US embassy cable - 05HARARE737

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000737 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR B. NEULING 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2010 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, ZI, Restore Order/Murambatsvina 
SUBJECT: URBAN TENSIONS BOILING OVER 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell under Section 1.4 b/d 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: Clashes between residents and police over 
the high profile destruction of unauthorized structures 
around town and the city's growing failure to deliver 
services have increased political tension in the capital. 
Police presence and roadblocks are markedly increasing, 
including outside the capital.  Some members of the 
opposition MDC are involved in the growing urban resistance 
to the regime, but the activity for the most part seems to be 
spontaneous or directed by citizens groups rather than by the 
MDC leadership.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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Blitz on Informal Sector Sparks Protests 
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2. (U) On May 18, the City commenced "Operation Restore 
Order" - a crackdown against "illegal structures" and the 
informal sector generally.  According to police reports, more 
than 10,000 people have been arrested and hundreds of illegal 
structures - vending stalls and makeshift residences - have 
been demolished through May 26.  While most high profile 
demolitions have been in and around Harare, police reportedly 
have leveled some flea markets in other locations, including 
Bulawayo, Kadoma, Rusape, and Odzi.  In addition, the state 
media reported that police had arrested hundreds of 
additional individuals around the country for illegal gold 
panning and other unauthorized activities.  Various 
government officials publicly attribute the campaign to the 
imperative to stem "economic saboteurs" and purportedly 
growing illegal activities associated with the outdoor 
markets, including everything from forex dealings to rape. 
 
3.  (SBU) In response to the crackdown, protests have broken 
out around Harare over the past week.  In the high density 
areas of Chitungwiza and Mabvuku, protests led to violent 
clashes between police and city residents on May 20.  James 
Gadzirayi, spokesperson of the Combined Harare Residents 
Association (CHRA) told poloff on May 24 that the street 
battles were spontaneous reactions to police demolition 
efforts and not the result of pre-planned resistance. 
 
4.  (SBU) More clashes erupted on May 25 in Glen View, St. 
Mary's, and Budiriro, resulting in reported damage to 
vehicles and buildings, including vandalism of a municipal 
office in Glen View.  There are unconfirmed reports that a 
policeman was killed in one disturbance.  Human rights NGOs 
so far have been unable to confirm any injuries associated 
with the clashes. 
 
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Tafara and Mabvuku Disturbances 
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5.  (C) Street battles on the margins of "Restore Order" 
follow earlier clashes over rising municipal fees and 
non-delivery in low-income areas.  At a meeting with poloff 
on May 18, CHRA representatives offered an update on 
deteriorating conditions in Harare's high-density areas. 
According to the group, some areas have been without water 
for two months, had not had trash removed all year, or were 
increasingly exposed to open raw sewage.  Citizens were 
digging wells in filthy areas, contributing to a growing 
health hazard.  The City rarely, if ever, responded to 
resident complaints.  The group advised that at the same 
time, the City was drastically increasing fees for municipal 
services - services that were rarely if ever delivered.  The 
new fee structures are unaffordable to most residents of 
high-density areas. 
 
6.  (C) After the Revenue Office announced new illegal 
structure fees earlier this month, many residents refused to 
pay.  According to CHRA representatives, a ZANU-PF women's 
group called a meeting on May 10 to address the matter in 
Tafara, a low-income suburb.  No ZANU-PF leaders came and 
when the meeting began to be dominated by CHRA 
representatives, police dispersed the meeting and arrested 
three CHRA members.  A similar event in Mabvuku, another 
high-density suburb was broken up May 11, resulting in 14 
arrests.  Those detained in each case were charged with 
violations of the Public Order and Security Act and released 
within two days. 
 
7.  (C) CHRA sources report that police presence was quickly 
and substantially increased in high-density areas on the 
heels of the Tafara and Mabvuku incidents.  Non-uniformed 
ZANU-PF militia, another growing presence, were harassing - 
and sometimes beating - those perceived to be involved in 
resistance efforts against the city.  In a drive through 
Mabvuku and Tafara on May 25, a holiday, poloff observed 
uniformed police walking among pedestrians on fairly crowded 
streets, but saw no roadblocks in either township or on 
commuter arteries to the city.  Embassy personnel generally 
have noticed a markedly increased police profile and 
proliferation of roadblocks around the country during the 
past few weeks. 
 
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Conditions Deteriorating 
------------------------ 
 
8.  (SBU) Evidence of growing urban hardship is everywhere. 
With the petrol shortage, commuter buses on the road are far 
fewer, leading to large crowds of stranded commuters along 
roadsides and bus stops all over town.  The GOZ compounded 
the problem by recently requiring that bus routes go no 
further than depots on the edge of town, and not into the 
city center.  Business contacts tell us that they are having 
to provide overnight accommodation for employees no longer 
able to commute home reliably.  No longer confined 
principally to high-density areas, growing trash piles and 
water cut-offs have been plaguing Harare's tony suburbs in 
recent months as well. 
 
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Organized Civil Disobedience 
----------------------------- 
 
9.  (C) CHRA representatives told us they are organizing 
boycotts against payment of all municipal charges and are 
planning to clandestinely re-connect water services cut-off 
by the City for non-payment.  The Association was also 
gathering petitions and demonstrating for new mayoral 
elections to replace the ZANU-PF-led commission that has been 
operating since the MDC mayor and council were dismissed last 
year.  The representatives said they are coordinating closely 
with the Zimbabwe Lawyers for Human Rights (ZLHR), the Legal 
Resources Foundation, Amani Trust, the Zimbabwe Community 
Development Trust, and, more recently, an association of 
informal traders impacted by the crackdown.  They noted that 
over the past few months, sympathetic local ZANU-PF members 
and leaders, police, and municipal figures ave been quietly 
collaborating with CHRA, even if they could not be publicly 
supportive.  ZLHR contacts tell us that they are planning to 
file citizens suits against the government over the 
crackdown, but so far have had a hard time locating citizens 
willing to stand as plaintiffs. 
 
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MDC in the Background 
--------------------- 
 
10.  (C) According to CHRA representatives, the MDC has not 
been involved in the planning of any of the citizen 
resistance efforts, although MDC members, including members 
of parliament, have been involved in some of the citizen 
protests and activities.  MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai and 
other party officials have lashed out publicly against the 
crackdown generally, casting it as retribution against urban 
populations for voting against the ruling party.  MDC 
spokesperson Paul Themba Nyathi accused the GOZ of trying to 
provoke strife so it could declare a state of emergency to 
help control public reaction to the collapsing economy.  MDC 
MP for Glen Norah Priscilla Misihairabwa-Mushonga reportedly 
claimed to be weighing legal action on behalf of residents 
against the City. 
 
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Why Now? 
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11.  (C) The timing and justification for the crackdown 
probably stem from several factors.  Constant headline 
coverage in the state media suggests "Restore Order" is meant 
to project GOZ's purported zero tolerance for illegal forex 
trading and the black market for controlled commodities. 
Certainly, it is in keeping with the ruling party's ongoing 
designs to expand its control over the economy and 
symptomatic of its continued failure to reverse the country's 
economic decline.  The crackdown further substantiates the 
GOZ's purported scapegoating of "economic saboteurs" for the 
failure of its economic policies, and seeks to portray the 
GOZ as "doing something." 
 
12.  (C) The MDC claims the crackdown is retribution for 
voting patterns.  This may also be part of the explanation. 
Certainly the fact that the targeted areas are pro-MDC is a 
further spur to the government.  There is also speculation in 
the independent media that the ruling party is interested in 
orienting the nation's population away from increasingly 
restive urban centers to rural areas, which are much easier 
to manipulate and control.  According to official media 
reports, most arrested in Harare are being processed at a 
farm outside of Harare and reportedly are being pressed to 
return to their rural homes if they have no authorized 
business or residence in Harare.  ZLHR contacts report that 
none have been forcibly relocated, however, and most are 
charged with minor offenses and released after payment of a 
fine. 
 
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Comment 
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13.  (C) Does this crackdown - coming so quickly on the heels 
of another stolen election and compounding the suffering of a 
nation reeling from GOZ economic mismanagement - tip the 
country closer to change?  With the exception of food riots 
in 1998, growing privation in the past has provoked more 
emigration and creative adaptation than real impetus for 
change.  However, many local observers note that economic 
conditions have never been this bad.  Whether the GOZ follows 
through in its public commitment to enforce its draconian new 
zero tolerance approach may prove to be a pivotal factor. 
The crackdown comes in the wake of growing shortages, 
including most staples, and the GOZ's approach seems 
deliberately designed to deprive the urban population of its 
coping and survival mechanisms. 
 
14.  (C) This has led to speculation that the regime is 
intentionally driving people to the edge to provoke a 
confrontation that will allow it to unleash its still 
disciplined police force, which is capable of violence when 
the regime feels it necessary.  At this point there does not 
appear to be an organization effectively channeling public 
anger into pressure for political change.   Unless a 
responsible leadership emerges, the prospects of increasingly 
radical mob activity will grow, and with it the likelihood of 
uncontrolled violence. 
 
DELL