US embassy cable - 05GABORONE749

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 GABORONE 000749 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/S MOZENA 
PLEASE PASS TO OPIC 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ECON, PHUM, KHIV, BC 
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR BOTSWANA PRESIDENT MOGAE'S JUNE 13 
POTUS MEETING 
 
REF: A. GABORONE 56 
     B. GABORONE 667 
     C. GABORONE 738 
     D. GABORONE 651 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOSEPH HUGGINS FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D 
 
1. (U)  SUMMARY:  Botswana President Festus G. Mogae's June 
13 meeting with President Bush provides an opportunity to 
affirm and advance Botswana's role as a partner in promoting 
peace, democracy and human rights in Africa, increasing 
economic growth through trade, and combating HIV/AIDS. 
Botswana's prudent management of its mineral resources and 
commitment to good governance have enabled it to achieve 
remarkable success in development and economic growth since 
it gained independence from the U.K. in 1966.  In response to 
the rapid spread of HIV/AIDS in the country, the Government 
has taken bold measures to provide prevention, care and 
treatment services to its citizens.  Reflecting the growing 
strain that HIV/AIDS has placed on the country's budget, the 
President has recently expressed his hope that foreign donors 
will not continue to "punish" Botswana for managing its 
affairs well by withholding development assistance.  Mission 
has made clear that the US-Botswana partnership is predicated 
on shared democra 
tic values.  The continuation and strengthening of that 
relationship must be accompanied by the preservation of 
Botswana's democratic traditions and expansion of its role as 
a proponent of stability and democracy in the region, the 
continent and beyond.  END SUMMARY. 
 
---------- 
BACKGROUND 
---------- 
 
2. (U)  When Botswana achieved independence from the United 
Kingdom in 1966, it was one of the ten poorest countries in 
the world.  The country boasted a per capita income of less 
than USD 100, fewer than 8,000 meters of paved road and a 
handful of university graduates.  Following the discovery of 
diamonds in 1967 and commencement of mining in 1971, this 
situation began to change.  Unlike other nations blessed with 
great mineral wealth, the Government of Botswana ploughed its 
diamond revenues into investments in infrastructure, 
education and health care.  Between 1967 and 1997, Botswana's 
economy grew at an average annual rate of nine percent. 
Education, while not compulsory, is free from Kindergarten 
through PH.D. This has helped Botswana achieve an adult 
literacy rate of 81 percent.  By 2000, Botswana became one of 
the few developing countries to graduate to middle-income 
status.  Today, this Texas-sized country of 1.7 million 
people now enjoys a per capita income of USD 4,800 and an 
investment grade sovereign credit rating at the "A" level. 
Botswana now faces the challenge of rectifying the skewed 
distribution of its national wealth, maintaining economic 
growth despite the loss of many of the country's most 
productive workers to HIV/AIDS, diversifying its economy, and 
meeting the high cost of providing various HIV/AIDS 
prevention and treatment programs. 
 
------------------------ 
DEMOCRACY & HUMAN RIGHTS 
------------------------ 
 
3. (U)  Botswana's remarkable development success is due 
primarily to its commitment to good governance.  Transparency 
International has consistently ranked Botswana the least 
corrupt country in Africa.  The Economic Freedom  of the 
World Report lists Botswana as the continent's freest 
economy. Listed as  number 18 in the report, Botswana is 
ranked higher than France, Germany and Japan. Botswana's 
democratic political culture is evidenced by its independent 
judiciary, a vibrant private press, and a range of political 
parties.  These successes notwithstanding, Botswana faces 
some challenges in preserving and expanding its democratic 
traditions. 
 
4. (C)  President Festus G. Mogae was re-elected President of 
Botswana on October 30, 2004 in Botswana's ninth 
parliamentary elections, in which the Botswana Democratic 
Party returned to power as it has in every election since 
independence.  President Mogae's term will expire in 2008 but 
he is widely expected to retire early, perhaps in 2007, to 
allow Vice President Seretse Khama Ian Khama two years in 
power before facing elections in 2009.  Although Khama is 
widely revered as the son of Botswana's first President Sir 
Seretse Khama as well as being the Paramount Chief of the 
country's largest ethnic group, the Bamangwato, Khama is not 
universally liked or trusted.  Many, including members of his 
own party, senior traditional leaders, journalists and human 
rights activists, worry that Khama lacks tolerance for 
dissent and respect for human rights (Refs A and B). 
 
5. (U)  Although Botswana has a commendable record of 
respecting human rights, two recent cases have aroused 
concern in the international community.  In 2002, the 
Government of Botswana compelled the San/Basarwa ethnic 
minority residents of the Central Kalahari Game Reserve 
(CKGR) to relocate to settlements outside the park ostensibly 
to preserve the ecosystem within the CKGR, reduce the costs 
of providing public services to these communities and provide 
the group an opportunity to improve their wellbeing.  Court 
hearings are currently underway in a legal challenge waged by 
some of those who were relocated and claim that their 
constitutional rights were violated.  Bipartisan members of 
the United States Congress have written to President Mogae to 
express their concern that the relocation policy 
discriminates against a marginalized minority and threatens 
to eliminate their culture.  Post anticipates a court ruling 
on this case within the next two months. 
 
6. (U)  On May 31, Botswana's High Court upheld as 
constitutional a February 18 deportation order against 
critical academic Professor Kenneth Good pursuant to 
President Mogae's declaring Good to be a prohibited immigrant 
(Ref C).  Good was immediately detained by immigration 
officials and put on a plane to South Africa that evening. 
According to the Office of the President, Mogae had received 
reliable information that the seventy-year old professor 
posed a threat Botswana's national security.  The High Court 
confirmed the constitutionality of a law which exempts the 
president from disclosing to the judiciary or to the public 
his reasons for declaring someone a prohibited immigrant. 
Although the fact that the High Court intervened on February 
19 and insisted on hearing Good's allegations demonstrated 
the independence of the judiciary in Botswana, the outcome 
raised concerns about the protection of free speech and about 
the overwhelming power wielded by the executive in Botswana. 
 
7. (U)  Cognizant that Botswana's good governance made 
possible its development success, Mission has emphasized that 
Botswana's reputation as a liberal and stable democracy is 
its greatest asset.  Its ability to attract foreign direct 
investment in the future will turn on its continued 
commitment to these values. 
 
--------------------- 
THE HIV/AIDS EPIDEMIC 
--------------------- 
 
8. (U)  UNAIDS estimates that as many as 330,000 Batswana out 
of a population of 1.7 million are now living with HIV/AIDS; 
many are not aware of their status.  The infection rate among 
pregnant women aged 15-49 is 37.4 percent.  Officially, some 
18 percent of all deaths in the country are due to AIDS, 
although the actual percentage is probably much higher.  The 
size of the nation's growing orphan population, largely 
attributable to AIDS, is estimated at 112,000 but some 
predict that it could rise to as high as 214,000 by 2010. 
Over 207,000 Batswana have been tested (some more than once) 
since the inception of USG-funded "Tebelopele" voluntary 
counseling and testing centers.  Eight of the sixteen 
"Tebelopele" sites were constructed using DoD Humanitarian 
Assistance funds managed by the Office of Defense 
Cooperation.  The Peace Corps program, which encompasses 
fifty-eight volunteers, focuses exclusively on combating 
HIV/AIDS. 
 
9. (U) President Mogae has called HIV/AIDS "the greatest 
challenge Botswana has faced," and has spearheaded a multi- 
sectoral strategy including prevention, care and treatment 
programs.  A key component of the strategy is a free public 
anti-retroviral treatment program, the first of its kind and 
scale in the world.  Nearly 43,000 patients currently receive 
treatment at government clinics throughout the country.  An 
additional 6,000 people are treated through private medical 
schemes.  Botswana also introduced routine testing for 
HIV/AIDS at government health facilities. 
 
10. (U) Botswana's private/public partners in its overall 
efforts to combat HIV/AIDS include the U.S. Government 
(primarily through CDC, the Department of State, Peace Corps, 
the Department of Defense and USAID), Baylor University, 
Harvard University, Bristol Myers Squibb, the Bill and 
Melinda Gates Foundation, the Merck Foundation and a number 
of non-governmental organizations. 
 
11. (U) A dozen international staff and more than one hundred 
local technical and support staff work in the BOTUSA Project 
- a collaboration of the Botswana government and CDC.  The 
BOTUSA Project provides technical assistance, consultation, 
and funding; implements programs; and conducts research with 
the Botswana Government and other local and international 
partners for the prevention, care, treatment and surveillance 
of HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and sexually transmitted diseases 
(STDs).  All components of the Embassy work closely together 
in implementing the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS 
Relief, which provided more than USD 21 million in HIV/AIDS 
assistance in fiscal year 2004 and has doubled that 
assistance to more than USD 40 million in fiscal year 2005. 
The Emergency Plan is rolling out well in Botswana due in 
part to the consultative manner in which the U.S. Mission 
developed the program with the Government of Botswana, civil 
society and United Nations programs. 
 
12. (U) Happily, some indicators suggest that the epidemic's 
rate of growth may be plateauing. Prevalence rates in 
government surveillance studies for 2001, 2002 and 2003 were 
36.2 percent, 35.4 percent and 37.4 percent respectively. 
There also has been a decrease in rates of sexually 
transmitted diseases and some evidence of a decline in risky 
sexual behavior. 
 
13. (U) However, even with support from numerous 
international donors, the cost of dealing with HIV/AIDS is 
taking a heavy toll.  Announcing a budget shortfall for the 
third year in a row, President Mogae stressed that the cost 
of confronting HIV/AIDS, and associated costs such as 
developing HIV/AIDS medical infrastructure and caring for 
AIDS orphans and their elderly caregivers, caused a 
significant drain on the national budget.  The GOB is 
contributing USD 140 million from its budget this year to 
combat HIV/AIDS.  Indirect costs, such as lost productivity 
due to illness, compound the problem. 
 
-------------------- 
TRADE AND INVESTMENT 
-------------------- 
 
14. (U)  Botswana is an economic success story due largely to 
its prudent fiscal and monetary policies.  The Government ran 
balanced budgets for decades and only in the past five years 
has it encountered deficit budgets, due largely to the costs 
of fighting HIV/AIDS.  Although a May 2005 devaluation of the 
Pula by 12.5 percent is likely to boost prices and shake 
investor confidence, the Bank of Botswana historically has 
kept the inflation rate relatively low and stable -- 7 
percent for 2004.  Consequently, Botswana enjoys a nominal 
per capita GNP of USD 4,800.  In 2003/4, real GDP grew at 5.7 
percent, down from 7.8 percent in 2002/3.  The GOB projects 
that real GDP growth will slow to between 4 and 5 percent 
next year as a result of expected slow-downs in both mineral 
and non-mineral growth.  These achievements notwithstanding, 
Botswana has one of the most skewed income distributions in 
the world, an unemployment rate of 24 percent (unofficial 
estimates are higher), and 30 percent of its population lives 
in poverty. 
 
15. (U)  To expand economic growth and reduce its dependence 
on diamonds, which account for 70-80 percent of all export 
earnings, one half of government revenues and one-third of 
Botswana's gross domestic product, the GOB set up an 
attractive tax regime, lifted foreign exchange controls, and 
established bodies to facilitate investment in Botswana.  In 
July 2004, OPIC signed an investment guarantee  with the 
Kalahari Gas Corporation and Covalent Energy Corporation from 
Virginia to develop Coal Bed Methane (CBM) gas reserves in 
eastern Botswana. 
 
16. (U)  In 2004, U.S. exports to Botswana totaled USD 51.6 
million, while imports equaled USD 73 million, reflecting 
growth from 2003 of 98 percent and 433 percent, respectively. 
 First quarter 2005 trade figures show continued growth in 
both U.S. exports (122 percent growth) and imports (61 
percent growth) versus the first quarter of 2004.  Botswana 
exported USD 20.1 million to the U.S. under AGOA in 2004, 
more than triple the figure for 2003.  Botswana is looking to 
diversify into other AGOA-eligible products, such as leather 
and glass items, but has so far been unsuccessful. 
 
------------------------------ 
BOTSWANA - INCOMING SADC CHAIR 
------------------------------ 
 
17.  (C)  Botswana will take over from Mauritius as chair of 
the Southern African Development Community (SADC) at a 
regional summit in August 2005.  Although the GOB is still 
putting together an agenda for its tenure as chair, it is 
likely to focus on putting SADC's internal affairs in order. 
SADC is in the process of constructing a new headquarters to 
replace the current premises which it overflowed years ago. 
The secretariat expects significant personnel turnover during 
2005, which is likely to slow its operations.  Botswana's 
Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation is 
concerned about SADC's backlog of unused development 
assistance from Europe and hopes to put that money to work in 
the coming year.  As expected, initial indications from the 
MFA suggest that Botswana is not eager to use its 
chairmanship of SADC to pressure the Mugabe regime on the 
democracy and human rights front. 
 
18. (C)  The crisis in Zimbabwe continues to pose problems 
for Botswana, primarily through illegal immigration. 
Botswana's immigration authorities deported an average of 
4,800 Zimbabwean border jumpers each month in 2004.  Prior to 
the Zimbabwean election, which Botswana's observers 
legitimized as fair and reflective of the popular will, the 
GOB was harried by occasional criticism in the regional 
press, which the MFA suspected was planted by then Minister 
of Information and Publicity in Harare Jonathan Moyo (Ref D). 
 Some of these articles took the GOB to task for constructing 
an 8-foot high, electrified fence along part of the 
Botswana-Zimbabwe border to prevent the transmission of 
disease to Botswana's cattle herd.  Other news pieces 
targeted the International Broadcasting Board's station in 
Selebi-Phikwe (located in the northeastern part of the 
country) which broadcasts Voice of America programming into 
Zimbabwe.  Although the Government of Zimbabwe reportedly 
raised concerns about these two issues, Botswana's MFA has 
received no new complaints since the March 2005 elections. 
The MFA hopes this presages a return to amicable relations 
with Zimbabwe. 
 
19. (U)  Botswana has been an active participant in the talks 
regarding a possible free trade agreement between the United 
States and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU).  While 
SACU member states still have not yet arrived at common 
negotiating positions, the GOB is hopeful that the staffing 
of a SACU secretariat, completed in April of this year, will 
expedite that process.  If the FTA negotiations succeed, the 
SACU countries would open up a USD 125 billion market of 
fifty million consumers to the U.S. private sector.  An FTA 
would also help the SACU countries attract further foreign 
direct investment to the region in support of its economic 
diversification. 
 
--------------------- 
RELUCTANT PEACEKEEPER 
--------------------- 
 
20. (U) The Botswana Defense Force (BDF) is a small, 
professional, apolitical force that focuses on border defense 
but also meets new, non-traditional national and regional 
security challenges, such as apprehension of illegal 
migrants, disaster relief and anti-poaching.  The U.S. is 
assisting Botswana with long-term peacekeeping capacity 
building via the Enhanced International Peacekeeping 
Capability (EIPC) program and the African Contingency 
Operations Training and Assistance (ACOTA) program. The ACOTA 
program has trained two BDF Infantry Battalions and will have 
trained a third by the end of September. 
 
21. (C)  Although Botswana has a proven record of 
accomplishment in past peacekeeping operations -- Somalia in 
1992, Mozambique in 1993, Lesotho in 1998 -- it is reluctant 
to commit substantial resources to a peacekeeping operation 
(PKO) in Darfur or other hot spots in Africa.  The Government 
of Botswana has articulated the following criteria for any 
PKO in which it would participate: the mission must be led by 
a Western Power, there must be a clear exit strategy and end 
state, the host country must specifically invite Botswana's 
participation, and the mission must be in the national 
interest of Botswana.  According to the MFA, any such 
participation also must be politically salable at home.  The 
GOB has indicated that a significant presence in Darfur would 
expose its forces to attacks from the Jangaweed militants as 
well as GOS military forces, a price it is not willing to 
pay.  However, according to some senior BDF officers, the 
military understands the importance of PKOs and is preparing 
for its inevitable role in some future operation.  Botswana 
has received three USG C-130s through excess defense articles 
sales.  Botswana could carve out a niche in African 
peacekeeping by using its C-130s to move troops from their 
country to the country of the peacekeeping operation.  This 
is a low risk mission both politically and militarily.  But 
fall-out from Botswana's signing of the extremely unpopular 
Article 98 agreement on July 1 2003, still influences the 
Government's political willingness to accommodate the USG on 
PKO projects. 
 
--------------------------- 
PARTNER IN WAR ON TERRORISM 
--------------------------- 
 
22. (U)  As one of the first countries to sign all 12 of the 
UN protocols on terrorism, the Government of Botswana 
recognizes that its good infrastructure and open economy 
could attract organizations seeking to use the country as a 
place to stage terrorist attacks.  Mission is working with 
the Treasury Department's Office of Technical Assistance and 
the GOB to initiate a program of assistance to enable the GOB 
to develop the capacity to prevent and prosecute acts of 
money laundering and financing of terrorism.  The 
International Law Enforcement Academy, located outside 
Gaborone, has conducted training specifically addressing 
terrorist financing and provides other courses that deal with 
various aspects of counter-terrorism, such as border 
management. 
 
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PARTNERSHIP PREDICATED ON SHARED VALUES 
--------------------------------------- 
 
23.  (U)  Mission has made clear through conversations with 
the GOB and via public outreach that its partnership with the 
people of Botswana is predicated on shared democratic values. 
 The continuation and strengthening of our relationship must 
be accompanied by the preservation of Botswana's own 
democratic traditions and the expansion of its role as an 
active proponent of stability and democracy in the region, 
the continent, and beyond. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
MOGAE LIKELY TO RAISE ASSISTANCE QUESTION 
----------------------------------------- 
 
24. (U)  During the May 17 - 19 visit to Botswana of 
President Pohamba of Namibia, President Mogae stated at a 
press conference that donor nations should not punish 
Botswana by withholding development assistance because it is 
now a middle-income country.  This statement brought to the 
fore a sentiment previously expressed by various GOB 
officials that Botswana's good governance ironically appears 
to have had the regrettable affect, from Botswana's 
perspective, of drying up foreign assistance.  President 
Mogae is likely to raise this point with President Bush, 
particularly stressing the costs of fighting HIV/AIDS, in 
making a case for reviving development assistance to Botswana. 
HUGGINS