US embassy cable - 05PARIS3625

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 003625 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, FR, EUN 
SUBJECT: FRANCE'S EU REFERENDUM: "NO" HAS THE MOMENTUM AS 
MAY 29 APPROACHES 
 
REF: PARIS 3492 
 
Classified By: Acting DCM Josiah Rosenblatt for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
. 
 
1.  (C) Summary: When President Chirac addresses a national 
audience May 26 to urge a vote in favor of the EU 
constitution three days later, he may be talking to an 
electorate that has largely made up its mind -- to vote no. 
Opinion polls and many of the country's sharpest political 
commentators agree an opinion shift has occurred over the 
past few days, with the "no" vote developing a gathering 
momentum.  With reports that defenders of the constitution, 
including mayors in daily contact with their grassroots 
constitutents, have stopped campaigning, the dynamic of a 
self-fullfilling prophecy may be in play.  Signs now point to 
a rejection of the draft constitution, for a multiplicity of 
reasons. For the increasingly demoralized "yes" camp, 
Chirac's last effort to defend the text may be too little, 
too late.  End summary. 
 
2.  (C) All ten of the most recent polls have pointed to a 
solidifying lead of no voters.  The latest, on May 25, gives 
a 54-to-46-percent advantage to opponents of the constitution 
(among the 80 percent of the electorate who have decided how 
they will vote).  Reacting to this drumbeat of consistent 
results, and based an almost palpable sense that French 
voters simply want to say "no," most well-informed observers 
and politicos are coming to the same conclusion:  French 
voters will turn down the refendum on May 29.  Over a 
Charge-hosted lunch for visiting NEA PDAS Liz Cheney May 25, 
the talk from an assemblage of some of France's top political 
analysts and columnists was all about the EU constitution. 
Our guests agreed that over the past few days, there has been 
a definite shift towards a consolidation of the "no" vote. 
Dominique Moisi, Deputy Director of the French Institute for 
International Relations (IFRI), told the Charge and PDAS 
Cheney that his May 26 IHT column will call the vote for the 
"no," citing three reasons: retrospective and prospective 
doubts about EU enlargement; a national "malaise," fed in 
particular by high and stubborn unemployment; and, the desire 
to sanction France's distant and out-of-touch political 
elite, with Chirac being the biggest target.  All of those 
present agreed that an ambiant fear of the future, in 
particular the fear of losing jobs to less well-paid workers 
in the new EU member states will be a major generator of a 
"no" vote Sunday. 
 
3.  (C) Just back from visits to Marseille and Bordeaux in 
the south, the Canadian and UK DCMs told the Charge earlier 
May 25 that they, too, sense a clear shift toward rejection 
of the constitution by a majority of voters on May 29 and are 
reporting this back to London and Ottawa.  Moisi noted that 
pro-Constitution mayors in his home region have ceased 
campaigning for the yes, having concluded that the majority 
of their constitutents have made up their minds to vote no. 
Even informal observations at polling places in many cities 
and towns outside Paris (which are plastered with campaign 
posters in the days before the referendum) suggest that 
opponents of the consitution are more active than their 
pro-constitution counterparts.  The cumulative effect of so 
many successive polls pointing to a no victory appears to 
have created a snowball effect that Chirac will have 
difficulty stopping when he makes his last-minute appeal to 
the nation Thursday night. 
 
4.  (C) Turn-out could yet be critical.  It is generally 
thought that a heavy turnout on May 29 will help the yes 
vote.  If the yes side, seen as less motivated, can 
nevertheless get out its vote and large segments of the 
anti-government no vote decide that staying away from the 
polls is as good a way to register their protest as voting 
no, the yes may yet emerge victorious.  Barring these 
developments, however, most signs point to French voters 
rejecting the EU constitution May 29.  Septels will offer our 
analysis of the consequences of the vote for French domestic 
politics and for France in Europe.  End comment. 
WOLFF