US embassy cable - 90ABUDHABI536

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABU DHABI 00536 
 
E. O. 12356:  DECL:  OADR 
TAGS:  PREL, PGOV, US, IR, TC 
SUBJECT:  SULTAN:  BULLISH ON RAFSANJANI AND BEARISH 
          ON ZAYED 
 
1.  (S - ENTIRE TEXT) 
 
2.  SUMMARY:  SHEIKH SULTAN OF SHARJAH WAS, AS USUAL, 
BULLISH ABOUT RAFSANJANI'S MODERATIONS AND CONTROL OF 
EVENTS IN TEHRAN AND CLAIMED THAT THE REAL WILD CARD 
WHICH RAFSANJANI FEARED WAS THE BAZARRIS, NOT THE 
RADICAL CLERGY.  SULTAN SAID THAT AT UK REQUEST HE HAD 
BEEN WORKING TO WIN RELEASE OF TERRY WAITE, BUT THAT 
EACH TIME HE MADE PROGRESS, SOMETHING LIKE THE RUSHDIE 
AFFAIR INTERVENED.  CLOSER TO HOME, SULTAN CRITICIZED 
ZAYYED FOR HIS HARSH PUBLIC COMMENTS ABOUT THE UNITED 
STATES AND SAID THAT HE, SULTAN, WOULD TAKE UT UP WITH 
ZAYYED.  WE DOUBT THAT ZAYYED WILL BE AMUSED.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
3.  DURING AMBASSADOR'S INITIAL COURTESY CALL 
JANUARY 23 ON SHARJAH RULER, SHEIKH SULTAN BIN 
MOHAMED AL-QASSIMI, SHEIKH SULTAN REVEALED THAT HE 
HAD RECENTLY MET WITH ALI SHAMS-ARDAKANI, FORMER 
IRANIAN AMBASSADOR TO KUWAIT AND PRESENTLY DEPUTY 
MINISTER OF MINES AND METALS.  SULTAN TOLD AMBASSADOR 
AND ACCOMPANYING CONSUL GENERAL LIMBERT THAT 
ARDAKANI SAID PRESIDENT HASHEMI-RAFSANJANI AND A 
SMALL GROUP OF ALLIES, INCLUDING FOREIGN MINISTER 
VELAYATI, DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER BESHARATI, AND 
IRAN'S AMBASSADOR TO THE UAE HADI NAJAFABADI 
WERE ALL WORKING TO IMPROVE IRAN'S RELATIONS WITH 
ITS NEIGHBORS, WITH THE WEST, AND EVENTUALLY WITH THE 
UNITED STATES.  ACCORDING TO SHAMS-ARDAKANI, THE 
PRESIDENT WAS MOST WORRIED BY OPPOSITION FROM WITHIN 
THE BAZARR.  HE KNEW FROM PERSONAL EXPERIENCE HOW THE 
BAZARRIS COULD TIP THE BALANCE OF POWER.  MOHTASHEMI- 
POUR AND HIS ALLIES IN PARLIAMENT WERE LESS WORRI- 
SOME, BUT BAZARRIS HAD POWER TO DISRUPT THE IRANIAN 
ECONOMY AND DISCREDIT HASHEMI'S GOVERNMENT. 
 
4.  AMBASSADOR SAID THAT HOPEFUL WORDS FROM 
TEHRAN HAD YET TO BE MATCHED WITH ANY HELPFUL MOVES 
ON THE ISSUE OF HOSTAGES IN LEBANON.  SUCH MOVES 
WERE ESSENTIAL BEFORE THE U.S. COULD CONSIDER TAKING 
A MORE POSITIVE STANCE TOWARD TEHRAN.  SULTAN NOTED 
THAT HE HAD TRIED ACTING AS AN INTERMEDIARY TO 
ARRANGE FREEDOM OF BRITISH HOSTAGE, TERRY WAITE, BUT 
EVERY TIME HE MADE ANY PROGRESS, SOMETHING SUCH AS 
THE SALMAN RUSHDIE AFFAIR, WOULD FRUSTRATE HIS EFFORTS. 
SULTAN FELT, HOWEVER, THAT TIME WAS AGAIN RIPE FOR 
YET ANOTHER EFFORT AND IMPLIED THAT THE DEAL FOR 
WAITE WHICH HE HAD BEEN DISCUSSING WOULD INVOLVE 
PAYMENTS.  HE GAVE NO INDICATION THAT U.K. WAS 
CONDONING PAYMENTS OR WHERE FUNDS MIGHT COME FROM. 
HE WAS NOT IN DOUBT AS TO U.S. POLICY IN THIS REGARD. 
 
5.  SWITCHING SUBJECTS, SULTAN SAID HE THOUGHT 
ZAYYED SHOULD NOT HAVE AIRED HIS FEELINGS ABOUT 
THE U.S. IN PUBLIC.  IF HE HAD SUCH STRONG FEELINGS 
ON THE PALESTINIAN ISSUE, HE SHOULD HAVE VOICED THEM IN 
PRIVATE CHANNELS  EITHER IN WRITTEN OR ORAL COMMU- 
NICATION.  AMBASSADOR REPLIED THAT PERHAPS ZAYYED'S 
REMARKS INDICATE HOW STRONGLY HE FEELS ABOUT THE 
ISSUE.  NEVERTHELESS, SUCH STATEMENTS ARE NOT 
HELPFUL AND DO NOT ACCURATELY REFLECT THE RELATIONSHIP. 
 
6. SULTAN SAID THAT HIS WIFE HAD BEEN PRESSING HIM 
TO TAKE THIS QUESTION UP WITH ZAYYED.  HOWEVER, THE 
STRAIN IN RELATIONS WITH ZAYYED HAD PRECLUDED CANDID 
DISCUSSION.  NOW, ACCORDING TO SULTAN, RELATIONS WERE 
BETTER SO HE COULD SPEAK HIS MIND. 
 
7.  COMMENT:  SULTAN WAS BULLISH ON RAFSANJANI'S 
PROSPECTS AND DISMISSED HIS RADICAL OPPOSITION DESPITE 
TWO FAILED ATTEMPTS ON RAFSANJANI'S LIFE.  SULTAN 
HAS CONSISTENTLY OVERESTIMATED RAFSANJANI'S CONTROL 
AS WELL AS, IN OUR VIEW, HIS COMMITMENT TO MODERATION. 
SULTAN SEEMED SINCERE IN HIS COMMITMENT TO HELP THE 
BRITISH, OR US IF WE WANTED, ON THE HOSTAGES, BUT WE 
STRONGLY SUSPECT HE OVERPLAYS HIS ACCESS AND INFLUENCE. 
AS FOR HIS COMMENTS ON ZAYYED, SULTAN MAY THINK ALL IS 
WELL NOW IN THEIR RELATIONSHIP, BUT IF HE STARTS 
GIVING GRATUITOUS ADVICE AGAIN, WE DOUBT THAT ZAYYED 
WILL TAKE KINDLY TO IT.  SULTAN MAY HAVE LITTLE CHOICE 
IN THE MATTER, HOWEVER, IF, AS HE IMPLIES, HIS WIFE 
IS SET ON BEARDING ZAYYED FOR HIS UNDIPLOMATIC BEHAVIOR. 
 
 
WALKER