US embassy cable - 05CAIRO4170

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 004170 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR NEA, NEA/ELA, AND NEA/PI 
NSC STAFF FOR POUNDS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, PREL, EG, Elections, Democracy, NDI, voting 
SUBJECT: EGYPTIAN CIVIL SOCIETY MONITORING OF MAY 25 
REFERENDUM 
 
Classified by A/DCM Michael H. Corbin, for reasons 1.4 (b) 
and (d). 
 
1.  (C)  Summary:  Six Egyptian civil society organizations, 
led by the Ibn Khaldun Center (IKC) and with training and 
coordination support from the National Democratic Institute 
(NDI), completed a modest but significant monitoring effort 
of the May 25 referendum.  NDI's Senior Regional 
Representative Joe Hall told poloff that he was impressed 
with the capacity of Egyptian civil society to organize and 
coordinate to monitor the referendum, particularly given the 
short lead time that the groups had and the minimal support 
provided by NDI.  Post believes that the referendum 
monitoring report is solid evidence of the benefits of NDI 
collaboration with Egyptian civil society.  We also believe 
that the report is an indication of the potential for a much 
larger monitoring/observation effort for the upcoming 
presidential and parliamentary elections.  End summary. 
 
2.  (SBU)  The five-page report, which has been e-mailed to 
NEA/ELA and NEA/PI, is based on the work of 131 observers, 
affiliated with six civil society groups, who covered 236 
polling stations (out of a nationwide total of more than 
54,000 polling stations).  On May 23, two days prior to the 
referendum, NDI provided a train-the-trainers workshop for 
representatives from the interested groups.  Attendees in 
turn trained their own staffs prior to the referendum. 
 
3.  (SBU)  Among the key findings of the monitors were the 
following: 
 
--inconsistent maintenance of voting lists; 
 
--inconsistent staffing of polling stations; 
 
--absence of judicial supervision at many polling stations, 
notwithstanding GOE assertions of full judicial supervision; 
 
--lack of awareness by polling station staff of rules and 
procedures; 
 
--application of different rules at different polling 
stations; 
 
--access to the polls for unregistered voters on an ad hoc 
and inconsistent basis; 
 
--support for voting by unregistered voters who otherwise 
demonstrated NDP membership or evidence that they were GOE 
employees; 
 
--multiple voting by individuals "moving from one polling 
station to another in an organized manner;" 
 
--NDP members and local council officials present in numerous 
polling stations, "guiding voters and influencing their 
choices;" 
 
--denial by polling officials of access to most polling 
stations by monitors, making it impossible for the monitors 
to analyze voter turnout; 
 
--among the few observers who were able to remain in polling 
stations for the duration of the voting, they saw no evidence 
to corroborate the GOE's assertion that more than 17 million 
Egyptians voted; 
 
--GOE institutions and business leaders organizing citizens, 
including provision of transport and financial incentives, to 
vote affirmatively; 
 
--widespread belief among rural and poor urban voters that 
they were, in fact, voting yes to another term for President 
Mubarak. 
 
4.  (SBU)  The report concludes with recommendations, among 
them that 
 
--the GOE needs to amend electoral laws to guarantee free, 
transparent, and fair elections; 
 
--the electoral law should provide for an independent, 
autonomous electoral administrative body; 
 
--the right of independent electoral monitors to operate 
freely should be protected by law; 
 
--freedom of expression and association be guaranteed to all 
peaceful political forces; 
 
--various technical modifications (including the use of 
transparent ballot boxes; inkstains to prevent multiple 
voting; consistent application of voting rules, etc.) be 
institutionalized in future ballots; 
 
--and that the GOE accede to the Judges' Club demands that 
elections be held over multiple phases to allow Egypt's 8,000 
judges to supervise fully polling at the more than 54,000 
polling stations. 
 
5.  (C)  In a June 2 meeting with poloff, NDI's Hall praised 
the Egyptian civil society representatives for their 
effectiveness and team work.  Hall noted that NDI would be 
working in future with the two other major Egyptian 
consortiums of aspirant domestic monitors, who are led by 
MEPI-grantee Negad Borai's Group for Democratic Dialogue 
(GDD) and Hafez Abou Seada's Egyptian Organization for Human 
Rights (EOHR).  According to Hall, one challenge will be to 
convince the disparate personalities in the GDD and EOHR 
organizations to cooperate with the Ibn Khaldun group in the 
run-up to the presidential and parliamentary polls. 
Nevertheless, Hall enthusiastically described the modest 
results of the referendum monitoring exercise as an example 
of the "synergies" that can occur when committed domestic 
groups partner with the institutional expertise of 
organizations like NDI. 
 
6.  (C)  Hall also noted that the IKC's coordinator for the 
monitoring exercise, Ayat Aboul Fetouh, who runs IKC in the 
absence of IKC Chairman Saad Eddin Ibrahim (who has been in 
the United States since January), had recounted for him an 
intriguing conversation that she had had with the unnamed 
State Security officer who monitors IKC.  Ayat told Hall that 
the State Security officer praised the monitoring report 
since it stuck to the facts and did not senstationalize the 
episodes of violence that marred the referendum day and 
garnered negative attention from the international and 
opposition media. 
 
7.  (C)  Comment:  We believe the report--which has received 
little media attention so far--may play an important role in 
stimulating debate about the flaws in the May 25 referendum 
and the need for speedy remedies to ensure that these flaws 
are not repeated in the upcoming presidential and 
parliamentary elections.  Moreover, the NDI's transparent but 
low-profile support of this domestic monitor exercise bodes 
well for our future efforts to ensure that Egyptian civil 
society plays a significant role in supporting the political 
reform process.  NDI's work in support of the referendum 
monitoring was supported by NED funds.  Using MEPI resources, 
NDI will be working in the weeks ahead to strengthen the 
capacities of MEPI grantees in Egypt.  NDI has also submitted 
an application for USAID grant funding under USAID's Annual 
Program Statement (APS) to support a significant expansion of 
NDI activities in Egypt in support of democratic reform.  End 
comment. 
 
 
Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo 
 
You can also access this site through the 
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. 
 
GRAY 
 
#4170