US embassy cable - 02ROME3564

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 003564 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2012 
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, EAID, ECON, PHUM, IR, IZ, IT, KWAC 
SUBJECT: ITALY ON "FUTURE OF IRAQ" EXPERT WORKING GROUPS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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REF: SECSTATE 130333 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: CLASSIFIED BY: ACTING DCM THOMAS COUNTRYMAN FOR REASONS 
1.5 (B) AND (D) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: THE GOI GENERALLY SUPPORTS OUR "FUTURE OF 
IRAQ" WORKING GROUPS PROPOSAL 
AND IS ESPECIALLY INTERESTED IN THE AREAS OF PUBLIC HEALTH 
AND CULTURAL PRESERVATION. 
WHILE ITALY VERY MUCH WANTS A DIFFERENT IRAQI GOVERNMENT IN 
POWER, IT IS CONCERNED ABOUT 
WHO WILL SUCCEED SADDAM.  IN THE VIEW OF THE ITALIANS, EITHER 
THE ISLAMISTS GAINING POWER 
IN IRAQ OR THE DESTABILIZATION OF THE PERSIAN GULF REGION 
WOULD BE AS BAD AS -- OR WORSE THAN -- 
SADDAM'S CURRENT REGIME.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C) POLOFF DELIVERED REF DEMARCHE TO LUIGI MACCOTTA, THE 
MFA'S OFFICE 
DIRECTOR FOR THE PERSIAN GULF AND ROGUE STATES, AND EMANUELE 
FARRUGIA, 
DEPUTY OFFICE DIRECTOR AND DESK OFFICER FOR IRAQ.  ON THE 
PRIORITIES OF THE WORKING 
GROUPS, FARRUGIA SUGGESTED THAT THE FOREIGN AND NATIONAL 
SECURITY POLICY GROUP 
COME FIRST TO ALLOW THE UNCONDITIONAL RETURN OF UN WEAPONS 
INSPECTORS.  ON 
ITALY'S CONTRIBUTION TO THE IRAQI PEOPLE, FARRUGIA EXPLAINED 
THAT THE GOI 
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FOCUSES -- AND WILL LIKELY FOCUS -- ITS EFFORTS IN IRAQ ON 
TWO DOMAINS: PUBLIC HEALTH AND CULTURAL 
PRESERVATION.  IT IS NOT EASY TO DEAL WITH THE BUREAUCRATIC 
IRAQI GOVERNMENT 
THAT CONSIDERS ANY NGO PART OF AN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE, 
COMMENTED FARRUGIA. 
THAT SAID, THE ITALIAN EXPERTS IN IRAQ HAVE DEVELOPED GOOD 
CONTACTS IN ORDER TO 
FACILITATE THEIR TASKS. 
 
3. (C) AMONG EU COUNTRIES, ITALY HAS BEEN ONE OF IRAQ'S MOST 
IMPORTANT TRADING 
PARTNERS FOR MANY YEARS.  THIS CHANGED AFTER SEPTEMBER 11. 
ITALY'S EXPORTS TO 
IRAQ FELL FROM 5% TO 1% OF THE OIL FOR FOOD PROGRAM ALLOWANCE 
OVER THE PAST 
YEAR, EXPLAINED FARRUGIA.  THAT WAS THE ECONOMIC PRICE ITALY 
PAID FOR ITS POLITICAL DECISION TO REDUCE OFFICIAL CONTACTS 
WITH IRAQ, WHICH DID NOT TAKE A CLEAR STAND ON TERRORISM, HE 
SAID. 
 
4. (C) FARRUGIA STRESSED THAT A MILITARY ATTACK WOULD NOT BE 
ITALY'S FIRST OPTION FOR 
DEALING WITH SADDAM, DUE IN PART TO CONCERNS ABOUT THE 
STABILITY OF THE REGION. 
ABSENT CAREFUL PLANNING, STRESSED FARRUGIA, THERE IS A REAL 
POSSIBILITY 
FOR THE DESTABILIZATION OF IRAQ AND THE REGION POST-SADDAM. 
THE GOI IS "KEEN 
ON SUPPORTING SECULAR REGIMES, EVEN IF THEY ARE DICTATORIAL 
IN NATURE, OVER 
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ISLAMIC REGIMES."  THAT IS WHY THE GOI IS SUPPORTING THE 
GOVERNMENTS IN TUNISIA 
AND ALGERIA.  IF THE SECULAR SADDAM REGIME FALLS, ARGUED 
FARRUGIA, IRAQ 
RUNS THE RISK OF BECOMING A RADICAL SHIITE SOCIETY.  HE ADDED 
THAT THE IRANIAN 
RELIGIOUS CONSERVATIVES RELY HEAVILY ON THE IRAQIS IN EXILE 
IN IRAN, WHO TEND 
TO BE MOST RADICAL.  AN IRAQ SHIITE STATE REPLACING SADDAM'S 
REGIME COULD 
PRODUCE ANOTHER IRAN AND BLOCK THE WAY OF REFORM, STRESSED 
FARRUGIA. 
 
5. (C) THE KURDISH ISSUE IS SO IMPORTANT THAT IT OUGHT TO 
HAVE ITS OWN WORKING 
GROUP, ARGUED FARRUGIA.  THE KURDS OUGHT TO ENJOY THEIR 
CULTURAL AUTONOMY. 
HOWEVER, THE KURDS COULD PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THE 
STABILIZATION OF A POST-SADDAM 
IRAQ.  THEY ARE USUALLY SUNNIS AND SECULAR, AND THUS COULD 
ENSURE THE 
CONTINUITY OF A SECULAR IRAQ POST-SADDAM, STATED FARRUGIA. 
 
SEMBLER 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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 2002ROME03564 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL