US embassy cable - 05ABUJA972

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000972 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, SOCI, NI 
SUBJECT: MIXED REACTIONS AS NIGERIA MARKS DEMOCRACY DAY 
 
REF: ABUJA 878 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  NOT FOR POSTING ON THE INTRANET 
OR INTERNET. 
 
1.    Begin Summary: On May 29, 2005, Nigeria marked six 
years since President Obasanjo's return to power. Reactions 
to the celebration of Obasanjo's inaugurations were mixed. 
While some Nigerians say it is six years of democratic rule, 
others argue it is merely a return to civil rule devoid of 
the ingredients of democracy. In Kogi and Ekiti states 
violence marred the day's celebrations (SEPTEL). In Lagos, 
the state government led a mass rally against continued 
seizure of Local Council funds by the Federal government in 
spite of a Supreme Court judgment. Most newspaper editorials 
and commentaries scored the administration low on economy, 
health, security, education and anti-corruption crusade. For 
ordinary Nigerians, the measure of good governance is the 
ability of the government to put food on their tables. But 
there is one agreement among all shades of opinions: It is 
not yet celebration time. End summary. 
 
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PERFORMING THE RITUAL 
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2.    On May 29, Nigerians marked six years of return to 
civil rule without the usual flying of banners and buntings. 
President Obasanjo in his traditional radio and television 
broadcast made no far reaching policy announcement. But in a 
public lecture organized by the leadership of the Central 
Bank of Nigeria, the president promised to reform the "highly 
monetized" political system. "We have to move from politics 
of patronage and politics of money", he said. Attempting to 
assure that his presidency is not out to "deceive Nigerians", 
Obasanjo characteristically warned that he would not "succumb 
to flattery, harassment, blackmail, intimidation and threat." 
Attendance at the public lecture was by invitation only. 
 
3.    In Nasarawa, the state government announced a 
cancellation of all planned programs for the day citing 
"security reasons". It further banned all unauthorized public 
gatherings and processions "until further notice." In Kogi 
state, Governor Ibrahim Idris was prevented from giving a 
prepared speech by hoodlums who fired sporadically into the 
crowd. A similar incident was recorded in Ekiti state, where 
celebrations came to an abrupt conclusion as a result of 
apparently well-organized violent demonstrations. 
 
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"THIS IS NOT A DEMOCRACY" 
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4.  Die-hard critics of the Obasanjo administration such as 
Lagos lawyer, Gani Fawehinmi, dismiss the six years of 
Obasanjo as a charade. Fawehinmi is currently suing the 
President for using his official position to launch a private 
project - the controversial Presidential Library in the 
President's home town of Otta - and win donations from state 
governments and oil companies to fund it. Chief Fawehinmi 
noted that during the six years of President Obasanjo's 
administration, corruption has been on the increase and "is 
much worse" than under General Sani Abacha. 
 
5.  Second republic Minister and representative at the 
Political Reform Conference, Alhaji Umaru Dikko, decried the 
various economic policies of the last six years, saying they 
lack the backing of Nigerians. An umbrella organization of 
opposition political parties, known as the Conference of 
Nigerian Political Parties (CNPP) in a three-page statement 
was less charitable, describing Obasanjo's tenure as "six 
years of regime failure." 
 
6.  Prominent northern politician, Alhaji Shettima Ali 
Monguno, said much is lacking in the current democratic 
dispensation. Monguno, a first republic Petroleum Minister 
described Obasanjo's record as "a democracy of the elite, by 
the elite, for the elite which makes the gap between the rich 
and the poor wider." Second Republic governor of Borno State, 
Alhaji Mohammed Goni, known for his frankness, described the 
six years as a "disaster."  Former presidential aspirant and 
member of the ruling party Abubakar Rimi says the fight 
against corruption in the last six years has been "selective" 
at best. 
 
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"WE ARE DOING WELL, BUT..." 
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7. Ms. Ayo Obe, former president, Civil Liberties 
Organization, (CLO), says that Nigeria is not a "complete 
democracy," but rather had experienced a "return to civilian 
rule." In reference to the foundations of Nigeria's Fourth 
Republic, Ms. Obe says you cannot expect to "get genuine 
elections arranged by a panic-stricken military 
dictatorship." She did, however, give a pass to the 
government for at least "recognizing some fundamental 
freedoms associated with democracy." Ms. Obe, a member of the 
International Crisis Group, stated her worry about Nigeria's 
international reputation. 
 
7.  Human Rights lawyer Femi Falana is of the opinion that 
the six years of the Obasanjo administration is a bittersweet 
story. While condemning corrupt practices pervading the 
polity, executive disobedience of court injunctions, falling 
standards of living, and the West's takeover of the economy, 
Chief Falana admits that there is no absolute freedom in any 
democracy.  What worried Falana most are the protracted court 
cases on election matters. Two years into his second term, he 
commented, the court is yet to rule on election petitions 
against the president. 
 
8.  Dr. Magnus Kpakol, head of GON,s poverty alleviation 
program (NAPEP) and former economic reform insider, said the 
war against poverty is being won. While Kpakol,s keeps a 
symbolic pair of boxing gloves in his office to signify the 
fight against poverty, many Nigerians believe the program is 
nothing more than the symbol. Charles Soludo, governor of the 
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), said the nations, economic 
reform agenda and its National Economic Empowerment and 
Development Strategy (NEEDS) program form part of the tripod 
for sustaining Nigeria's democracy. 
 
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INDICES FOR JUDGMENT 
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8.  Most Nigerians who commented on the present 
administration's performance in the last six years criticized 
the continued rise in unemployment, increasing poverty, poor 
health facilities in the country, crisis in the educational 
sector, insecurity, corrupt practices among public officers, 
and poor performance of public utilities. According to Obe, 
for the ordinary Nigerian the economy is reflected in the 
following questions: a) Am I personally financially better 
off? b) Have I got a job? c) Am I earning enough to pay my 
bills? and d) Do my children have jobs? Femi Falana however, 
argues that not all democratic dividends are measurable. "One 
thing we must all acknowledge in terms of the gains we have 
recorded is the expansion of the democratic space," he said. 
 
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MEDIA REACTIONS 
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9.    Some respondents to a Voice of America (VOA) survey on 
the gains recorded in Nigeria in the last six years mockingly 
refer to soaring inflation, the demolition exercise in parts 
of Abuja, (Reftel), and the ineffective power supply as 
"dividends of democracy." The Vanguard, a Lagos-based 
independent newspaper, carried a front page cartoon on the 
day of the anniversary, that scored the Obasanjo 
administration high only in the introduction of GSM phones 
and his continued frequent foreign trips, the subject of 
widespread condemnation by Nigerians.  The paper scored the 
administration low in education, health, agriculture, sports 
and security. A tabloid owned by a member of the ruling 
party, Sunday Sun, in an editorial described the May 29 
celebration as "a symbolic hollow ritual" and decried "lack 
of sincerity which pervades government's business". The 
editorial concludes, "We cannot as a people say that the six 
years of civil rule has brought smiles to the people." 
 
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COMMENT 
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10.  While Nigerians continue to argue about the achievements 
(or lack thereof) of civilian administration since 1999, what 
worries most Nigerians is the prospect for the 2007 
elections. The struggle for who contests the presidency is 
taking a tribal turn. The South-South geopolitical zone 
contends that it deserves to produce the next president (and 
to control the resources accruing from its oil rich land). 
The North insists that the only divide that matters in 
Nigeria's politics - North and South - and says Obasanjo has 
fulfilled the South's quota for eight years. End comment. 
CAMPBELL