US embassy cable - 05HARARE741

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000741 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR U/S BURNS, AF A/S NEWMAN/DAS WOODS 
OVP FOR NULAND 
NSC FOR ABRAMS, COURVILLE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, ZI, MDC 
SUBJECT: MDC HEAD ON GROWING UNREST; WASHINGTON  TRIP 
 
REF: HARARE 737 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell under Section 1.4 b/d 
 
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Summary 
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1.  MDC Head Morgan Tsvangirai met with the Ambassador May 27 
to discuss the growing unrest in the country.  Tsvangirai 
said the GOZ seemed to be trying to provoke a response that 
it could crush but may have miscalculated given the numbers 
of people involved and their desperation.  He said the 
opposition, including civil society leaders, had met that 
morning to discuss how to help organize the discontent so 
that it could be sustained over time and lead to real change. 
 Tsvangirai said that despite the unrest he was still 
interested in visiting Washington the latter half of June, 
with the exact date depending on the Secretary,s 
availability.  End Summary. 
 
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Operation Create Disorder 
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2. (C) Tsvangirai said the only logical explanation for the 
GOZ,s recent actions (reftel) was to provoke a response that 
it could then crush.  Otherwise, &Operation Restore Order8 
made no sense, either politically or economically.  He said 
it would inevitably provoke such a reaction.  The government 
had never before been more hated nor relied so overtly on 
naked force to maintain its control.  As with commercial 
farmers and other targets, Mugabe had defined the urban 
informal economy as a source of opposition and he was 
determined to crush it.  However, this time there were more 
people involved and they were more desperate, with no other 
options; he was sowing the seeds of civil unrest. 
 
3. (C) The Ambassador said it was his experience that when 
people,s survival mechanisms were threatened, as in this 
case, civil unrest could erupt quickly.  The opposition 
needed to ensure that unrest was led soberly.  Tsvangirai 
agreed completely, noting that while anger was building, it 
needed to be expressed in a sustainable fashion, not simply 
erupt spontaneously.  Tsvangirai noted that the people had 
erupted in street protests only once in recent years, the 
1998 food riots.  The Zimbabwean people needed to be 
organized and led and to that end he had met that morning 
with leaders of civil society to coordinate on how best to 
encourage and harness the growing discontent. 
 
4. (C) Tsvangirai added that the opposition must avoid 
falling into one of Mugabe,s traps.  The MDC and its allies 
needed to help organize democratic resistance but needed to 
avoid the spotlight.  There would be no public statements 
that would allow the regime to paint protesters as pro-MDC 
and give it an excuse for the crackdown.  He asked if there 
had been any response from Washington on the MDC,s request 
for support to channel civil discontent.  The Ambassador said 
the USG was focused on 2008 as the next opportunity for 
change, but would obviously take another look if the current 
crisis worsened. 
 
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MDC Internal Divisions 
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5. (C) Tsvangirai acknowledged that internal MDC tensions had 
led to violence at the party,s headquarters the week before, 
when the senior leadership had been out of the country in 
Mauritius.  He said he had restored order upon his return and 
that an investigation was ongoing.  The senior leadership 
itself was unified.  He suspected the youths who had 
initiated the violence might have been paid to do so by the 
GOZ, but had nonetheless stressed to the party the importance 
of remaining focused on restoring democracy to Zimbabwe, and 
not fighting among themselves. 
 
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Washington Trip 
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6. (C) Tsvangirai said he was open to a trip to Washington 
sometime between June 15 and June 25.  The exact date would 
depend on the Secretary,s availability.  He planned to stop 
in West Africa on his way to the U.S.  However, while the 
trip was important, if the crisis in the country worsened, he 
might have to once more delay it. 
 
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Comment 
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7. (C) We would agree that the GOZ is playing with fire and 
that if it continues its current crackdown on the urban 
informal economy it will provoke civil unrest, possibly on a 
greater scale than any unrest since 1998.  The fact is this 
is playing out against a backdrop of severe food and fuel 
shortages and accelerating economic decline that is already 
sapping the regime,s eroded popularity and further 
undermining its legitimacy.  That said, the GOZ appears ready 
and able to crush discontent, unless it is on a very large 
scale.  And we have seen no signs yet that this is likely, 
nor that the MDC and its allies know how to make it happen. 
DELL