US embassy cable - 05THEHAGUE1536

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 001536 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, NL, EUN 
SUBJECT: DUTCH REFERENDUM YIELDS HUGE NO 
 
REF:  A) The Hague 1470 
 
      B) The Hague 1434 
      C) The Hague 393 
      D) 6/1/05 "Politics in the Netherlands" and previous 
Summary:  Dutch voters delivered a resounding rejection of 
the EU Constitutional Treaty by voting overwhelmingly 
against it (62 to 38 percent) in a national referendum on 
June 1.  More surprising than the negative result was the 
high turnout of almost 63 percent.  Although the referendum 
is technically non-binding, the government and the main 
political parties who had lobbied in favor of the treaty 
have all said they will respect the will of the people by 
not ratifying the treaty.  Parliament will debate next steps 
June 2, however, and may ask the government to withdraw the 
ratification act to avoid taking a formal vote on 
ratification (Prime Minister Balkenende has indicated the 
government would do so if asked.)  The government is urging 
other EU member states to continue their own ratification 
processes, and may seek to retain the option of revisiting 
Dutch ratification at a later date.  Balkenende has made 
clear that he, unlike Chirac, does not intend to make any 
changes in his government in response to the vote.  End 
Summary. 
 
BIG NEE, BUT NO BIG CHANGES 
--------------------------- 
 
2. The Dutch people have spoken on the EU Constitution and, 
by a margin of 62 percent to 38 percent, have said "Nee". 
While the high turnout -- 63 percent -- was unexpected, PM 
Balkenende stressed in press remarks following the vote that 
he does not consider the result a vote of no confidence in 
his government.  He is therefore not expected to initiate 
any changes in his cabinet as a result, despite a small 
number of calls for the resignation of Foreign Minister Bot 
and Secretary of State for European Affairs Nicolai. 
 
3. Although "obviously disappointed" with the result, 
Balkenende and others attempted to put a positive spin on 
the high turnout, noting that the intense debate generated 
during the campaign could benefit Dutch politics in the long 
run.  Balkenende also took note of the "clear signal" sent 
by voters and promised to work within the EU "to do justice" 
to legitimate Dutch concerns regarding loss of sovereignty, 
the pace of integration, and the excessive Dutch financial 
contribution to the EU.  Pointing out that the referendum 
was a Parliamentary (as opposed to government) initiative, 
Balkenende emphasized that "it is up to the parliament to 
decide what should happen next." 
 
WHAT NEXT? 
---------- 
 
4. Parliament will meet on June 2 in a special session to 
debate the referendum results.  In late night television and 
radio debates on the evening of June 1, spokesman from 
across the political spectrum congratulated the "No" camp 
from running an effective campaign.  Parliamentary leaders 
from the main establishment parties campaigning in favor of 
the Treaty openly acknowledged the need to reconnect with an 
electorate clearly dissatisfied with the status quo.  All 
parties agreed that the referendum had been "a success" with 
regard to stimulating public interest in the EU and politic 
in general. "A triumph for democracy," said PvdA leader 
Wouter Bos, who also believed that the referendum could help 
to restore people's faith in politics. 
 
5.  While all party spokesmen have agreed to act in 
accordance with the results of the referendum, several were 
cautious not to declare the Treaty itself dead.  Rather than 
holding a ratification vote immediately -- as the "No" camp 
prefers -- Parliament could vote to ask the government to 
withdraw the ratification act, thus leaving the treaty in 
legal limbo (signed, but not ratified or rejected).  This 
would leave open the option of resubmitting the treaty for 
ratification at a later date, perhaps after other EU members 
have made their views clear and/or some specific Dutch 
concerns have been addressed.  Balkenende has expressed his 
willingness to pursue this route, but will only do so if a 
large majority of Parliamentarians instruct him to do, thus 
sharing the political responsibility for what could be seen 
as an effort to evade the will of the people. 
 
COMMENT: 
------------- 
 
6.  There is no doubt that, to the public, a "no" is a "no". 
The Netherlands will not ratify the Treaty in the near term, 
but Parliament may still try to avoid rejecting it outright 
if possible to preserve some measure of flexibility. 
Although Balkenende clearly does not intend to treat the 
result as a vote of no confidence in his leadership, the 
public will be watching closely how he -- and the rest of 
the political establishment -- handle the issue in coming 
weeks.  Politicians, observers, and analysts here will no 
doubt continue to argue for weeks over exactly what the "no" 
means for European integration and, more immediately, for 
Dutch domestic politics. 
 
Sobel