US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI2313

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002313 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Domestic Politics, Foreign Policy, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN TIES 
 
1. Summary:  All the major Chinese-language newspapers 
in Taiwan focused their front-page news coverage May 26 
on local politics, with one significant exception:  the 
pro-independence "Liberty Times," Taiwan's biggest 
daily, reported on the United States and cross-Strait 
relations on its front page May 26.  The "Liberty 
Times" ran the headline on its front page: "United 
States is concerned that [PFP Chairman James] Soong and 
[Chinese President] Hu's `two sides of the Strait, one 
China' [concept] will jeopardize Taiwan."  The sub- 
headline added: "[Presidential Office Secretary- 
General] Yu Shyi-kun was kindly reminded by [U.S. 
officials] during his U.S. trip that [the `two sides of 
the Strait, one China' concept] will easily mislead the 
international community to believe that China has shown 
goodwill gestures [to Taiwan].  Taiwan needs to think 
of a way to address the issue." 
 
2.  All the major Chinese-language Taipei dailies ran 
on their inside pages news stories on the U.S.-Taiwan 
arms deals.  The centrist "China Times" spent almost 
all of its page four reporting on the issue; the news 
stories included U.S. Congressman Robert Andrews' 
remarks Tuesday that, to his knowledge, the United 
States does not have a deadline regarding the U.S. arms 
procurement package to Taiwan; President Chen's call on 
the Taiwan people to support the arms procurement 
package; and the roles of Taiwan's military, the Pan- 
Blue Camp and the Pan-Green Camp behind the arms 
procurement politics.  Taiwan correspondent for the 
"Jane's Defense Weekly," Wendell Minnick, said in a 
commentary in the limited-circulation, pro- 
independence, English-language "Taipei Times" that 
given the weaponry list that Taiwan plans to buy from 
the United States, China will easily defeat Taiwan 
should a war break out in the Taiwan Strait.  The 
limited-circulation, pro-independence, English-language 
"Taiwan News," on the other hand, ignored the arms sale 
issue but urged Washington to sign a free trade 
agreement (FTA) with Taiwan immediately in order to 
thwart China's plan to use FTAs as a platform to 
isolate and boycott Taiwan.  End summary. 
 
A) "Taiwan's Military Will Fire Blanks" 
 
Wendell Minnick, Taiwan correspondent of the "Jane's 
Defense Weekly," commented in the pro-independence, 
English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 30,000] 
(5/25): 
 
"What kind of military busy 150 guns and only 120 
bullets?  Taiwan's military, of course. 
 
"Taiwan's air force has enough munitions to last only 
two days in a war with China. . 
 
"US military sources say Taiwan needs a minimum of 350 
AMRAAMs, 160 Harpoons, 75 Mavericks, and 3,000 
Sidewinders to sustain it long enough for US military 
forces to arrive to help defend Taiwan. 
 
"The minimum amount of time it would take the US to 
respond is five days, but some estimates predict that 
Washington would debate the issue for as long as two 
weeks before committing forces to Taiwan's defense. 
 
"`Why buy only 120 [AMRAAMs]?  How long will those last 
in a war?  Less than a day!  That quantity is not 
operationally useful.  Taiwan has to take their defense 
seriously, instead of just buying hi-tech weapons for 
their leaders' prestige.  They purchase a fire truck 
and don't buy hoses,' one discouraged US defense 
official said. . 
 
"Now China's strategy is to force a quick military and 
political capitulation during timelines that have 
shortened over the past five years.  Taiwan needs a 
viable `force in being.'  There will be no time for an 
emergency delivery of AMRAAMs or Sidewinders.  It would 
be a `come as you are' war. . 
 
".Taiwan also needs additional ALE-50 towed radar 
decoys.  Taiwan has refused to procure an operationally 
useful number of these decoys.  To date they have 
ordered less decoys than would last one full day if a 
war started. 
 
"Taiwan needs two launcher controllers per 150 F-16s 
(300 in total). . Taiwan has purchased less than 5 
percent of that number of decoys, and only 56 of the 
launcher controllers. . A ministry report released last 
year concluded that Taiwan's air force would be 
`destroyed in a few days.' . 
 
"What does all of this mean in a war with China?  China 
will rape Taiwan." 
 
B) "U.S. Should Act to Thwart PRC Move to Isolate 
Taiwan" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" 
[circulation: 20,000] editorialized (5/26): 
 
". [L]urking behind China's passion for signing 
bilateral FTAs [i.e. free trade agreements] is a 
politically motivated plot that cannot be ignored. . 
 
"In fact, the PRC aims to use the legendary attraction 
of the `huge China market' to suck its neighboring 
economies into a bottomless black hole and at the same 
time realize its substantial political strategic 
objective of isolating Taiwan. . 
 
"Given the evident drive by Beijing to use bilateral or 
multilateral FTAs to isolate Taiwan, we urge Washington 
to consider its own fundamental geopolitical strategy 
as well as economic interests and rapidly conclude the 
ongoing talks with Taiwan and sign a bilateral FTA with 
our country. 
 
"Such a breakthrough would open the doors for other 
countries, such as Japan, to sign FTAs with Taiwan and 
thus thwart the PRC's plan to use FTAs as a platform to 
isolate and boycott Taiwan. 
 
"If the U.S. genuinely opposes any unilateral changes 
in the current status quo and balance in the Taiwan 
Strait, it must allow Taiwan to maintain its 
attractiveness as a global and regional trading 
partner. 
 
"Only by ensuring Taiwan's continued economic 
prosperity and vitality can the status quo in the 
Taiwan Strait be stabilized." 
 
PAAL