US embassy cable - 05NDJAMENA863

C O N F I D E N T I A L  NDJAMENA 000863 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/05 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, CD, Political Stability, Human RIghts 
SUBJECT: LIFTING TERM LIMITS: REFERENDUM APPROACHES, 
CHARGES OF MANIPULATION 
 
REF: NDJAMENA 384 
 
Classified By: Political/Economic Officer Kathleen FitzGibbon for reaso 
ns 1. 4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (SBU)  Summary: The public referendum on proposed 
constitutional amendments will be held June 6, and 
allegations of manipulation and irregularities abound. 
Opposition parties and private radio stations have filed 
court cases regarding flaws in the registration process, the 
electoral list, and government restrictions on radio 
broadcasts.  The Supreme Court struck down a government 
ruling preventing radio broadcasts of political debates which 
the High Council for Communications is choosing to ignore. 
Other allegations of government manipulation are emerging, 
including intimidation tactics, bribery, and circulation of 
blank and re-usable registration cards.  Opposition leaders 
do not anticipate any election-related violence and have 
called for a general stay-at-home strike on the day of the 
referendum.  Any violence that occurs will likely be 
spontaneous outbreaks by disgruntled students.  End Summary. 
 
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WHAT'S AT STAKE? 
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2.  (C)  On June 6, registered Chadian voters will vote "oui" 
or "non" for several Constitutional amendments. The most 
important of which is the removal of presidential term 
limits.  The non-existent Senate will be abolished and 
replaced with a Social and Economic Council, which will 
advise the President on key policy issues.  The three day 
voting period for the nomads begins on June 3.  The ruling 
Movement for Patriotic Salvation (MPS) central and 
neighborhood headquarters are adorned with MPS flags and 
signs promoting a "yes" vote.  Most opposition parties are 
advising their supporters to boycott the referendum and 
observe a "ville morte" (i.e. a stay-at-home strike) on June 
6.  P/E officer met with party leaders Lol Mahamat Choua, 
Ibni Omar Saleh, and Saliu Ngarba, all of whom indicated that 
they have instructed their supporters to avoid any 
confrontations and to stay home.  Interestingly, each of them 
indicated that if there is to be any trouble, it would likely 
be spontaneous, coming from university students or would be 
the result of a government provocation.  Choua and Saleh 
advised that official U.S. participation in the Government's 
observer team would make the USG complicit in a completely 
fraudulent exercise. 
 
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PROBLEMATIC REGISTRATION PROCESS AND ELECTORAL LIST 
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3.  (C)  The opposition charges that an analysis of the 
Government's published numbers for registration demonstrates 
significant irregularities.  During a visit to Moundou and 
Sahr in early March, the then-Governor of Sahr Damyo and 
Deputy Governor of Moundou Lucas showed P/E officer and P/E 
assistant the Government's tallies of the number of Chadians 
registered by administrative district.  Both officials were 
surprised, particularly that more voters were registered in 
the northern and eastern parts of the country than elsewhere 
in the country.  According to the Independent Electoral 
Commission (CENI), the country's population increased from 6 
million in 1993 to 9.3 million in 2005.  CENI registered 4.9 
million voters.  According to Saliu Ngarba, only 45 percent 
of Chadians are over 18 and eligible to vote so it is not 
possible to register 5 million out of 9 million people. 
 
4.  (C) The challenged numbers also come from the sparsely 
populated and logistically-challenging northern parts of Chad 
such as the B.E.T., where 92 percent of the potential voters 
were registered, Biltine, (71 percent) and Kanem (73 
percent).  Two more densely populated southern states, Logone 
Occidental and Logone Oriental each showed only a 39 percent 
of the population registered.  Other southern states, 
including Logone Occidental, Logone Oriental, Tandjile, Moyen 
Kebbi, and Moyen Chari all showed decreases in the numbers of 
persons registered from two to 13 percent.  Part of the 
explanation for the decreased numbers of registered voters in 
the south is the door-to-door registration process and calls 
by some opposition leaders to their southern constituents not 
to register.  However, even Lucas maintained that the 
differences between the north and south are glaring, but 
 
 
predictable because it is difficult to verify the lists in 
the northern part of the country.  Both he and Damyo were 
concerned about fraud and the nomadic vote because nomads 
were allowed to register in one district but vote elsewhere, 
depending on where they are located on the days prior to the 
referendum. 
 
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HUSHING THE INDEPENDENT MEDIA 
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5.  (SBU) On May 4, the High Commission for Communications 
(HCC) issued an order prohibiting private radio stations from 
broadcasting political debate concerning the referendum.  The 
HCC also stated that it would use a list of the 74 political 
parties for the public service broadcasting of their 
messages.  For example, each party would get a chance to 
broadcast on the radio and television three times during the 
campaign period.  Three minutes on the radio and two minutes 
on the television.  The parties messages must be registered 
well in advance of their broadcast in the presence of a 
member of the HCC.  Any message to be carried in a language 
other that French and Arabic must be reviewed by the HCC 48 
hours in advance.  The independent media took the case to 
court and on May 25, the Supreme Court suspended the HCC's 
prohibition.  However, on May 27, HCC Chairman Moussa Dago 
announced that the court decision did not affect the HCC 
regulation that radio stations operated by community and 
private associations cannot broadcast political messages. 
The lawyer from the union of private radio station claimed 
that Dago is confusing radio stations run by community and 
private associations with private commercial radio stations. 
Ibni Omar Saleh, leader of the Party for Freedom and 
Development (PLD), praised the Court's decision, but said 
that in practice it is not important because the referendum 
is only a week away and private radio stations have 
effectively been silenced for the majority of the campaign 
period. 
 
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OTHER ALLEGATIONS 
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6.  (C)  Other charges of ruling party and government 
manipulation are evident in the streets of N'Djamena. 
Several different sources, including an army officer, are 
reporting that members of the Presidential Guard have been 
given police uniforms and have been deployed throughout 
N'Djamena, particularly at the major traffic circles. 
Members of the Deby family, including his wives and children, 
have been seen giving "small gifts" to residents in various 
neighborhoods.  In meetings with government officials, 
traditional leaders, particularly in the east, have 
reportedly been told to "get out the yes vote" of their 
people.  Neighborhood chiefs have been given blank 
registration cards that can reportedly be used more than 
once.  Finally, opposition deputies in the National Assembly 
and other opposition leaders are bringing a new court case 
alleging that there are discrepancies between the amendments 
the body voted on and what is being presented to the public. 
 
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COMMENT 
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7.  (C)  Most N'Djamena residents believe that the outcome of 
the referendum is already a done deal.  For this reason, the 
majority of the opposition has not mounted a concerted "no" 
campaign and is instead calling for a general stay-at-home 
strike.  Given the opposition's non-militant position, we 
expect widespread apathy on June 6, with only MPS supporters 
going to the polls.  Nonetheless, the Government appears 
prepared to clamp down on any trouble that could arise.  We 
will be seeing the President of the CENI this week to respond 
to a formal invitation to participate on an official 
monitoring mission. 
WALL 
 
 
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