US embassy cable - 05RIYADH3517

C O N F I D E N T I A L RIYADH 003517 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, SA 
SUBJECT: KING FAHD HEALTH CRISIS UPDATE 
 
Classified By: Ambassador James Oberwetter, reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
 1. (C) Summary: As of Saturday, May 28, King Fahd remains in 
King Faisal Specialist Hospital, undergoing unspecified 
"medical tests," according to statements released by the 
Saudi press agency and sourced to the Royal Court and 
"official sources."  The mood in Riyadh is quiet and normal, 
although Embassy contacts report an undercurrent of 
nervousness among the general population.  There are some 
signs of heightened security measures, including helicopter 
overflights, but nothing consistent with earlier press 
reports of a "state of emergency." We will continue to 
monitor the situation closely as it evolves.  End Summary. 
 
 2.  (U) According to the Saudi Press Agency (SPA), King Fahd 
bin Abd al-Aziz remains hospitalized.  A statement issued by 
the Royal Court and reported by SPA May 27 said that the king 
had been admitted to the King Faisal Specialist Hospital for 
unspecified tests.  SPA reported today that the tests are 
proceeding normally and the king is doing well. 
 
 3.  (C) Emboffs and Embassy contacts in Riyadh report that 
the situation in the city is essentially normal.  There have 
been a few signs of heightened security measures, including 
helicopter overflights, but nothing consistent with earlier 
press reports of a "state of emergency." 
 
 4.  (C) Nevertheless, Embassy contacts report an 
undercurrent of nervousness among the general population. 
This is understandable in view of the Kingdom's demographics. 
 King Fahd ascended to the throne in 1982 after his brother 
King Khalid died of a heart attack.  Since the median age of 
the Saudi population is just over 21 years, more than half 
the country's citizens were born during Fahd's 23-year reign, 
and he is the only king they have ever known.  Even though he 
withdrew from running the government following a stroke in 
1995, leaving his half brother Crown Prince Abdullah as the 
Kingdom's de facto ruler, Fahd has been an omnipresent 
element in the lives of the Kingdom's inhabitants.  His face 
is on the money and his official portrait hangs in countless 
government offices.  Popular uncertainty probably accounts 
for the fact that the Saudi stock market declined by 5 
percent this week once rumors began to circulate that the 
king's health was deteriorating. 
 
 5.  (C) Embassy contacts report that all or most of the 
senior princes are present in Riyadh.  Should the King die in 
the near future, it will be a relatively simple matter to 
convene a family council, if indeed this has not happened 
already.  We expect that the Al Saud family leadership would 
confirm Crown Prince Abdullah as King and Prince Sultan, 
currently Defense Minister, as Crown Prince and First Deputy 
Prime Minister.  At this point, the big question would seem 
to be who would become Second Deputy Prime Minister and thus 
Crown Prince in waiting.  Speculation centers around Prince 
Nayif bin Abd al-Aziz, currently Minister of Interior. 
However, Prince Abd al-Rahman, currently the Vice Minister of 
Defense and Aviation, and Prince Salman, Governor of Riyadh, 
are also seen as candidates for the Second Deputy Prime 
Minister spot.  Of course, Al Saud family politics are 
notoriously opaque to outsiders, and even prominent non-royal 
Saudis admit that surprises are always possible where the 
royal family is concerned. 
 
 6.  (C) We will continue to monitor the situation and report 
further as it evolves. 
 
 
Oberwetter