US embassy cable - 02ABUJA2171

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 002171 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2012 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: FAILED PDP PRIMARY INDICATES MORE THAN 
PARTY STRIFE FOR NIGERIAN ELECTORAL PROCESS 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER. REASON 1.5 (B) AND 
(D). 
 
 
1. (C) Summary: Many states delayed PDP primaries slated for 
early July for fear of violence.  Violent disturbances marred 
the primaries that did go forward; Post sources could verify 
peaceful primaries in only four states.  Vice President Atiku 
Abubakar indicated that agreements aimed at limiting violence 
within and between parties are being struck. Even days after 
the primaries, it is difficult to give a detailed account of 
what transpired as the situation in many areas remains 
uncertain.  However, this message attempts to give a 
representative sampling of what we have learned thus far. 
Clearly the PDP is a fragmented machine and its inability to 
conduct credible party primaries indicates continued trouble 
for the electoral process. 
 
 
---------- 
PDP Primary 
---------- 
 
 
2. (U) PDP primaries held in early July turned violent in 
much of the country. Rioting, property damage, bodily injury 
and deaths were reported in several states. A number of 
states postponed the primaries in all or large portions of 
their territory in anticipation of trouble. Other states 
called off primaries when clashes between party factions 
erupted in violence too difficult to control. Primaries were 
successfully completed without violence in Zamfara, Sokoto, 
Borno and Jigawa State.  Primaries were not held in Katsina 
State, Sokoto State, Abia State or Plateau State. In Plateau 
State, a scene of earlier PDP factional violence, the primary 
was postponed following an ethnic clash that occurred on the 
previous weekend; ultimately, Plateau chose its candidates by 
consensus, except for three of the most volatile LGAs in Jos 
itself. 
 
 
3. (U) In Taraba State, two persons were reported killed and 
10 injured in election related violence. In the comparatively 
calm Federal Capital Territory (FCT), only three of six 
councils were able to complete the exercise. In Kaduna State, 
rival candidates are rumored to be solving their differences 
prior to the primary by agreeing on a consensus candidate. 
The state party had hoped to head off potential violence in 
this manner. However, Kaduna State later moved ahead with its 
primaries, which became marred by violence with 15 persons 
reportedly killed.  An Embassy FSN witnessed several persons 
in Kwara State being taken into police custody, with what 
appeared to be knife and other injuries in primary-related 
violence. 
 
 
 
 
4. (U) In Delta State, widespread violence on June 30 caused 
the postponement of the July 1 caucus. Two people reportedly 
died while seven persons sustained serious injuries. Police 
have arrested at least 40 rioters for electoral violence and 
illegal possession of arms. In Rivers State, the primary was 
halted and rescheduled for July 9 in four councils due to 
violence. On July 9, violence marred the rescheduled primary, 
and many persons reportedly fled to Port Harcourt or remained 
in their homes. According to reports, over 100 were left 
homeless after their homes were destroyed by rioters.  In 
Bayelsa State 4-8 people lost their lives killed during the 
primary violence and at least 15 people were seriously 
injured. Twelve houses were set ablaze. Imo State PDP 
conducted its primaries July 5.  Approximately 20 were 
injured and several incidents of vandalism and arson were 
reported. 
 
 
 
 
5. (U) The party in Edo State completed the primary with 
credible results; however, some local chapters of the PDP 
lodged complaints at the party secretariat alleging gross 
irregularities in the primary process. There were reports 
that thousands of protestors disrupted the primaries in 
several wards. In Ogun State, aggrieved members of the party 
have also lodged several complaints at the party secretariat. 
The Oyo state PDP congress was moved to Abuja after a failed 
attempt to hold it in Ibadan. Many aspirants have complained 
of manipulation and unfair use of executive power in Adamawa 
State.  Aspirants and their supporters have protested the use 
of minors and bribery to manipulate primary results. The 
State PDP Chairman stunned journalists when asked to comment 
on the alleged "rigging or irregularities".  Chief Joel 
Madaki stated, "Rigging is a nice word.  I like it.  It is 
acceptable in politics." In Kano State many candidates 
reported irregularities and have threatened to leave the PDP. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
Failed and Postponed Primaries not Surprising 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
 
6. (S) In late June, PDP Chairman Audu Ogbeh told the DCM 
that he feared for Nigeria because the country's productive 
economy was in ruins and the only thing left for people to 
"do" was politics. Given the PDP's track record, Ogbeh 
doubted the PDP primaries would be free of violence in very 
many places.  He stated that Governors were trying to force 
through lists that favored them, even though primaries had 
not been held. (Note: The governors are not the only ones, 
lists coming from Aso Rock also add to the tension.  End 
Note.) Ogbeh said he told several governors that he would 
simply substitute in other names if he thought they were 
playing tricks; as Party Chairman he had the authority to 
certify the party's candidates.  (Note: This so-called fix 
has its flaws. Not only is it arbitrary, previous past PDP 
chairmen reportedly made money from the practice of changing 
lists). 
 
 
7. (C) A PDP member of the National Assembly told Poloffs 
that the primary in Anambra State was marred by cheating. 
The Representative stated that he witnessed "open ballot" 
voting for local government candidates in one ward that 
produced an undisputed winner, only to find that the defeated 
contestant had emerged victorious when the results were 
compiled at the state level. He claimed similar chicanery was 
practiced throughout the state. Dr. C.P. Eziefe, former 
Anambra State governor and currently a Special Advisor to the 
President, told Polcouns that candidates in the PDP primaries 
in Abuja had bussed people from outside the capital to skew 
the election results.  In Bayelsa State, he claimed the 
governor had issued an ultimatum to all LGA contestants: He 
had already selected who would win the nomination, thus there 
was no need to run against his handpicked choices.  To soften 
the blow, the governor offered to compensate the losers for 
their campaign expenses if they agreed to drop out of the 
race before the primary.  Those with the temerity to continue 
against the governor's wishes, would have to swallow their 
loss and well as their own expenses. Ezeife contended that 
the party's national executive committee, itself a victim of 
internecine fighting, was too divided and overwhelmed to 
prevent these transgressions from happening right under their 
noses in the nation's capital let alone in more distant 
places. 
 
 
8. (C) Perhaps most disturbing of all, a group of Northern 
elder statesmen, whose political careers date back to the 
First Republic, recently told the Ambassador that political 
divisions in Nigeria are greater now than at any time in 
their collective memories.  In 2003 they expected a 
conflagration. 
 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
 
9. (C) Party primaries were fraught with intrigue, 
discrepancies and outright cheating. There are several 
reasons for this. As Minister of Defense and PDP king maker 
Danjuma recently told the Ambassador, the PDP is perceived to 
be so dominant in many states that winning the primary is 
tantamount to capturing the general election.  Thus, the 
competition in the primaries in these areas has been as keen 
as what would be expected in the final inter-party 
competition. Thus, as a general rule, there was probably more 
upheaval in those areas where the PDP believes it is the 
strongest party. Second, there is the tenuous nature of the 
PDP itself. Despite some efforts by PDP Chairman Ogbeh and 
others to instill discipline and propriety, the PDP has very 
little cohesion.  In fact, the PDP is not a political party 
in the traditional sense, but a loose confederation of very 
disparate groups.  Too many of the PDP's members see the 
party as a platform to promote and maximize their personal 
interests not as a party to which they owe allegiance. 
Instead of following the party, they believe the party should 
follow them.  This led to relatively unbridled competition in 
some areas where contestants tried to out-cheat the other. 
This lack of restraint inexorably invited violence. Third, 
there is common belief among those seeking national as well 
as gubernatorial seats that placing allies in local 
government is an essential building-block to their electoral 
victory. Therefore, contestants for larger offices used the 
local primaries as a type of proxy battle.  Last and most 
fundamentally, a great number of politicians do not value the 
democratic process. The will of the voter comes in second to 
the wishes of the "big man."  Sadly, the political system is 
weak and cannot correct itself easily; thus, misconduct 
cascades. The minute one person misbehaves, others respond in 
kind; honesty puts one at a severe competitive disadvantage 
since there is little chance misconduct will be punished. 
 
 
10. (C) Comment continued.  Flawed and unseemly, the PDP 
primaries highlight the major problems in Nigerian electoral 
politics.  It is a zero-sum, winner-take-all gambit that no 
one wants to lose. As such, it is a harbinger, indeed a 
warning of the difficulties that lay ahead for the general 
elections.  Hopefully, the impact of the PDP primaries will 
register on sober minds in all the parties, the electoral 
commission, and the security forces so that they will begin 
to take steps that curb violence.  However, the reality is 
that as long as many political practitioners see politics as 
an "all-or- nothing" affair, unruly competition and some 
level of violence will occasion most electoral contests. 
 
 
JETER