US embassy cable - 05ANKARA3035

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 003035 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2020 
TAGS: OVIP, PREL, PINR, TU 
SUBJECT: AMERICAN-TURKISH COUNCIL BRINGS DEFENSE/SECURITY 
HEAVYWEIGHTS TO WASHINGTON 
 
REF: ANKARA 2911 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Eric S. Edelman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary:  MOD Gonul, DCHOD Basbug and NSC SecGen 
Alpogan will all be in Washington June 5-7 for the American 
Turkish Council's annual conference.  (It is possible that 
Alpogan may postpone his visit due to the heavy traffic of 
Turkish visitors that week.)  While we understand many 
officials in Washington are appropriately focusing on the 
visits of PM Erdogan and FM Gul in this same time period 
(septel), the three security/defense officials will need to 
hear messages that are consistent with one another and with 
those Erdogan and Gul will receive on the state of the 
relationship and the necessary Turkish steps to put it back 
on an even keel.  With Gonul, Basbug and Alpogan, expressions 
of appreciation for their public words and Turkey's support 
for us in Iraq and Afghanistan would also be appropriate. 
End Summary. 
 
-------------- 
The Principals 
-------------- 
 
2. (C) The American-Turkish Council (ATC) annual conference, 
June 5-7 this year, will bring several senior GOT defense and 
security officials to Washington at the same time Prime 
Minister Erdogan and Foreign Minister Gul are there.  They 
are: 
 
-- Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul:  Gonul is one of the few 
consistent supporters of a strong U.S.-Turkish relationship 
within the Turkish cabinet.  He has spoken out publicly in 
support of our bilateral relationship, recently staging a 
press conference with the Ambassador to mark the conclusion 
of an agreement with the USG on upgrading Turkey's F-16 fleet 
to underscore an example of positive bilateral cooperation. 
Unfortunately, Gonul is not a heavyweight in the ruling 
Justice and Development Party (AKP) or on Turkey's defense 
policy.  The Ministry of National Defense that he heads is an 
agency that handles the GOT's defense budget, personnel 
matters and major procurements.  Even on procurements, his 
influence is limited as the military develops requirements 
and the Undersecretariat of Defense Industries (SSM) 
negotiates contracts.  While SSM reports to Gonul, its 
current head, Undersecretary Murad Bayar (who is also 
attending the ATC), is close to Gul, who brought him back 
from the U.S. to head SSM.  Without a policy role on defense 
matters, significant decisions are worked out between TGS and 
government agencies, or between CHOD General Hilmi Ozkok and 
PM Erdogan directly.  Yet, as MOD and as one of the few AKP 
members the military can work with, Gonul can act as a bridge 
between the two.  We understand that the Turkish Embassy is 
seeking an appropriate appointment in the Pentagon for him. 
If this does not work out, we would urge senior USG officials 
attending the ATC, particularly those from DOD, to seek him 
out for a brief exchange. 
 
-- NSC Secretary General Yigit Alpogan:  Alpogan is the first 
civilian secretary general of the National Security Council 
in that institution's history.  A former ambassador to Greece 
and deputy undersecretary of foreign affairs -- and a staunch 
secularist -- Alpogan is an accomplished diplomat who is 
trying to carve out a role for himself and his institution 
after EU-mandated reforms downgraded the military's role and 
stripped the NSC of its previous authority.  (NOTE: We 
understand some in the Turkish military now view the NSC 
merely as a disaster coordination center.  END NOTE.)  He has 
brought in a number of MFA officials and new civilian 
analysts in an effort to build up an independent policy 
analysis capability.  Unlike his somewhat reclusive 4-star 
predecessors, Alpogan is out on the diplomatic circuit in 
Ankara, and his trips this month to Israel and next month to 
Washington are unprecedented for a NSC secgen.  He has also 
spoken publicly in support of the US-Turkey relationship.  As 
he has fewer policy axes to grind than other bureaucratic 
players in Ankara, we believe the USG should encourage and 
support Alpogan's institution-building efforts.  At the same 
time we need to remain realistic about how far he will be 
able to take the NSC as an institution given the 
organization's new designation as a policy advisory body. 
 
-- Deputy Chief of the Turkish General Staff (TGS) Ilker 
Basbug:  Basbug has been at the forefront of TGS's efforts to 
move beyond the 2003 disappointments on March 1 (Parliament's 
failure to grant passage of our troops) and July 4 (our 
arrest of Turkish Special Forces personnel in Suleymania). 
His January 26, 2005 press conference in which he succinctly 
emphasized the breadth and importance of the Turkish-American 
relationship set the standard for subsequent statements by 
the military, the bureaucracy and the government which 
stemmed the tide of rising anti-Americanism here.  Basbug has 
a realpolitik view of the world, emphasizing shared interests 
more than shared values as the basis for international 
cooperation.  He is proud of the good relations he has 
cultivated with his principal American counterparts, VCJCS 
Gen Pace and EUCOM DCDR Gen Wald.  He is expected to leave 
Ankara this August to become commander of the 1st Army in 
Istanbul, an essential step towards becoming head of the TGS 
-- a position most observers believe he will receive in 2008. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Common Themes: Bilateral Relations, 
Appreciation for Cooperation 
----------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Since the beginning of the year, each of these three 
has spoken out in support of our bilateral relationship with 
greater conviction and sincerity than we have seen from 
Erdogan and Gul.  While this may change the way we address 
the three, it will be important that they leave Washington 
with the same understanding of the state of the relationship 
that the two AKP leaders receive.  Thus, USG interlocutors 
should express appreciation for the positive statements these 
three have made and their impact on stemming the slide of 
public support in Turkey for bilateral cooperation.  But our 
message must also underscore that consistent and insistent 
GOT moves to rebuild and maintain public support for the 
relationship are essential if we are to have the productive 
partnership both governments desire.  This will require 
continuous efforts on the part of both capitals. 
 
4. (C) Our message on the relationship will carry more weight 
if we acknowledge the valuable cooperation we currently 
receive from Turkey, without making our interlocutors think 
that Turkey is indispensable.  Words of thanks would be 
appropriate for the use of Incirlik for tanker aircraft and 
the logistics hub that should begin operations June 1, for 
orchestrating a positive visit by Iraqi Interim Prime 
Minister Ja'afari, for organizing a PSI exercise in May 2006, 
and for taking on the command of ISAF for a second time. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Specific Subjects:  Iraq, EU, Military 
Modernization, BMENAI 
-------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Some issues to address with these interlocutors might 
include: 
 
-- Iraq:  Iraq dominates our bilateral agenda.  Our 
operations there remain highly unpopular with the Turkish 
public and our will to see the process we started to its 
conclusion is doubted by many within the bureaucracy and 
military.  While Basbug has access to information on 
developments from liaison officers with CENTCOM and MNFI, 
Alpogan will likely be decidedly less well informed. 
Nonetheless, both will be intently interested in the latest 
developments in Iraq and our strategy to effect a stable, 
united, prosperous Iraq.  Kirkuk and ongoing operations in 
Talafar and Mosul will be of particular interest.  The 
continued presence of the PKK/Kongra Gel in northern Iraq and 
persistent reports of increased PKK attacks in Turkey will 
also be on their minds.  It will be important especially in 
Basbug's meeting with VCJCS Gen Pace that the two address 
this issue (see septel/notal).  Turkey continues to reach out 
to various political groups in Iraq, offering training to 
political parties; encourages trade and other business ties 
despite the security risks; and is increasing its engagement 
with Iraqi authorities in Baghdad as demonstrated by 
Ja'afari's May 19-21 visit.  The ITG has indicated that it 
will send ISF personnel to a training course in Turkey, which 
may be the ice breaker required for Ankara to send trainers 
to Iraq as part of the NATO Training Mission.  We recommend 
that Washington officials express appreciation for Turkey's 
support of the ITG and the development of democracy in Iraq. 
(Note:  Ankara's attitude toward our Iraq policy showed 
significant improvement after the results of the January 30 
elections were announced.)  At the same time, officials 
should encourage faster disbursement of the $50 million in 
development assistance Turkey has pledged and forgiveness of 
Iraq's outstanding $1.6 billion debt to Turkey along the 
lines of the Paris agreement. 
 
-- EU:  The sudden appointment of State Minister Ali Babacan 
as EU negotiator after months of policy drift was likely 
motivated by fear about anti-Turkish drift in France and the 
Netherlands and political developments in Germany and their 
likely impact on Turkey's EU accession process.  In fact, 
developments in Europe and the slippage in the GOT's reform 
efforts and standards since December 17 cast new questions 
about the GOT's intentions and Turkey's chances for 
membership.  A significant number of military leaders have 
been skeptical about the EU's willingness to accept Turkey 
and worried about damage to the secular nature of republic by 
EU-mandated reforms.  It will be important, therefore, to 
encourage Basbug and even Alpogan and Gonul to stay with the 
process.  We should also offer the US's continued assistance 
and support with the EU, but we should be clear that Turkey 
must take the lead; we should support Turkey's initiatives 
and not act as Turkey's proxy. 
-- Military Modernization/Transformation:  More with Gonul 
and Basbug than Alpogan, USG officials should emphasize the 
need that we move forward with military modernization and 
transformation in a way that ensures we have the 
interoperability necessary to operate effectively together. 
The "Peace Eagle" AEW&C aircraft procurement from Boeing and 
the "Peace Onyx" government-to-government brokered F-16 
upgrade programs are good examples to follow.  However, the 
recent RFP for attack helicopters, containing provisions that 
could effectively exclude American competitors, raised 
questions about whether the Turkish procurement agency, which 
falls under Gonul's authority, remains interested in working 
with us.  Although the RFP was recently revised after Boeing 
laid out a long list of concerns, company representatives are 
skeptical that the changes were sufficient to permit the 
company to bid.  Beyond the terms and conditions of this 
specific RFP, Turkey has developed a reputation among 
American defense companies as one of the most difficult 
customers in the world, with procurement officials constantly 
looking to squeeze more out of companies, even after 
contracts are signed, and with decisions influenced by 
politics and offsets more than capabilities and value.  As a 
result, three companies have closed their local offices and 
others may follow suit. 
 
--  BMENAI:  With Alpogan, a discussion of the Broader Middle 
East and North Africa Initiative along the lines we suggest 
for PM Erdogan and FM Gul (septel) would be useful.  It would 
be useful to note to Alpogan that the most cogent and 
positive Turkish analysis of BMENAI and the benefits of 
Turkish participation came not from the government but from 
CHOD Ozkok's April 20 nationally-televised address (reftel). 
EDELMAN