US embassy cable - 05MAPUTO692

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MAPUTO 000692 
 
SIPDIS 
AF/FO AND AF/S - HTREGER 
MCC FOR SGAULL 
NSC FOR CCOURVILLE 
USTR FOR PCOLEMAN 
USAID FOR DMENDELSON 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/03/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, KDEM, MZ, KCOR, Elections 04, HIV/AIDS/PEPFAR, Guebuza 
SUBJECT: MOZAMBIQUE: GUEBUZA'S 100-DAY VICTORY LAP 
 
REF: A. MAPUTO 0184 
B. MAPUTO 0150 
Classified By: Ambassador Helen La Lime for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
Summary 
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1. (SBU) President Guebuza has spent the first 100 days in 
office traveling the length of the country, bolstering 
support for himself and the ruling party, Frelimo. In public 
addresses he has held firm to the themes of his campaign 
promise to alleviate poverty, combat corruption and eliminate 
bureaucratic inefficiency. Back in Maputo some government 
ministries are functioning smoothly under new management, 
while others are still finding their way. In the midst of 
his domestic travels, Guebuza has found the time and energy 
for visits in the region and a short trip to Europe. He 
presents the image of one who is extremely busy, decisive and 
sure of himself. The contours of Guebuza's presidency are 
still forming, however. We ought to look for ways to offer 
guidance to the new government. End Summary. 
 
From the Rovuma River to Maputo 
------------------------------- 
2. (U) Guebuza's first 100 days in office have been to a 
large extent spent outside the capital, criss-crossing the 
country. He has paid special attention to rural populations 
in the center and north who have yet to enjoy the benefits of 
Mozambique's post-conflict development. On his visits he has 
stressed his government's overriding concern with economic 
development, particularly alleviating poverty. This goal is 
reflected in the newest five-year plan (designed under the 
Chissano administration), through which two-thirds of the 
GRM's USD 2 billion budget is slated for poverty reduction 
initiatives. His travels remind many of Samora Machel in the 
early years after independence, trying to encourage a sense 
of national pride and unity among the people. 
 
3. (U) Provincial governors have been instructed to travel 
outside their respective capitals so they better understand 
their constituents. Guebuza's tactic of bringing into his 
cabinet six former provincial governors has served to 
reinforce the message that he has his administration care 
about people in the provinces. All of his trips and 
activities, from the Rovuma river up north to Maputo in the 
far south, have received lavish press coverage, yet another 
throw back to the Machel era. 
 
Consolidating Power 
------------------- 
4. (U) During his visits Guebuza has sought to rebuild 
support for the ruling Frelimo party. Voters were apathetic 
in the 2004 elections -- turnout was surprisingly low, 
roughly 45 percent, well below the 74 percent in the 1999 
elections -- and Guebuza garnered just over 2 million votes 
compared to 2.4 million for Chissano in 1999. In stop after 
stop, he has made the party a central theme, stressing that 
Frelimo is intent on solving the problems of the people. 
 
5. (SBU) More challenging for Guebuza have been the 
behind-the-scenes efforts to strengthen his hold within the 
heart of the party. On March 4, former president Joaquim 
Chissano reluctantly surrendered his position as Frelimo 
party president to Guebuza. According to some observers, 
Chissano stepped down only after several long and heated 
discussions within Frelimo's inner circle. Retainig his post 
as Frelimo Secretary General, Guebuza would appear now to 
have full control over the party, but we continue to hear of 
divisions within Frelimo between Guebuza and Chissano camps. 
 
Guebuza Beats the Corruption Drum 
--------------------------------- 
6. (U) Guebuza has continued where he left off on the 
campaign trail, pledging that his administration is serious 
in its fight against corruption, bureaucratic inefficiency, 
and red tape. From secondary school openings to the May Day 
rally, this promise is a centerpiece of every public address 
Guebuza has made since his February 2 inauguration. Some in 
his cabinet have already taken the message to heart. The 
Minister of Education has shown up unannounced in remote 
corners of his ministry to see who were at their desks, the 
Minister of Health has conducted numerous surprise 
inspections of hospitals and spoken openly about poor 
conditions in the sector, and the Minister of Agriculture has 
tightened up regulations on the use of official vehicles. 
 
7. (SBU) Guebuza's message to date has focused mainly on 
inefficiency and petty corruption at low and mid-level rungs 
of the bureaucracy. This has alienated some mid-level 
bureaucrats, who have long benefited from the spoils their 
state positions provide, but the message appears to be quite 
popular overall. Most recently even several former ministers 
have become targets of corruption investigations (septel). 
 
Some Anxious, Others Forging Ahead 
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8. (C) In contrast to his whirlwind spin through the 
provinces, activity in the capital has been more mixed. In 
the Ministry of Agriculture, which will play a key role in 
the Guebuza plans for rural development, the new directives 
on vehicle and cell phone usage have caused noticeable 
grumbling and dismay. USAID contacts report confusion and 
low morale there. The Health Minister's combative style (he 
is famous for criticizing poor performers in front of others) 
has bred considerable resentment. The rearranging of half a 
dozen ministries after Guebuza took over has not helped 
matters. The IMF representative told us several weeks ago 
that he is certain the national budget director has no idea 
to which ministry he belongs, Finance or Planning. 
 
9. (C) In contrast, though, some other ministries are showing 
real promise. The Minister of Industry and Commerce has 
jumped at the opportunity to move ahead toward a Trade 
Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) with the U.S. We are 
hopeful a TIFA can be signed in Washington in mid-June, quite 
quickly since the U.S.-Mozambique Bilateral Investment Treaty 
only came into force in March. The Energy Minister has 
impressed attendees at the Ninth African Conference on Oil 
and Gas, currently underway in Maputo with his knowledge and 
experience. In the Foreign Ministry, the new director of the 
Americas and European Directorate, former Ambassador to the 
UN Carlos Dos Santos, has been readily accessible to the 
Ambassador on a number of issues in the past weeks and has 
helped overcome bottlenecks in other ministries. Minister of 
Defense Dai, currently visiting China, has been active in 
advancing key USG initiatives within the military, including 
ACOTA and the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief. 
Vision? 
 
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10. (C) According to the IMF representative, senior officials 
can repeat Guebuza's campaign speeches about fighting poverty 
and eliminating corruption, but when pressed for details have 
very little to offer. In his view, the Guebuza 
administration has no clear vision of the way forward. 
(Comment: It may be a sign that Guebuza, for the time being, 
is focused on strengthening his grip on power instead of 
using it, demanding discipline over initiative. It may be 
because many of his senior advisors and ministers have been 
chosen for their loyalty, not for their technical expertise 
(ref A). The Foreign Minister, for instance, has a 
background in the Frelimo party and social work but none in 
diplomacy. End Comment.) The IMF rep hastens to add, 
though, that technically competent deputies remain in all the 
ministries. 
 
Guebuza on the International Scene 
---------------------------------- 
11. (SBU) Contrary to fears that Guebuza would break from 
Chissano-era policy and shun the international community to 
promote Mozambicanization of the economy (ref B), Guebuza has 
continued along Chissano's path. In an effort to strengthen 
relations with Mozambique's neighbors and further encourage 
foreign investment, since his February inauguration Guebuza 
has traveled extensively in the region, including visits to 
Angola, Zimbabwe, Malawi among others. Guebuza's May visit 
to South Africa yielded a long-awaited visa waiver program 
that has already increased trans-border commerce, while 
similar visa waivers were explored in talks in Swaziland and 
Botswana. Guebuza's international overtures extend beyond 
the region. Guebuza attended the Pope's funeral in April, 
followed by a quick trip to Brussels. In May, he sent his 
Foreign Minister to Havana to reinforce Mozambique's ties 
with Cuba. He is clearly looking forward to his upcoming 
meeting with the President and his follow-on participation at 
the Corporate Council on Africa Business Summit in Baltimore 
later this month. 
 
Quiet on the HIV/AIDS Front 
--------------------------- 
12. (SBU) Apart from a few public statements, Guebuza has 
said little about HIV/AIDS. He has placed capable 
individuals at the helm of key government institutions, such 
as the Ministry of Health and the National AIDS Council. 
However, with a prevalence rate edging above 15 percent, the 
disease is looming ever greater as a scourge for the people 
and the economy, and his relative silence is surprising. 
Even with large amounts of resources flowing into the country 
for prevention and treatment, Guebuza will have to play much 
more of a leadership role if his country is to make 
meaningful gains battling the disease. 
 
Comment 
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13. (C) It is still too early to tell where Guebuza's regime 
is headed. The emphasis so far has been on shoring up 
support from the populace below and ensuring loyalty at the 
top. He is known to be decisive, even impulsive, yet this 
does not mean that Guebuza does not listen. Everyone, it 
seems, who meets with him is struck by his intelligence. The 
months ahead will be a testing time for the new Guebuza 
administration, as the honeymoon phase of his term wanes. We 
need to watch some of the laggards, especially the weak 
judicial and the agricultural sectors, to see whether and how 
Guebuza will push reform. As the situation warrants, we 
ought to look for ways to offer guidance and encouragement. 
La Lime