US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI2421

C O N F I D E N T I A L TAIPEI 002421 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, TW 
SUBJECT: DPP CHAIRMAN LOOKS TO HIS OWN FUTURE 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairman Su 
Tseng-chang plans to start distancing himself from President 
 
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Chen Shui-bian, according to a senior aide.  DPP Deputy 
Secretary General Yen Wan-ching said that Su, who plans to 
 
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depart for first visit to the U.S. as party chair in early 
July, has become exasperated by Chen Shui-bian's 
unpredictable leadership style and Su increasingly sees Chen 
as a liability to Su's own 2008 prospects.  Yen said Su saw 
Chen's appointment of DPP rival Frank Hsieh as Premier in 
February and more recent public criticism over Su's handling 
of the DPP's National Assembly (NA) campaign as a personal 
betrayal.  In addition, Yen said that Chen's erratic behavior 
over the past several weeks has damaged the DPP's image among 
the general public.  Although Su frequently criticized Chen 
in private while serving as Taipei County Magistrate, Su has 
hewed closely to the Chen line in public and private since 
May 20, 2004, when he assumed the post of Presidential Office 
Secretary General. 
 
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2. (C) Yen said that Su had already prepared a resignation 
speech to deliver on May 14 had the DPP lost the NA election. 
 Yen asserted that Su had mixed feelings over the DPP's 
strong performance, since he had looked forward to the 
opportunity to quit and escape from Chen's shadow.  While Su 
plans to remain in his current post, Yen said he will no 
longer automatically tow the President's line.  "He will show 
respect to the President," Yen remarked, "but will not 
necessarily express agreement with the President's policies." 
 
3. (C) Yen predicted that Premier Hsieh will also seek to put 
space between himself and Chen with an eye towards 2008, but 
noted that Hsieh's room for maneuver was limited by his 
position and need to reach out to the Pan-Blue opposition. 
Yen said that Hsieh's attempts to seek reconciliation with 
the increasingly hostile Pan-Blue Legislative Yuan (LY) 
parties could hurt him in the DPP's 2008 presidential 
primary.  While Hsieh's fate may be sealed if his cabinet 
remains unable to advance any policies in the face of 
opposition obstructionism, Yen said that Su's future is 
riding on the DPP's performance in the December 3 local 
election. 
 
4. (C) Yen told AIT that Su will travel to Washington after 
he delivers a July 3 speech in San Francisco.  Su recently 
asked TECRO Washington Representative David Lee to start 
arranging meetings for Su and his delegation with USG 
officials, along with members of Congress and the think tank 
community.  Yen said that Su may be willing to share his own 
policy vision (as opposed to simply reiterating familiar Chen 
policy lines) during his Washington meetings if the U.S. side 
would find it useful. 
 
Bionote 
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5. (C) Yen is Su's main cross-Strait and foreign policy 
advisor and a ranking member of the DPP's powerful New Tide 
faction.  A former Deputy SecGen of the Strait Exchange 
Foundation and Director of the DPP's China Affairs 
Department, Yen can be expected to play a central role in any 
possible future Su administration.  Yen said told AIT that he 
would like to travel to Washington separately later in the 
summer to meet with working level officials from the 
Departments of State and Defense, the National Security 
Council (NSC), and the Office of the Vice President. 
PAAL