US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI3932

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003932 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2015 
TAGS: ELAB, PGOV, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: NDA CALLS FOR STRIKES TO PROTEST DISSOLUTION OF 
BIHAR ASSEMBLY 
 
REF: CALCUTTA 206 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff R. Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: A strike called by the opposition NDA for 
May 24-25 to protest the government's dissolution of the 
Bihar Assembly and to demand the removal of Bihar Governor 
Buta Singh drew a limited response.  Clearly not impressed 
with the strike, the UPA reiterated its support for the 
Governor and claimed that dissolution was necessary in light 
of NDA attempts to "buy legislators."  State elections will 
likely be held in October/November, with Laloo Prasad Yadav's 
RJD in a good position to win.  End Summary. 
 
Background 
---------- 
 
2.  (U) The NDA called for state-wide strikes in Bihar on May 
24-25 to protest the UPA government's dissolution of the 
Bihar Assembly (reftel) and to demand the recall of Bihar 
Governor Buta Singh.  The NDA claimed that the UPA dissolved 
the Legislative Assembly to prevent it from taking power, on 
the grounds that Congress has a history of manipulating state 
governments when it fails to win a majority.  The NDA accused 
Singh of acting as a "UPA agent" rather than an "objective 
arbiter."  In Bihar, the strikes received support from some 
Independent, LJP, and RJD MLAs.  In Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, 
the BJP also held demonstrations outside its Party 
headquarters. 
 
3.  (U) Press reports suggested a weak response to the strike 
call in Bihar.  With the state currently under President's 
Rule, the UPA deployed heavy security to head off the 
strikes, and arrested over 1,500 people, including senior NDA 
leaders.  Despite train service disruption in a few areas, 
railway and vehicular traffic was close to normal, although 
many shops and businesses closed their doors.  In contrast to 
previous strikes in Bihar, violence was minimal and 
surprisingly less than expected. 
 
Congress Remains Adamant 
------------------------ 
 
4.  (U) The strikes were intended to demonstrate anti-UPA and 
anti-Laloo sentiment, but they were not widely observed.  The 
UPA shows no sign of giving in to pressure to remove the 
Governor.  The PM stated that dissolution of the assembly was 
a necessity because of "horse-trading."  National Rural 
Development Minister Raghuvansh Prasad Singh alleged that the 
NDA was offering bribes of up to 30 million Rupees (USD 
700,000) to LJP legislators willing to defect. 
 
5.  (U) Despite low observance, the NDA insisted that the 
strikes were successful and that they demonstrated that the 
people of Bihar are angry and frustrated with Governor Singh 
and the UPA.  A senior BJP state leader told ConGen Calcutta 
of his belief that the UPA will do badly in the upcoming 
election, as there is a growing divide between the state's 
two major politicians, Paswan and Laloo. 
 
6.  (U) The NDA also announced its intention to stage a large 
rally in Patna on June 5 to demand the recall of Governor 
Singh.  State BJP President Gopal Narayan Singh went so far 
as to compare the current situation in Bihar to the infamous 
Emergency of the 1970s.  He later announced that NDA 
consitutents BJP and JD(U) would hold a massive rally in 
Patna on June 25 as a day of protest against the UPA's 
"conspiracy" to dissolve the Bihar Assembly.  The state NDA 
chose this date for the rally because it coincides with the 
30th anniversary of the imposition of the Emergency by then 
PM Indira Gandhi in 1975. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
7.  (C) NDA claims to the contrary, the Bihar strikes were 
not effective.  Congress knows it must unify the UPA in Bihar 
before the new election because disunity cost them the race 
in February.  This will take some time, however, and Congress 
is intent on delaying the election until it has laid the 
necessary groundwork.  The NDA, sensing an opportunity, wants 
to move the election up to July, and make Laloo's poor 
reputation and performance the main issue, although 
revelations of NDA attempts to bribe legislators will not 
convince voters that it is providing a strong alternative to 
UPA corruption.  Our sources predict that Laloo --with 
Congress support-- will likely win the elections if they are 
held in October/November, as expected, although Bihar 
politics are notoriously difficult to predict.  Bihar is 
currently looking like an NDA v. Laloo race.  We may see a 
more individualistic (rather than party) approach to the 
state elections this time around. 
8.  (U) This message was coordinated with Amconsul Calcutta. 
BLAKE