US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI4089

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 004089 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, ENRG, CE, IN, PK, INDO-PAK 
SUBJECT: PM OPTIMISTIC ON INDO-PAK BUT COUNSELS AGAINST 
DEADLINES 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 3745 
     B. NEW DELHI 3213 
     C. NEW DELHI 1480 
 
Classified By: Acting DCM Geoff Pyatt, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (U) Summary:  Speaking to foreign journalists on May 30 
regarding the UPA government's one year anniversary, PM 
Manmohan Singh offered an upbeat assessment of Indo-Pak 
relations, but warned that a major terrorist attack could 
still derail the peace process.  He also advised against 
artificial deadlines for any settlement.  Focusing on the 
positive effects of CBMs with Pakistan, the PM said New Delhi 
would consider greater autonomy for J&K "if needed."  The PM 
expressed his desire for a peaceful resolution to the 
conflict in Sri Lanka and denied opposition claims that 
Congress Party leader Sonia Gandhi was interfering with 
government operations.  End Summary. 
 
PM Upbeat on Indo-Pak, Seeks More CT Action by Islamabad 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
2.  (U) In his May 30 foreign correspondents briefing, the PM 
announced that he looked forward to a future visit to 
Pakistan, proclaiming that "I do believe we have moved 
forward."  Consistent with previous statements, Singh said 
that he was willing to discuss all issues with the GOP and 
work to find a "meaningful solution" with two limitations: 
"no further division of India on religious lines," and no 
redrawing borders. 
 
3.  (U) Singh highlighted confidence-building measures such 
as joint water resources management in Kashmir and efforts to 
resolve the Baglihar Dam dispute (Ref B) and other cross 
border water issues (Ref C) and was optimistic that increased 
economic and people-to-people interaction would further 
improve India-Pakistan relations.  He stressed the importance 
of a secure Pakistan as India's bridge to Central Asia, but 
he did not mention Iran or any other Central Asian countries 
by name in this context.  Singh did offer that all parties 
involved in the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline 
could work together to make the project a reality, and noted 
the US-India dialogue on the issue. 
 
4.  (U) Responding to Pakistan President Musharraf's prior 
public remarks that peace could be concluded by the end of 
both leaders' tenures, Singh said that fixing a timeline 
would be "unrealistic."  He did indicate that India would 
consider greater autonomy for Jammu and Kashmir "if needed." 
 
5.  (U) The overall tone of Singh's remarks was optimistic, 
although he cautioned that a major terrorist attack, 
comparable to those on Parliament and the Kashmir State 
Assembly in late 2001, could erase the gains made in Indo-Pak 
rapprochement.  Singh reiterated that the "first condition" 
for normalization was "control of terrorist acts," cautioning 
that although progress has been made, Pakistan has not done 
enough to dismantle its terrorist infrastructure. 
 
Media Spin More Negative Than PM's Remarks 
------------------------------------------ 
 
6.  (C) Some journalists chose to emphasize these cautionary 
statements as the main focus of the PM's remarks, concluding 
that the PM is less hopeful about relations with Pakistan 
than commonly thought.   However, Dawn's New Delhi 
correspondent Jawed Naqvi, who attended the press conference, 
insisted to Poloff that those journalists took the terrorism 
remarks out of context and that the PM was indeed optimistic. 
 Naqvi reported that Singh emphasized the need to keep moving 
forward on issues like water and energy cooperation with 
Pakistan. 
 
Other Issues Addressed 
---------------------- 
 
7.  (U) The PM paid less attention to other outstanding 
issues.  For example, in response to a question on dangers 
from LTTE naval and air bases in Sri Lanka, Singh said that 
India has a "very vital stake" in Sri Lankan unity and 
peaceful resolution of the ethnic conflict.  Singh also 
denied opposition allegations that Sonia Gandhi was 
"interfering" with the workings of the government. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
8.  (C) Reporters who attended the conference were initially 
told it would be "informal" and "off the record" and were not 
prepared to file reports.  Caught unawares, they rushed to 
get their stories filed, resulting in confusion and 
contradiction.  In our estimation, Singh's remarks were 
consistent with recent MEA optimism on Indo-Pak relations, 
and reflect the PM's continued personal commitment to peace 
with Pakistan (Ref A).  The PM is ready to work with GOP and 
is confident that CBMs and increased economic interaction 
will contribute to better relations.  Although some news 
outlets chose to over-emphasize the few comments about the 
potential of a terrorist attack to derail the peace process, 
these were taken out of context.  That being said, it is 
notable that the PM chose to counsel publicly against 
deadlines for the Indo-Pak process. 
BLAKE