US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI2337

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002337 
 
SIPDIS 
 
WASHINGTON PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TW 
SUBJECT: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SET TO APPROVE CONSTITUTIONAL 
 
REFORMS 
 
REF: 2004 TAIPEI 2662 
 
Classified By: AIT Deputy Director David J. Keegan, Reason 1.4 b 
 
1.  (C) Summary.  The National Assembly (NA) will convene in 
Taipei on May 30 to consider a package of constitutional 
reforms that leaders in both the DPP and KMT hope will 
encourage development of a two-party political system and 
discourage radical amendments to the constitution.  The high 
ratification threshold of 75 percent, however, has added an 
aura of uncertainty to the NA, with concern that some of the 
83 percent of NA delegates elected in support of the reforms 
might not honor their pledge and, thus, defeat the reforms. 
Fearing retribution from DPP elder Lin Yi-hsiung and worried 
that the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) would not, or could not, 
enforce discipline, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party 
(DPP) frantically -- and unsuccessfully -- tried to alter the 
ratification threshold from 75 to 50 percent earlier this 
week.  KMT leaders, however, insist their delegates will vote 
for the constitutional revisions, which would ensure passage 
of the package.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (U) The ad hoc NA will begin meeting on Monday, March 30, 
to deliberate on a package of constitutional revisions passed 
by the Legislative Yuan (LY) last August (Ref A).  The NA is 
"ad hoc" (renwuxing) because it is charged with one task -- 
voting yes or no on the package -- before dissolving itself 
permanently and leaving Taiwan with a unicameral legislature, 
the LY.  Although the NA has a maximum of 30 days to meet, 
most delegates and analysts expect the actual ratification 
process to be completed quickly, perhaps in one or two days, 
after the plenary session commences June 9. 
 
A Question of Party Discipline 
------------------------------ 
 
3.  (C) With 83.1% of NA delegates elected from political 
parties supporting ratification of the constitutional 
revisions, the outstanding question is whether the 
pro-revision political parties, particularly DPP and KMT 
which together won 244, or 80 percent, of the 300 NA seats, 
can impose party discipline on their delegates.  DPP SecGen 
Su Tseng-chang publicly pledged that all DPP delegates will 
vote for the constitutional revision package as they had been 
entrusted to do. 
 
4.  (C) The DPP supported passage of an NA Procedural Law on 
May 20 that imposed a 75 percent ratification threshold, but 
it developed second thoughts over the weekend.  Deputy SecGen 
Yan Wan-ching told AIT that his party became concerned over 
the possibility of a substantial number of "vote runners" 
(paopiao), delegates breaking ranks with their party and 
abstaining or opposing the revision package.  This, he 
hastened to add, will not be a problem for the DPP, which 
will maintain strong party discipline with few if any 
dissenters.  The KMT, he grimaced, is another story, and DPP 
is not at all confident KMT party discipline will hold. 
Because of this concern, President Chen and the DPP sought to 
revise the Procedural Law, lowering the ratification 
threshold from 75 to 50 percent.  An equally compelling 
reason for this last minute switch was DPP fear of criticism 
by its former chairman Lin Yi-hsiung that a 75 percent bar 
was non-constitutional.  Lin suggested President Chen should 
be recalled unless he was able to lower the ratification 
threshold to 50 percent.  The unorthodox move, however 
failed, and ratification remains at 75 percent. 
 
5.  (C) The KMT, for its part, insists that its support for 
the constitutional revision package is solid.  When KMT NA 
delegate Chu Chun-yuan told the media on May 24 that he might 
vote against the reform package, KMT leaders rushed to 
reassure the public that the KMT will honor its NA election 
pledge.  The next day, KMT Chairman Lien Chan announced that 
all 117 KMT delegates will vote for the constitutional reform 
package, and other senior party officials stated the party 
will expel any delegates who vote against the package and 
replace them in the NA.  The same day, Chu Chun-yuan himself 
wrote a letter to the KMT leadership pledging that he will 
cooperate in full with the KMT in the NA.  Taoyuan County 
Magistrate Eric Chu told the AIT Deputy Director on May 27 
that all KMT delegates will vote for the revisions, 
dismissing the possibility of any KMT member not voting along 
party lines.  Chu said he is convinced the constitutional 
reforms will be ratified quickly and without any problems. 
He stressed that the KMT believes that these reforms will 
force the PFP to return to the KMT, which is an important 
party objective. 
 
Comment:  Likely Impact of the Reforms 
-------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) The proposed reform package will halve the number of 
LY seats, create a single-member district electoral system, 
provide for an island-wide referendum on future 
constitutional amendments, and permanently dissolve the NA. 
Most LY members, political analysts, and NA delegates with 
whom AIT has discussed the constitutional reform package 
since last August agree on two probable effects of the 
revisions.  First, the single-member district electoral 
system will encourage evolution into a two-party political 
system, probably under the two major parties, DPP and KMT. 
Second, the referendum will raise the bar for ratification of 
constitutional amendments by adding an additional step 
requiring a majority of all eligible voters to approve future 
constitutional amendments.  By marginalizing small, often 
more radical, political parties and by raising the bar on 
constitutional amendments, the constitutional reform package 
up for consideration by the NA should reinforce moderate 
elements in the Taiwan political system and moderation in 
cross-Strait relation.  While President Chen has announced 
that this "first stage" of constitutional reform will be 
followed by a "second stage," he has been careful to specify 
that future reforms will focus on government efficiency and 
bringing the half century-old constitution up to date.  He 
has also said that constitutional reforms will only be 
possible if they are broadly supported.  DPP leaders 
responsible for constitutional reform have assured AIT they 
are aware that both Beijing and Washington are closely 
watching the constitutional reform process.  They pledge to 
proceed cautiously and responsibly in order not to arouse 
concern, and to keep AIT informed as plans for future 
constitutional reform take shape. 
PAAL