US embassy cable - 05PARIS3727

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 003727 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA; 
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA 
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR 
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; 
ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - EU REFERENDUM - FRANCE VOTES 
`NO' PARIS - TUESDAY, MAY 31, 2005 
 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
EU REFERENDUM - FRANCE VOTES `NO' 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
FRANCE'S OVERWHELMING `NO' VOTE TO THE EU REFERENDUM PROVOKES 
AN OVERWHELMING NUMBER OF COMMENTARIES IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY'S 
PRESS, OVERSHADOWING OTHER STORIES. THE THEMES DEVELOPED IN 
TODAY'S HEADLINES AND COMMENTARIES CAN BE CLASSIFIED INTO 
THREE CATEGORIES: THE POLITICAL CLASS IS IN SHOCK; PRESIDENT 
CHIRAC IS SANCTIONED; HOW TO ANSWER THE FRENCH PEOPLE'S CRY 
FOR HELP, NAMELY REGARDING UNEMPLOYMENT AND DWINDLING BUYING 
POWER. THIS LAST QUESTION IS CLOSELY LINKED TO TODAY'S NUMBER 
ONE QUESTION: WHO WILL PRESIDENT CHIRAC CHOOSE AS HIS NEXT 
PRIME MINISTER? SEVERAL NAMES ARE BEING CIRCULATED: INTERIOR 
MINISTER DE VILLEPIN, UMP PRESIDENT SARKOZY AND DEFENSE 
MINISTER ALLIOT-MARIE. PRIME MINISTER RAFFARIN RESIGNED THIS 
MORNING, AND PRESIDENT CHIRAC IS SCHEDULED TO ADDRESS THE 
NATION THIS EVENING AFTER THE NEW CABINET OF MINISTERS IS 
REVEALED. (SEE PART C) 
 
HERE BELOW A SAMPLE OF TODAY'S HEADLINES ILLUSTRATING FRANCE'S 
POLITICAL CRISIS. 
 
"CHIRAC'S CHOICE FOR PRIME MINISTER: HIS LAST TRUMP CARD" (LA 
TRIBUNE). 
"WHO FOR MATIGNON?" (FRANCE SOIR) 
"CHIRAC TO CHOOSE THIS MORNING" LE PARISIEN 
"THE REASONS BEHIND THE `NO'" (LIBERATION) 
"CHIRAC DISAVOWED, EUROPE DESTABILIZED" (LE MONDE) 
"CHIRAC SEARCHING FOR THE ANSWER" (LE FIGARO) 
"WOUNDED, CHIRAC LOOKING FOR THE RIGHT ANSWER" (LES ECHOS) 
"STUNNED, EUROPE WANTS TO DEAL WITH THE SHOCK" (LA CROIX) 
"AFTER THE SHOCK OF THE `NO', HOW TO HANG ON" (WEEKLY 
L'EXPRESS) 
"STATE OF SHOCK: REJECTION OF POLITICAL AUTHORITY; ELITES 
DISAVOWED; EUROPE SANCTIONED" (WEEKLY LE NOUVEL OBSERVATEUR) 
 
SEVERAL STORIES REPORT ON INTERNATIONAL REACTIONS TO FRANCE'S 
VOTE, MAINLY THROUGH QUOTES FROM THE FOREIGN PRESS. IN POPULAR 
RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE PARISIEN, THOMAS CATALOUBE TITLES HIS 
REPORT: "AMERICA'S IRONIC RESPONSE." "IN THE U.S. THE FRENCH 
VOTE WAS RECEIVED WITH A SHRUG OF INCOMPREHENSION. THE FACT IS 
THAT AMERICANS HAVE NEVER REALLY UNDERSTOOD THE DIFFICULTIES 
LYING BEHIND EUROPE'S CONSTRUCTION. FOR THEM EUROPE IS ALREADY 
A REALITY. THE AMERICANS ALSO CANNOT UNDERSTAND THE FRENCH 
REJECTION OF LIBERALISM, FOR THE SIMPLE REASON THAT FOR THEM 
THERE IS NO OTHER VIABLE SYSTEM. MOST U.S. COMMENTATORS NOTED 
WITH SARCASM THE HUMILIATION SUFFERED BY CHIRAC, WHO IS STILL 
NOT VERY MUCH APPRECIATED IN THE U.S." 
 
IN ECONOMIC NEWS THE U.S. DECISION TO REFER THE AIRBUS SUBSIDY 
ISSUE TO THE WTO IS REPORTED. IN LE FIGARO ECONOMIE A SMALL 
ITEM COMMENTS: "THE PROPOSAL BY AIRBUS IS MORE DETAILED BUT 
REMAINS THE SAME AS THE ONE ALREADY REJECTED BY THE U.S." 
CHINA'S STANCE ON TEXTILE EXPORTS IS REPORTED AS BECOMING 
HARSHER, IN SPITE OF PREVIOUS SIGNS TO THE CONTRARY. ON FRANCE 
2 TELEVISION THIS MORNING AS WELL AS IN FRANCE SOIR AND LE 
PARISIEN, CHINA'S "REVERSAL" IS LINKED TO FRANCE'S REJECTION 
OF THE EU CONSTITUTION. "WITH EUROPE'S DIVISIONS, CHINA 
CHOOSES TO TAKE A HARSHER STANCE," COMMENTS FRANCE SOIR, WHICH 
ADDS NEVERTHELESS THAT "EUROPE IS NOT THE ONLY ONE TARGETED. 
THE U.S. IS ALSO AFFECTED." FOR LE PARISIEN, "CHINA'S NEW 
POSITION IS NOT GOING TO HELP FRANCE, WHICH HAS BEEN 
NEGOTIATING FOR SAFEGUARDS FROM BRUSSELS. CHINA'S NEW HARSHER 
POLICY COMBINED WITH THE VICTORY OF THE `NO' VOTE ON THE EU 
CONSTITUTION WILL WEAKEN FRANCE'S POSITION." THE DECISION TO 
LOCATE ITER IN FRANCE IS ALSO DISCUSSED IN CONNECTION TO THE 
VOTE ON THE REFERENDUM. FOR RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO "FRANCE 
CONTINUES TO BE AN INTEGRAL PART OF THE EU AND THE `NO' VOTE 
WILL NOT IMPACT ON THE DECISION." 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
EU REFERENDUM - FRANCE VOTES `NO' 
 
"THE IMPASSE" 
LEFT-OF-CENTER LE MONDE IN ITS EDITORIAL (05/31): "FRANCE'S 
`NO' IS NO ACCIDENT. THROUGH A REJECTION OF THE TREATY A 
MAJORITY OF THE FRENCH IS SAYING IT DOES NOT WANT OR NO LONGER 
WANTS EUROPE. SO MUCH SO THAT IT TOOK THE RISK OF WEAKENING 
FRANCE'S POSITION. THIS VOTE WAS ORGANIZED BY A MAN WHO MAY GO 
DOWN IN HISTORY AS A SORT OF DR. STRANGELOVE OF POLITICS, WHO 
USED OR MISUSED AGAINST HIS OWN INTERESTS THE DISSOLUTION OF 
THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY AND THE REFERENDUM. EUROPE IS A FRAGILE 
CONSTRUCTION WHICH, WE MAY SOON LEARN, IS ALSO REVERSIBLE. BUT 
THE VICTORY OF THE `NO' IS THE VICTORY OF A PROTEST VOTE, WITH 
AT ITS CENTER THE INSUFFERABLE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. WHICH OTHER 
COUNTRIES SUCH AS THE UK AND SCANDINAVIAN COUNTRIES HAVE BEEN 
ABLE TO BRING DOWN. THE LEFT COULD WELL BE PARALYZED BY ITS 
OWN INTERNAL DIVISIONS. THE RIGHT IS STRENGTHENED BY THE FACT 
THAT 80 PERCENT OF ITS ELECTORATE VOTED `YES.' CHIRAC HAS NOT 
PUT HIS MANDATE IN THE BALLOT. THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY MAJORITY 
IS NOT THREATENED. IT IS THEREFORE UNREALISTIC TO CALL FOR HIS 
RESIGNATION. BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS: WHAT IS THE POLITICAL 
ANSWER TO THE `NO' EXPRESSED BY A MAJORITY OF THE FRENCH? 
HOWEVER ONE WANTS TO INTERPRET THIS WAVE OF PROTEST, IT MEANS 
THAT THE FRENCH SYSTEM, WHETHER EXCEPTION OR MODEL, JUST DOES 
NOT WORK." 
 
"THE ROOTS OF THE `NO'" 
ALEXIS BEZET IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (05/31): "THE EASY 
ANSWER WOULD BE FOR CHIRAC TO REACT TO THOSE WHO SUGGEST THE 
SOCIALISTS' CALL FOR A `NO' VOTE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE 
VICTORY OF THE `NO' AND TO SHIFT HIS POLICY TOWARDS LESS 
LIBERALISM AND A MORE SOCIAL MODEL. BUT THIS WOULD MEAN 
IGNORING THE MANY REASONS BEHIND THE `NO' VOTE, INCLUDING FEAR 
OF TOO MUCH LIBERALISM AND OF TURKEY. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT 
CLUE IS THAT BEHIND EVERY VOTER WHO VOTED `NO' LIES HIS FEAR 
OF UNEMPLOYMENT. IF THIS PROVES TO BE `THE' REASON, THE 
SOLUTION WILL BE UP TO THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER. OUR COUNTRY IS 
IN A CRISIS AND THE `NO' VOTE WILL GIVE WINGS TO MOST UNIONS. 
RAFFARIN'S SUCCESSOR WILL HAVE TO FIND A MIDDLE ROAD BETWEEN 
FACILITATING LIBERAL INITIATIVES AND SOLIDARITY. IMPOSSIBLE? 
MAYBE, BUT NECESSARY." 
 
"LOST ILLUSIONS" 
SERGE JULY IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (05/31): "FRANCE 
SUFFERS FROM RECORD UNEMPLOYMENT AND RECORD TAXES. THE TRUTH 
IS THAT FRANCE'S POLITICAL CLASS IS STUMPED AND THAT 
GOVERNMENTS COME AND GO. THE POLITICIANS' ABILITY IS IN 
QUESTION. AND MEDIOCRITY HAS SURFACED. FOR OVER TWENTY YEARS, 
IF NOT THIRTY, THE EASY WAY OUT HAS BEEN TO MAINTAIN THE 
STATUS QUO, TO STRENGTHEN LOBBIES AND UNIONS AND TO OPERATE 
ONLY MARGINAL CHANGES, WHICH ARE IMPOSED RATHER THAN DECIDED. 
THE `NO' VOTE LOOKS LIKE A PROTECTIVE REACTION AGAINST SOCIAL, 
URBAN AND GLOBAL INSECURITY. BUT THOSE WHO VOTED `NO' HAVE 
JUST DISARMED US. AND THOSE WHO THINK EUROPE WILL GIVE US 
ANOTHER CHANCE WILL BE HARSHLY DISILLUSIONED." 
 
"THE WEAK LINK" 
BRUNOT FRAPPAT IN CATHOLIC LA CROIX (05/31): "OF ALL THE 
REASONS RAISED TO EXPLAIN THE VICTORY OF THE `NO' NONE CAN 
EXPLAIN ITS MAGNITUDE, EXCEPT UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE LEITMOTIF 
OF: `IT'S EUROPE'S FAULT.' THERE ARE A MILLION REASONS BEHIND 
THE `NO' VOTE AND NO SINGLE POLITICAL PARTY CAN CLAIM 
RESPONSIBILITY FOR ITS VICTORY. TODAY, IS EUROPE BETTER OFF 
THAN FRANCE? THE WEAK LINK UNAVOIDABLY WEAKENS THE ENTIRE 
CHAIN. THE SCAFFOLD OF EUROPE'S CONSTRUCTION HAS FALLEN. WE 
MUST PICK IT UP AND GIVE BACK TO EUROPE ITS ORIGINAL GRANDEUR. 
OTHERWISE, WHY BUILD IT?" 
 
"THE PRICE OF THE `NO' 
ALEXIS BEZET IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (05/31): "CHIRAC HAS 
LOST HIS WAGER. HIS AUTHORITY OVER HIS OWN PARTY WILL BE 
DIMINISHED. A THIRD TERM FOR CHIRAC IS HIGHLY IMPROBABLE. WHO 
WILL BE THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER? ALREADY INSIDE POLITICAL 
BATTLES ARE EMERGING. THE PARADOX WOULD BE IF, AFTER THIS VOTE 
WHICH THE GOVERNING MAJORITY HAS INDEED LOST, BUT WHICH HAS RE- 
ENFORCED ITS UNITY IN FACE OF THE SOCIALIST PARTY'S DIVISIONS, 
PARTISAN QUARRELS WERE TO LEAD TO THE LOSS OF THIS ADVANTAGE. 
IT WOULD MEAN PAYING TWICE FOR THE LOSS TO THE `NO'." WOLFF