US embassy cable - 05QUEBEC79

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 QUEBEC 000079 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  5/26/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, ECON, CA, Parti Quebecois 
SUBJECT: QUEBEC PQ CONVENTION: SOVEREIGNTISTS LIKELY TO SUPPORT 
LANDRY, CONTINUE WRANGLING 
 
REF: A) OTTAWA 1491; B) QUEBEC 0052 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Abigail Friedman, Consul General, Quebec City, 
State. 
REASON: 1.4 (d) 
 
1. (c) Summary:  Former Quebec Premier and current Parti 
Quebecois (PQ) chief Bernard Landry is widely expected to 
overcome discontent with his leadership within the PQ and win a 
renewed mandate at the Party's Province-wide convention June 
3-5, in Quebec City.  After he lost the Premiership to Jean 
Charest in 2003, many in Quebec considered the 67-year old 
Landry to be "yesterday's man." But public dissatisfaction with 
Premier Charest and polls showing a rise in public support for 
independence have muted infighting within the PQ, at least for 
the short term.  Last week's stunning failure in Ottawa of 
Conservative Party and Bloc Quebecois efforts to bring down the 
Martin government (ref a) stands as a sober reminder to the PQ 
that nothing in politics can be taken for granted, and that the 
real challenge for the PQ is to win the next provincial election 
(likely in 2007 or as late as Spring 2008).  The timing of the 
next referendum on Quebec independence will be much debated at 
the PQ convention, but without a PQ victory in 2007/8, any talk 
of a "third" referendum is moot.  Given this, the PQ's choice of 
Landry, who lost once before to Charest in 2003, may come back 
to haunt the party. End summary. 
 
2.  (u) Two subjects are likely to dominate the 15th PQ 
convention in Quebec City, June 3-5: (1) a "vote of confidence" 
in the continued leadership of PQ leader Bernard Landry and (2) 
discussion of how to realize the PQ goal of Quebec independence, 
the "raison d'etre" of the party.  Other subjects on the menu 
include promoting Quebec's identity, language and culture; 
meeting the demographic challenge; the role of the State in 
economic development; globalization; and the environment. 
 
Landry's Leadership 
------------------------ 
 
3.  (c) Rather than electing its leader at regular intervals, PQ 
party executives appoint a leader who is at some point blessed 
by a vote of confidence by party militants.  Most PQ leaders to 
date have never faced leadership races:  Rene Levesque, Jacques 
Parizeau and Lucien Bouchard were chosen by acclamation.  Only 
Pierre-Marc Johnson, who succeeded Levesque in 1985, faced a 
leadership race, winning close to 60 percent of the vote. 
Bernard Landry became PQ leader (and Premier) in 2001, when 
then-Premier Lucien Bouchard stepped down, in anger over the 
maneuverings of radical sovereigntists within his party.  Landry 
lost in the subsequent provincial election, in April 2003, to 
Liberal (PLQ) leader Jean Charest.  Following that defeat, many 
within the PQ and among the public questioned Landry's continued 
PQ leadership.  He was seen as "yesterday's man" and it seemed 
only a matter of time before he would move on.  Landry himself 
did little to rebut this perception.  By the summer of 2004, 
Landry (a widower) had a new wife, a new life and, according to 
several of our contacts, seemed weary of politics.  A number of 
PQ challengers sprang up, including former PQ finance minister 
Pauline Marois and the young, business-savvy Francois Legault. 
 
4. (u) Pauline Marois took the most direct approach in 
challenging Landry.  Arguing that the PQ needed to become more 
democratic, she campaigned last fall throughout the province for 
a leadership race at the June 2005 convention.  Legault, for his 
part, sought to make his mark by preparing a "Year One" budget 
that would demonstrate the economic benefits that would accrue 
to the province once it became independent. 
 
5. (c) By April of 2005, both of these challenges had petered 
out -- a combination of smooth political maneuvering by Landry 
and outside events working in his favor.  The Charest 
government's clumsy handling of a number of provincial 
portfolios and talk of trimming back public benefits translated 
into record high disapproval ratings for his government -- 78 
percent, according to a Leger Marketing poll released April 11. 
That poll also showed that only 21 percent of Quebeckers would 
vote for the PLQ if an election were held at that time, 28 
percent would vote for Mario Dumont's ADQ party, and 47 percent 
would chose the PQ.   (Reftel b.)  When added to the mix, the 
Gomery Commission's daily fare of federal Liberal Party 
corruption was enough to translate into rising support for 
Quebec independence -- 54 percent, according to a mid-April 
Leger marketing poll.  PQ militants, not wanting to do anything 
to upset what appeared to be a fortuitous alignment of the 
stars, fell in behind their leader.  Pauline Marois dropped her 
bid for the leadership of the PQ, while Landry made the 
strategic move of backing Legault's Year One budget, turning it 
into a party-wide effort. 
 
6. (c) As a result, no one is expecting a serious challenge to 
Landry at the June PQ convention.  Instead, focus has shifted to 
the percentage of support Landry will garner on the vote of 
confidence.  Estimates we have heard from PQ members and others 
are in the 75-85 percent range.  Historically, the 80 percent 
threshold has significance within the PQ.  Former Premier Lucien 
Bouchard threatened to quit in November 1996, offended that he 
had received only 76.7 percent    If Landry gets over 80 
percent, the conclusion is likely to be that the party has 
understood the importance at this historical juncture of falling 
behind its leader.  If Landry gets below that, it will be read 
as only qualified support for his leadership. 
 
The Referendum Dilemma 
--------------------------- 
 
7.  (c) As Laval University political scientist Rejean Pelletier 
recently summarized to CG, "The PQ is a party of militants, 
dedicated to a single cause: Quebec independence."  (This 
contrasts with Quebec voters, many of whom vote for the PQ for 
reasons that have nothing to do with independence.)  The PQ has 
always been plagued by infighting between "hard core" militants 
who want to press forward as quickly as possible toward 
independence, and those who are willing to entertain a "go slow" 
approach that would give the party time to build popular support 
for Quebec independence.  Every PQ leader, including Landry, 
must wend his way through this minefield, risking the accusation 
of being either too soft or too forceful on Quebec independence. 
 
8.  (c) Internal PQ differences over how to achieve Quebec 
independence play out over the question of an independence 
referendum.  Simply put, the PQ has a "chicken and egg" problem. 
 To attain sovereignty, the PQ must get elected.  But to get 
elected, the PQ cannot be too radically sovereigntist, as not 
all Quebeckers who vote for the PQ are ready to support 
independence.  A referendum offers the way out, as it promises 
voters that they can vote for the PQ and decide on the 
independence question later, in the course of a referendum. 
Last year, "hard core" PQ theorists, including PQ leader Jacques 
Parizeau, frustrated by two failed referendum attempts, proposed 
that the PQ dispense with a referendum altogether and take acts 
toward independence (e.g., creation of a Quebec constitution) 
immediately after winning an election.  A referendum might then 
be held at a later time to confirm these acts, after the fact. 
But this approach is a minority view.  Most PQ militants 
recognize that it would be difficult for the PQ to win an 
election with this in its platform. 
 
9.  (c) Consequently, the discussion expected at the June 
convention is on the timing of a possible referendum.  At the 
far end of the "soft" spectrum is the idea of holding a 
referendum when "winning conditions" are at hand.  Other 
approaches that have surfaced include a commitment to hold a 
referendum "within the first 100 days," "within the first 
mandate," or "within the first year" of a PQ government.  Landry 
-- who in the words of one astute observer "has his heart to the 
left and his head to the right" -- has managed over the past 
year to take a number of different positions, stating at times 
that he would support a referendum when the conditions are ripe, 
or by 2008, or by 2011.  Landry will want to come out of the 
June convention with as much room to maneuver on this issue as 
possible. 
 
Back to Basics: Winning Elections 
---------------------------------- 
 
10. (c) Comment:  The failure of Conservative Party-Bloc 
Quebecois efforts to bring down PM Martin's government last week 
has had a sobering effect on PQ political calculations in 
Quebec.  Until last week, there was among our PQ contacts an 
almost palpable sense of victory being at the doorstep.  PQ 
members watched Charest's popularity sag and separatist 
sentiment rise, and needed no more convincing that the next 
provincial election was theirs for the taking.  Charest, it was 
widely noted in the media, might be the first Quebec Premier in 
fifty years not to win a second mandate.  Debate in the press 
and in political circles was moving quickly to the timing of the 
next referendum (which, of course, presumes the PQ is in power). 
 But the remarkable twist of events in Ottawa has brought people 
here back to basics: winning against Charest in the next 
provincial election is the first step, and it remains very much 
in play. 
 
11. (c) Comment (continued): As one politician reminded us 
recently, "in politics, six months is an eternity."  Next 
month's PQ convention will be taking place at least two years 
before the next provincial election.  A lot can happen in those 
two years.  By then, the Gomery commission will have long 
finished its work; the Charest government will have a four-year 
track record by which to be judged; and the PQ will not 
necessarily be able to count on public disgust with the Liberals 
to advance their cause.  If Bernard Landry's mandate is renewed 
next month, then the PQ will at some point down the road have to 
face the question of whether Landry, who lost to Charest in 
2003, is the right man to lead the PQ to victory in 2007/8.  If 
they conclude not, then infighting and efforts to unseat Landry 
are likely to resurface 
 
FRIEDMAN