US embassy cable - 05ABUJA880

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000880 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2015 
TAGS: PREL, CM, NI 
SUBJECT: WHAT NEXT ON BAKASSI?  IS THE UN STILL IN THE 
PICTURE? 
 
REF: A. YAOUNDE 889 
 
     B. 04 ABUJA 1804 
     C. ABUJA 237 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for Reasons 1.4 (B & D). 
 
1. (C) From Embassy Abuja's perspective, it seems UNSGSR Ould 
Abdullah's efforts to bring Nigeria and Cameroon to closure 
on Bakassi may be in trouble.  As we have long reported (Ref 
B and before), the GON is only President Obasanjo on Bakassi, 
and Obasanjo has often said that he and President Biya would 
work out implementation of the ICJ decision, including 
Bakassi, and the maritime border past the "Point G" end of 
the ICJ verdict.  UNSYG Annan's Special Representative Ould 
Abdallah has been coordinating the "Mixed Commission" where 
less contentious implementation of northern portions of the 
ICJ decision has been hammered out, and has been shuttling 
between Obasanjo and Biya.  But Annan's summit with Biya and 
Obasanjo in Geneva May 11 appears to have produced nothing, 
and we understand from Embassy Yaounde and the French Embassy 
here that Biya is angry with Ould Abdallah. 
 
2. (C) We understand from various sources that the next Mixed 
Commission meeting is being put off from June until at least 
August.  The Mixed Commission is not where Bakassi would be 
decided unless Biya and Obasanjo both wished it so, but 
putting off the Mixed Commission meeting does symbolize the 
impasse.  It is unclear whether postponement was Cameroon's 
idea, angry with Ould Abdallah, or whether it was the GON 
arguing (as it often has) that nothing on the border can be 
done during the rainy season -- i.e. until October.  It does 
not matter much which.  Obasanjo and Biya are both entrenched 
in their positions, nothing will be decided inside the Mixed 
Commission until Obasanjo and Biya agree outside it, and Ould 
Abdallah seems unable to find any third options on Bakassi 
that Biya will accept (Ref A). 
 
3. (C) The French Embassy here in Abuja told us two 
interesting things May 27.  First, that Ould Abdallah accuses 
Nigerian head of delegation Bola Ajibola and Cameroonian head 
of delegation Amadou Ali of being time-servers prolonging 
negotiations to keep their paychecks, much the way (the 
French say) that Ould Abdallah is accused of stringing out 
the process to keep his job and perks.  Second, that the GOF 
apparently did not raise Bakassi with Obasanjo during his 
four-day official visit to France May 24-27.  Debt relief, 
UNSC seat, Togo, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigerians immigrating to 
Europe, Darfur -- all yes.  Bakassi no.  The British High 
Commission told us earlier that Bakassi had not been raised 
during Obasanjo's recent visit to London either. 
 
4. (C) The French Embassy told us France is not overly 
concerned with continuing stalemate so long as both sides are 
talking, because Cameroon was unlikely to go to war with 
Nigeria and would only hurt itself bringing the issue to the 
UNSC.  But France was concerned if Biya's anger at Ould 
Abdallah put the Mixed Commission's continuance in jeopardy. 
France did not mind the next Mixed Commission meeting being 
put off, perhaps as late as September, but it did want the 
process between Nigeria and Cameroon to continue. 
CAMPBELL