPABLE AND, FROM PARLIAMENT'S 
STANDPOINT, ACCEPTABLE FM. 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        ROME  03680  251544Z 
 
4.  (SBU)  COMMENT CONTINUED.  DESPITE BERLUSCONI'S PROMISE 
TO BE MORE VISIBLE AT THE MFA, IT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY 
DIFFICULT FOR HIM TO HANDLE BOTH THE PM AND FM JOBS 
EFFECTIVELY.  "A FEW MORE MONTHS" MEANS HE WILL RETAIN THE FM 
POSITION AT LEAST UNTIL JUST BEFORE, OR THROUGH, THE NATO 
SUMMIT IN PRAGUE.  GIVEN THE DETAILS TO BE HAMMERED OUT ON 
ENLARGEMENT IN THE RUN-UP TO PRAGUE, THE LACK OF A FULL TIME 
FM COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE GOI.  IN ADDITION, THE MFA 
HAS STARTED PREPARATIONS FOR ITALY'S EU PRESIDENCY IN JULY 
2003.  BERLUSCONI MAY FIND THAT THE BURDEN OF TWO CABINET 
POSITIONS WILL FORCE HIM TO EXPEDITE HIS CHOICE FOR FM. 
RESPECTED MEDIA ANALYSTS ARE INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING JUST 
THIS. 
SEMBLER 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
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 2002ROME03680 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED