US embassy cable - 05THEHAGUE1556

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 001556 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PBTS, PINS, MARR, SNAR, NL, NA, VE 
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/VENEZUELA/ANTILLES: POTENTIAL "DUTCH 
FALKLANDS"? 
 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR CLIFFORD SOBEL, REASONS 1.5(B) AND (D) 
 
1.(C) SUMMARY:  The Dutch are increasingly worried that 
Venezuelan President Chavez is actively seeking to reduce or 
eliminate Dutch influence in the Antilles, including by force 
if necessary.  While some in the GONL argue that greater 
engagement with Chavez' government is necessary to "reduce 
misunderstandings," others, including FM Bot, openly state 
that a Dutch/U.S. military presence in the region is a 
necessary deterrent to Venezuelan territorial ambitions. 
Post believes the Dutch would appreciate and benefit from 
high-level consultations on this issue at an early 
opportunity.  See guidance request in para 6.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C) On June 1, Ambassador Sobel (accompanied by Embassy 
DEA representative and POLCOUNS) was invited to brief members 
of the Dutch MFA's Western Hemisphere Affairs department on 
his recent trip to the Netherlands Antilles.  Following a 
detailed discussion of successful Dutch-U.S.-Antilles 
cooperation in combating illegal narcotics trafficking, 
Marianne Kappeyne van de Coppello (Director of the Western 
Hemisphere Department) raised growing Dutch concerns about 
Venezuelan intentions vis-a-vis the Antilles.  Noting that 
Antilles Prime Minister Ys would be visiting the Netherlands 
June 6, she stressed that the Dutch worried that he was 
facing mounting pressure both from Venezuela directly and 
from members of his own government, including former deputy 
PM Cova, who favored a more pro-Venezuelan line.  She 
expressed concern that a pro-Venezuelan, anti-Dutch/U.S. 
government could emerge from the January elections. 
 
3. (C) Kappeyne van de Coppello said that Venezuelan 
influence over "certain groups" in the Antilles was being 
used to undermine Dutch-Antilles-U.S. cooperation in the 
fight against drugs.  She noted that the Dutch MFA had called 
in the Venezuelan Ambassador recently to protest recent 
remarks by Chavez reviving old Venezuelan territorial claims 
to the islands.  Although the Venezuelan constitution, she 
noted, still formally considers "the islands" (including 
Aruba, Curacaou and Bonaire) to be part of Venezuela, until 
recently the Dutch have had no reason to worry about 
Venezuela's intentions -- but that is now changing.  Given 
the Netherlands Antilles' dependence on Venezuelan oil, she 
added, Chavez has several means at his disposal for 
exercising leverage.. 
 
4. (C) As a first step, Kappeyne van de Coppello said the 
Dutch government planned to increase contacts with the 
Venezuelan government to reduce possible misunderstandings. 
Simultaneously, however, the Dutch would like to begin a 
dialogue with the U.S. on how to deal with the issue.  Karel 
de Vey Mestagh, Kingdom Affairs Advisor for the MFA, 
suggested that a lowering of the U.S. profile in the area -- 
i.e., fewer ship visits, etc. -- could help reduce tensions. 
He was immediately contradicted, however, by Lucita 
Moenir-Alam, the Dutch Consul General-designate for Miami 
(and native Antillean who formerly worked for the Netherlands 
Antilles government in Curacao), who argued that the U.S. 
profile provided an essential deterrent.  In response to a 
question from the Ambassador, Kappeyne van de Coppello 
stressed that the Dutch response to Venezuelan requests to 
reduce the degree of counternarcotics trafficking cooperation 
with the U.S. had been a "crystal clear" no. 
 
5, (C) Later the same day, the issue was raised again in a 
meeting between Ambassador Sobel and Foreign Minister Bot. 
Bot was emphatic that the Dutch took Chavez' sabre rattling 
seriously, and stressed that only the Dutch and U.S. presence 
in the region deterred Venezuela from taking the near islands 
by force:  "if we left tomorrow, the next day they would be 
part of Venezuela."  Even though "92 percent" of Antilleans 
wished to remain part of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, he 
said, a small group headed by former PM Cova wishes to sever 
this connection.  This could lead quickly to the realization 
of Venezuelan claims, he added, as Venezuela would never 
tolerate an independent Antilles.  Comparing Chavez to Simon 
Bolivar, Bot argued that he wishes to go down in history as a 
liberator and struggler against colonialism, and, 
unfortunately, Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire present the 
closest and juiciest opportunity for him to realize this 
vision.  Bot disdainfully called Spanish PM Zapatero "a fool" 
for thinking that Europe should seek a more productive 
relationship with Chavez under these circumstances. 
 
6. (C) COMMENT AND GUIDANCE REQUEST:  Justified or not, the 
Dutch are clearly worried that Venezuela is engaged in a 
serious campaign to reduce or eliminate Dutch influence in 
the Netherlands Antilles. If successful, such an outcome 
would have considerable negative implications for the U.S., 
particularly with regard to our ability to conduct 
counternarcotics and other missions in the region.  At the 
moment, the Dutch are divided on how to deal with Chavez, and 
would appreciate the opportunity to discuss this and other 
regional issues at an appropriate level.  Post believes the 
Dutch would be very receptive to an offer to engage in 
consultations on this issue in The Hague, Washington, or the 
Netherlands Antilles at an early opportunity.  Post would 
appreciate guidance from WHA and EUR on whether they would 
support such consultations at this time and, if so, 
recommendations on format, timing, and location.  END COMMENT 
AND GUIDANCE REQUEST. 
SOBEL