US embassy cable - 05OTTAWA1607

C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 001607 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2009 
TAGS: CA, ET, PREL, KDEM, PGOV, PHUM 
SUBJECT: CANADIAN REACTIONS TO ETHIOPIAN POST-ELECTION 
PERIOD 
 
REF: SECSTATE 99185 
 
Classified By: POLMINCOUNS Brian Flora, reasons 1.4 (b) (d) 
 
1. (C) POLMINCOUNS and POLOFF met May 27 with FAC Deputy 
Director for Southern and Eastern Africa Stephen Moran and 
Ethiopia Desk Officer Curtis Ajmani, to discuss post-election 
Ethiopia and Sudan.  On Sudan, Moran mentioned that Canada 
has set up an interagency task force comprised of individuals 
from CIDA, DND, FAC, and 2 Senators that would be a kind of 
coordinating body for Canadian assistance and an advisory 
body for the PMO.  The Task Force is located away from the 
FAC building, and is led by Ambassador Fowler.  He said they 
were still not sure what precise form Canada's aid would take 
on the ground but noted that the AU force really needs 
vehicles, radios, even basic infantry equipment to boost 
their capabilities.  Moran dismissed the recent public debate 
about whether or not Canada should engage with robust ground 
force as not particularly well informed.  Their working 
scenario all along has been to support the AU troops on the 
ground logistically. 
 
2. (C) Ajmani suggested that the basic issue with regards to 
the Ethiopian elections is that after a very good turnout, 
and reasonably fair balloting, all sides came out of the vote 
claiming victory.  Canada applauds and supports efforts by 
the EU, US, and others to encourage dispute resolution 
through the Election Board, but has held off making public 
comments on the electoral process until the results are 
announced and it becomes clearer how the various parties 
conduct themselves.  He understands there was to be re-voting 
in some places this past weekend  and believes the vote is 
delayed in the Somali region until August.  Almost all of the 
urban-based ministers lost their seats and much depends on 
whether or not the opposition receives 1/3 of the total 
seats, which would give them veto power over major 
legislation.  To date statements by the government and the 
opposition parties have been relatively moderate, and the 
longer the quiet holds, the better the chances for a 
peaceful, democratic outcome. 
 
3. (C) There is also concern with regards to how the 
inexperienced opposition will govern the cities it has won. 
As the June 8 date for the announcement of election results 
approaches, Moran said that Canada would support an extension 
of the mandate for the Carter Center and the EU election 
monitoring group.  The foreign monitors and center have done 
a very good job to date of validating the process and their 
continued presence adds credibility to the process in the 
post-election period as alleged irregularities are sorted 
out.  Ajmani said that Canada's Ambassador in Ethiopia is 
also in touch with the opposition and believes they would be 
susceptible to outside influence if it becomes necessary. 
They are not, he said, all politically naive, and he believes 
they are aware of Ethiopia's heavy reliance on foreign aid. 
Ethiopia continues to be a major recipient of Canadian aid, 
and is one of it strategic partners for aid.  Canada was the 
fourth largest donor in the elections. 
 
Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa 
 
DICKSON