US embassy cable - 02AMMAN3953

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 003953 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KISL, JO 
SUBJECT: . . . AND NOW ELECTIONS APPEAR LESS LIKELY 
 
REF: A. AMMAN 3273 B. AMMAN 3726 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR EDWARD W. GNEHM FOR REASONS 1.5(B) AND (D) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) As King Abdullah's July 31st visit to Washington 
approaches, the status of elections to reinstate Jordan's 
Parliament remains uncertain, but elections before the spring 
of 2003 seem unlikely.  When we last reported on this topic 
in mid-June, regional tensions had abated somewhat (Ref. A). 
Many Embassy contacts were then predicting that a date for 
holding elections would be announced in July, with elections 
following as early as September.  However, King Abdullah 
stated in late-June that there would be an announcement on 
elections in July, with elections following "within a year." 
As of July 16, with uncertainties looming about what the 
future will bring on the West Bank and in Iraq, Jordanians 
still await the promised announcement.  There is a growing 
sense that the GOJ will not actually commit to a date for 
holding elections and that, if it does, elections will be set 
for sometime next year.  End summary. 
 
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RECENT DEVELOPMENTS (OR THE LACK THEREOF) 
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2. (C) King Abdullah's June 20th announcement that elections 
will be held "within a year" was interpreted by many as 
laying the groundwork for yet another delay of elections 
until mid-2003.  Regional developments are doubtless 
influential, as Jordan finds itself once again squeezed 
between Israel's reoccupation of major cities on the West 
Bank and mounting concerns of an attack on Iraq.  Another 
factor is the more than three-month administrative period 
that must pass between the announcement of an elections date 
and the holding of elections themselves.  Given Jordan's 
place in a region where things can deteriorate much more 
quickly than that, one former parliamentarian says Prime 
Minister Ali Abul Ragheb has personally assured him that no 
date for elections will be announced in July. 
 
3. (C) Speculation that another delay is in store seems born 
out by activities at the Prime Ministry.  In June, officials 
were hard at work preparing provisional laws for ratification 
in advance of an elections announcement.  Now a well-placed 
Prime Ministry contact reports that the Prime Minister has 
relaxed internal deadlines and there is "a sense that time 
remains" to work on laws before a date for elections is 
announced.  The lack of a sitting Parliament has received 
only passing media attention during the last month and by no 
means dominates Jordan's political landscape.  (Note: Former 
parliamentarian Raed Al Bakri, a close personal friend of the 
Prime Minister, attributes this silence to the Abul Ragheb 
government's lack of tolerance for dissent.) 
 
4. (C) During a July 15th meeting focused on other issues, 
Abul Ragheb told the Ambassador the GOJ will launch a public 
relations campaign in August or September, to show Jordanians 
how it is raising living standards through King Abdullah's 
recently announced Social and Economic Transformation Plan 
and other programs in the areas of medicine, education, 
water, and social services.  Abul Ragheb said it would be 
better to defer elections for a few more months, so that the 
P.R. campaign (which will be in full swing by October) can 
take effect and improve public mood in advance of elections. 
 
5. (C) Despite the foregoing, some still believe a date for 
holding elections will be announced later this July.  For 
example, the Jordan Times reported on July 13 that it is 
"almost certain that a date for parliamentary elections will 
be announced this month."  A long-time human rights contact, 
Dr. Fawzi Samhouri, says King Abdullah's credibility will 
take a hit if he does not honor his prior commitment to make 
an announcement on elections during July, although he and 
others also believe the King could honor the letter of this 
commitment by simply making a general announcement without 
fixing a date.  No one we have spoken with still holds to the 
prediction that elections, even if announced in July, will be 
held this year. 
 
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"ALWAYS YOU SHOULD THINK IN A BAD WAY" 
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6. (C) Parliamentarians and human rights contacts alike decry 
the GOJ's failure to schedule a date for elections.  A 
statement issuing from a recent roundtable sponsored by the 
Jordan Society for Citizen Rights -- subscribed to by civil 
society NGOs, journalists, Islamists, ex-ministers, a former 
parliamentarian, and others -- strongly emphasizes the need 
for an elected body in "troubled" times like the present. 
The roundtable, which published its statement in local 
newspapers and a letter to King Abdullah, also found that 
"only democracy, which cannot be deepened or strengthened 
without a sitting Parliament, serves Jordan."  And even the 
Islamic Action Front, which has not yet committed to 
participating in elections, takes the position that elections 
must be held. 
 
7. (C) Though many contacts lament the lack of an elections 
date, some suggest postponement of elections may be 
justified.  The Prime Ministry contact believes "the street" 
understands the GOJ must proceed cautiously in light of the 
regional situation.  Al Bakri goes even further in justifying 
the GOJ's failure to hold elections.  "Always," he says, "you 
should think in a bad way."  According to Al Bakri, difficult 
regional issues (i.e., the West Bank and Iraq), internal 
issues (e.g., Jordan's troubled economy), and the potential 
havoc that could be wreaked if a new Parliament were elected 
now (e.g., the undoing of key provisional laws passed without 
a Parliament during the last year) are "bad" enough to 
warrant scrapping elections for now. 
 
8. (C) Al Bakri and others also fear that elections conducted 
amidst regional crisis could produce a fractured and 
uncooperative Parliament dominated by Islamists, leftists, 
and -- especially if there is an attack on Iraq -- frustrated 
East Bank nationalists.  Nationalists already believe 
Palestinians are a destabilizing force within Jordan, and the 
Iraq issue could fan East Bank-West Bank divisions. 
According to former Prime Minister Taher Al Masri, the rising 
sense of anti-Palestinian nationalism among East Bankers has 
become strong enough that Jordan's intelligence service has 
advised King Abdullah to postpone elections on this ground. 
Al Masri also reported that a group of nationalists from the 
Sahab suburb of Amman told him they would campaign with Osama 
bin Laden posters if elections were held now. 
 
9. (C) Like Al Bakri, Samhouri "think(s) in a bad way," 
albeit a more deeply pessimistic "bad way" that questions the 
GOJ's basic faith in Parliament as an organ of democracy. 
Samhouri notes that the GOJ originally scheduled elections 
for November 2001, and then postponed elections in order to 
implement changes required by a new elections law.  But, 
since this rationale for delay expired months ago when 
changes were implemented, Samhouri interprets new delays as 
evidence that the GOJ "does not really believe in elections, 
or democracy for that matter."  Along these same lines, an 
Embassy press contact expresses the doubts of those who feel 
there can be no justification for postponing elections in 
Jordan when the U.S. has called on Arab states like Jordan to 
help create a working democracy for the Palestinian people 
with elections of its own. 
 
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COMMENT 
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10. (C) Regional uncertainty amply explains, or could 
explain, the GOJ's cautious behavior -- especially given 
heightened concerns that holding parliamentary elections 
might lock in a strong and uncooperative Islamist, leftist, 
and nationalist opposition.  Just incidentally, further 
postponement of elections suggests that the GOJ does not 
place much stock in the results of Jordan University's Center 
for Strategic Studies' recent poll, which has been 
interpreted as showing that Jordanians are reasonable, 
moderate, and realistic in their perspective on regional 
issues (Ref. B).  End comment. 
Gnehm