US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI2376

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002376 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ROBERT 
PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Cross Strait Politics, Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN 
 
 
Summary:  Major Taiwan newspapers shifted some of their focus 
away from politics this weekend, and offered front-page 
stories on various topics such as poisoned local energy 
drinks, the funeral of Taiwan's "Godfather," and top music 
awards.  The dailies did, however, focus some attention on 
constitutional reforms to be ratified by the National 
Assembly.  The front-page banner headline of the pro- 
independence "Liberty Times" on May 29 read: "300 Members of 
the National Assembly to Meet; Political Parties Take Moves to 
Secure Votes."  The pro-unification "United Daily News" 
followed the next day with a front-page banner that read: 
"National Assembly Kicks Off Meeting. President Chen Shui-bian 
and DPP Chairman Su Chen-chang Keep Their Eyes on DPP 
Deputies."  Editorially, the Chinese-language dailies in 
Taipei commented on constitutional amendments and political 
manipulation.  Pro-independence newspapers continued to 
criticize China on their op-ed pages for using the power of 
Taiwan's opposition parties to achieve the goal of annexing 
Taiwan.   End summary. 
 
A) "United States Loses Leading Role In Taiwan Strait - Part 
II" 
 
Lai I-chung, Director for Foreign Policy Studies of the 
Taiwan Thinktank, wrote in the pro-independence "Taiwan 
Daily" [circulation: 150,000] in the second part of his two- 
part commentary on cross-Strait relations  (5/28): 
 
"One key development after the meetings between [KMT 
Chairman] Lien [Chan], [PFP Chairman James] Soong, and 
[Chinese President] Hu [Jintao] is that the United States 
has lost its leading role in the Taiwan Strait, and this is 
why the U.S. State Department spokesman said a few days ago 
that the United States did not intend to control, so it 
could not control the cross-Strait situation. . 
 
"The main reason [why] the United States has fallen into 
such a tragic predicament, besides Hu Jintao's sophisticated 
manipulations, Lien's and Soong's gutlessness, and the 
Taiwan government's panicked leadership, is the United 
States' own arrogance and stupidity. 
 
"There have been rumors in society that when the United 
States' agency in Taiwan met with the Pan-Blue camp, the Pan- 
Blue political powers used the [statement] that [they] would 
support the arms procurements after the visits to China to 
ease the United States' concerns, plus it is also rumored 
that Lien's and Soong's meetings with Hu Jintao could also 
facilitate the Bian-Hu meeting in the future, so the United 
States did not show worry in public.  In the past the United 
States could do nothing about the Pan-Blue camp's blocking 
of the arms procurements, now it can be considered that the 
Pan-Blue camp has used the arms procurements in an almost 
threatening way to get its pass to China, and we can see 
whether the arms procurement [bill] passes [in the 
Legislative Yuan], the United States has been 'had' by the 
Pan-Blue, and this has been the United States' first 
miscalculation. 
 
". The United States' second miscalculation is that it put 
too little weight on the meetings between Lien, Soong and 
Hu.  Even when Washington came to realize the situation was 
not good, it could do nothing but admit unhappily that the 
United States has no control over the Taiwan Strait 
situation. 
 
". [T]he [reasons that] the United States managed to have 
initiatives regarding the Taiwan Strait situation in the 
past, besides its own projected military power, also 
included [the fact that] Taiwan's democracy had been 
unwilling to accept political arrangements by the Chinese 
Communist Party's authoritarian regime, and the United 
States' interference was justified as a means to protect 
Taiwan's democracy.  But now because Hu Jintao has started 
to penetrate Taiwan's political agenda, and has become as 
justified as the United States by controlling the Pan-Blue 
camp, the United States' ability to initiate Taiwan Strait 
[matters] has been nullified.  From now on, the United 
States is no longer a controller who `defines the status quo 
in Taiwan Strait,' but has become a competitor in 
competition with China over political influence in Taiwan, 
and whether there will be a `Bian-Hu meeting' no longer 
means much. 
 
"Hu Jintao is a sophisticated manipulator, Lien Chan is 
gutless, James Soong is an adventurer, and the United States 
miscalculates, but if the governing national security team 
could hold its breath for the sake of long-term strategic 
consideration and play a leadership role, Hu Jintao's risky 
step to meet Lien and Soong could become a new wave of 
pressure on China after international society's opposition 
to `The Anti-Secession Law,' and this wave of pressure could 
also become the basis for the Green and Blue political 
parties in the country to unite and love Taiwan. In other 
words, the governing team should play the role of an 
initiator.  The ability to initiate here does not lie in the 
`proclamation of who could lead,' but lies in the ability to 
define the creation of issues. 
 
B) "China Uses an Indirect Way to Usurp Pro-China Pan-Blue 
Political Parties to Paralyze the Arms Procurement Special 
Budget Bill" 
 
The pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" [circulation: 150,000] 
editorializes (5/28): 
 
". In recent years, the Chinese government no longer 
pressures the U.S. authorities, and instead it indirectly 
uses the pro-China KMT and PFP's majority advantage in the 
Legislative Yuan to paralyze the arms procurement budget 
bill in the Legislative Yuan for the first time, and further 
puts pressure on the governing DPP administration, and 
forces Taiwan's decision-making authorities to deal with 
[problems] from two sides, on the one hand seeking the Pan- 
Blue legislators' understanding to support the passage of 
the arms procurement deal, on the other hand taking pressure 
because of the U.S. government's concerns or 
dissatisfaction.  We think Washington should figure out the 
key to the question, which is that the reason the arms 
procurement budget bill has been boycotted by the Pan-Blue 
legislators several times is not because the DPP 
administration, led by President Chen Shui-bian, is 
intentionally shifting the responsibility for Taiwan 
national defense, but it is because the Chinese government 
intentionally usurps Taiwan's two pro-China political 
parties to delay the review procedure for the arms 
procurement budget bill. 
 
"We think the KMT party headquarters cannot neglect the 
symbolic meaning of the letter co-signed by 33 U.S 
congressmen to [KMT Chairman] Lien Chan, [because the letter 
means that] the U.S. Congress has become aware of the fact 
that Lien Chan plays an important role in the continuous 
boycott process of the arms procurement budget bill; unless 
the KMT never becomes Taiwan's governing party, otherwise it 
will never be possible for a political party which 
disregards Taiwan's national defense to such a degree to 
gain the U.S. government's trust and support." 
 
C) "Be Aware Of China's Use of Cover to Peacefully Annex 
Taiwan" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 800,000] 
editorialized (5/31): 
 
". China has used Taiwan as an excuse for its military 
buildup.  As China's economy picks up, its capability of 
military expansion grows significantly.  Under the cover of 
`peaceful rise,' the real situation is that China is moving 
to become a military giant.  China thinks of itself as 
Asia's economic powerhouse [and is thus] qualified to become 
the leader in the region.  The strong U.S. military 
presence, meanwhile, is viewed by China as the biggest enemy 
for its annexation of Taiwan and taking the leadership of 
all of Asia. Therefore, China has aggressively sought to 
break the First Island Chain and to squeeze the U.S. zone in 
the West Pacific.  It is widely known that Chinese 
submarines have breached the First Island Chain several 
times during their operations." 
 
"Now, leaders of the Pan-Blue camp are rushing to Beijing to 
establish so-called communication platforms, while the long- 
delayed military procurement budget is still stranded in the 
procedural committee of the Legislative Yuan.  We are 
concerned that with opposition parties blocking the budget 
and cooperating with the Beijing authorities, China only has 
to use some trick such as pretending it plans to remove 
missiles, [whereby] it can [then] peacefully annex Taiwan 
without firing a missile." 
 
PAAL