US embassy cable - 02AMMAN3947

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 AMMAN 003947 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2012 
TAGS: PREL, KISL, PTER, EFIN, EAID, KPAO, KDEM, KIRF, PHUM, JO 
SUBJECT: JORDAN: ENGAGING ISLAM 
 
REF: STATE 61142 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR EDWARD GNEHM FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) 
AND (D). 
 
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SUMMARY AND BACKGROUND 
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1. (C) Embassy Amman's chief goals include promoting 
moderation and reform within Jordan through contact work and 
a wide range of programs.  Our Economic Reform efforts seek 
to achieve these goals through improved living standards, 
increased employment opportunities, and encouraging Jordan's 
continued commitment to economic reform and liberalization. 
Political Reform efforts aim at consolidating past democratic 
changes and advocating greater liberalization in Jordan, 
consistent with U.S. interests.  Education Reform efforts are 
geared towards skills enhancement and inculcating civic 
education and democratic values.  The Embassy's efforts in 
the area of Civil Society seek to achieve a number of key 
objectives including greater transparency and respect for 
human rights.  Finally, Embassy programs aim at promoting 
Religious Moderation and Tolerance as ends in themselves. 
 
2. (C) Despite the extent and effectiveness of our efforts at 
promoting moderation and reform, we are not the only force at 
work in Jordan.  Islamists have their own highly-developed 
programs for assisting people and, ultimately, consolidating 
political power through them.  The Muslim Brotherhood 
provides charitable assistance directly in the form of food, 
money, and tuition grants.  It also has influence in 
government-run institutions such as hospitals, schools, 
universities, and religious enterprises.  Because of these 
programs, the Muslim Brotherhood claims (without further 
justification) it offers assistance in more cities and towns 
throughout Jordan -- and therefore by implication has more 
supporters -- than the GOJ itself.  Jordan contains may poor, 
unemployed, disillusioned, and otherwise disenfranchised 
persons who turn to movements or causes like the Muslim 
Brotherhood that may appear to offer them redress. 
 
3. (C) In point of fact, there has been a significant 
Islamist presence among Jordan's predominantly moderate 
population since at least 1945.  Islamists in Jordan (mainly 
and most importantly the Muslim Brotherhood and its political 
arm, the Islamic Action Front) are well-organized and often 
highly-educated, with a significant history of participation 
in Jordanian public life.  Support for Islamic activism is 
heaviest in but not exclusive to metropolitan Amman.  In past 
elections, Islamists have won at many as 27.5% of the 
parliamentary seats in districts spanning much of the length 
of Jordan from Irbid in the north to Tafileh in the south. 
There is a strong perception that Islamist influence has 
grown since the start of the Al-Aqsa Intifada and in the wake 
of the U.S.-led war on terrorism.  Extreme Islamist rhetoric 
can be strongly anti-American. 
 
4. (C) Embassy programs have helped dampen anti-American 
sentiment in some quarters.  But, given Jordan's place in the 
center of a tense, combustible, and economically troubled 
region, extreme Islamist rhetoric resonates more strongly 
than it otherwise would and can breed sympathy for terrorism 
even in Jordan.  Jordan's situation therefore calls for 
careful evaluation of our past efforts at promoting 
moderation and reform as well as for careful consideration of 
the path ahead.  The following paragraphs address both of 
these topics in detail. 
 
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Economic Reform 
--------------- 
 
5. (C) Jordan has made significant strides towards improving 
its investment climate, and its privatization program is 
widely viewed as the best in the Middle East and one of the 
best among developing countries world-wide.  Jordan has far 
outpaced the region in recent years by enacting economic 
reforms that allowed it to accede to the WTO in 2000 in 
record time, and become fully TRIPS-consistent in the 
process.  Jordan also entered into a Free Trade Agreement 
(FTA) with the United States in 2001. 
 
6. (C) Jordan's macroeconomic fundamentals are sound, and the 
Kingdom is set to enjoy a third straight year of 4%-plus GDP 
growth.  But there remains a large gap between performance 
and expectations, which have been inflated by highly 
publicized reform efforts that have had little tangible 
effect at the microeconomic level.  GDP growth has not 
noticeably improved incomes or job opportunities, in large 
part because population growth rates are high (over 2.8%). 
As a result, wages are stagnant and unemployment remains high 
(15% by GOJ/IMF estimates).  Bureaucratic inefficiencies and 
corruption/"wasta" also hamper growth.  Moreover, regional 
factors (i.e., sanctions against Iraq and ongoing violence in 
Israel and the West Bank) mar Jordan's economic landscape by 
adversely impacting tourism, trade, and foreign investment. 
Ultimately, resolution of the "expectations gap" requires 
economic growth that significantly outpaces population 
growth, resulting in higher living standards and increased 
employment opportunities. 
 
7. (C) Current efforts: Much of Jordan's progress has 
resulted, and continues to result, from our multi-faceted 
assistance programs.  USAID programs in particular foster 
policy and regulatory reform, job creation, trade-capacity 
building for small Jordanian companies, and access to 
microfinance for low-income sectors of the economy.  USAID is 
also working with the GOJ to decrease the population growth 
rate, as a means of reigning in this significant drag on per 
capita GDP growth.  Many of USAID's economic programs are 
centered on supporting two tracks, the U.S.-Jordan FTA and 
King Abdullah's recently announced Social and Economic 
Transformation Plan (SETP).  The FTA has become a major 
centerpiece of our efforts to boost job creation.  Although 
the FTA is only 7 months old, a dozen or so local companies 
have already benefited by at least $7 million and additional 
projects are in the pipeline.  The SETP seeks to broaden the 
impact of positive economic change so that it is felt 
throughout all segments of Jordanian society. 
 
8. (C) Another USG initiative, the Qualifying Industrial 
Zones (QIZ) initiative, is perhaps our most impressive 
success story.  Designed to enhance Jordanian-Israeli 
commercial contacts, the QIZs are beginning to transform 
Jordan's economy and social structure.  The QIZs have 
generated over 22,000 jobs since 1998 and over $210 million 
in exports during 2001 alone.  Over 70% of QIZ jobs go to 
women, many of whom have never worked outside the home.  And 
the jobs, along with the multiplier effects of their wages on 
local economies, are creating pockets of support for 
political moderation in traditionally conservative 
communities. 
 
9. (C) Looking Ahead: Given the potentially destabilizing 
impact of poverty in general and the "expectations gap" in 
particular, King Abdullah recently announced the SETP.  The 
SETP seeks to spread benefits of growth expected from ongoing 
economic policy reforms to lower-income Jordanians.  Our 
current and future economic assistance programs will support 
the SETP.  Apart from its direct developmental benefits, the 
SETP seeks to bolster political stability by ensuring that 
all Jordanians have a stake in Jordan,s future.  Stability 
in Jordan will, in turn, promote regional stability.  USAID 
projects will continue to play a major role in addressing 
many of the areas related to poverty alleviation, health, 
water, and economic opportunity. 
 
10. (C) The GOJ has risked a lot by undertaking comprehensive 
economic reforms, both in terms of its relationships with its 
neighbors (notably Iraq and Syria), and internally by 
exposing Jordan's economy to global competition.  We, in 
turn, have a great deal at stake in Jordan's economic success 
-- not just in aid dollars, but in the political dividends 
that will accrue if Jordan emerges as a positive exemplar of 
liberalization's effects on a developing country.  Creating 
such a positive example not only advances our MEPP goals, but 
also furthers our counter-terrorism goals by using 
prosperity-derived economic development to discourage new 
recruits to terrorist organizations.  We must make all 
reasonable efforts to ensure that Jordan succeeds, so that 
the GOJ remains solidly behind reform and other governments 
in the region see that the U.S. supports strong internal 
commitment to reform.  This means, inter alia, supporting 
Jordan's debt reform efforts, helping Jordan accede to the 
WTO's Government Procurement Agreement, maintaining robust 
ESF and FMF levels, and assisting the GOJ in making the SETP 
succeed. 
 
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Political Reform 
---------------- 
 
11. (C) The Jordanian Political System: Jordan's Constitution 
describes the country's system of government as 
"parliamentary with a hereditary monarchy."  Although 
directly elected legislative assemblies have served 
sporadically in Jordan since the 1920s, the period since 1989 
has marked a new era in Jordan's political history, with 
increased openness towards opposition groups, restoration of 
electoral and parliamentary processes previously suspended, 
and recognition of political parties.  The GOJ allowed 
Islamists to participate in the 1989 parliamentary elections, 
where they won 27.5% of the seats.  Islamists won only 20% of 
the seats in the 1993 elections, and then boycotted the 1997 
elections.  Parliament was dissolved in June 2001 and has not 
been reconstituted.  Nor have new elections been announced. 
Several long-time Embassy contacts predict Islamists would 
win around 22% of the seats if elections were held today, and 
more than that if the regional situation deteriorates further. 
 
12. (C) Current Programs: Since Parliament is not now in 
session, the Embassy does not currently attend parliamentary 
meetings.  However, Embassy Officers attended Parliament 
frequently in the past and continue to meet regularly with 
parliamentarians and other persons representing all facets 
and levels of Jordanian political life.  Recent months have 
seen the restoration of contacts between the Embassy and 
moderate leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood opposition and its 
political arm in Jordan, the Islamic Action Front.  The 
Islamist political leadership has committed to continued 
dialogue with the Embassy and to additional meetings. 
 
13. (C) The GOJ has generally supported the Embassy's 
advocacy on behalf of U.S. interests.  We have no better 
regional partner on counter-terrorism than Jordan.  Our deep 
military-to-military relationship facilitates cooperation in 
military operations, from Afghanistan to a number of United 
Nations peacekeeping deployments.  Recently, the GOJ went on 
record hailing President Bush's June 24 speech on the Middle 
East as marking "the beginning of the end of the conflict 
between Arabs and Israelis," despite very widespread 
criticism of the speech within Jordan and throughout the 
region. 
14. (C) Looking Ahead: We are actively encouraging the GOJ to 
hold free, fair, and open elections leading to the 
restoration of a functioning Parliament, at the earliest 
reasonable opportunity.  In addition, our 2004 Mission 
Performance Plan proposes a number of other measures aimed at 
consolidating past democratic changes and promoting greater 
liberalization in Jordan (see below). 
 
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Education Reform 
---------------- 
 
15. (C) The Jordanian Educational System: Jordan enjoys 
relatively high educational status in terms of access to 
education and education levels, compared to other Arab 
Countries.  It has the second highest adult literacy rate in 
the region, at over 86%.  On the other hand, illiteracy among 
women (20.6%) is more than twice the rate for men (9.9%) and 
illiteracy is especially high (27-28%) in some tribal and 
rural areas like Ma'an and Mafraq.  Education is compulsory 
through the tenth grade.  As of 1997, there were seven public 
and thirteen private universities.  Due to the overall 
strength of Jordan's educational system, broad-based 
education reform programs are not called for.  However, the 
present Minister of Education is U.S.-educated, and wants to 
modernize and upgrade a number of elements in the curriculum. 
 Moreover, there is a need to address pockets of illiteracy 
affecting certain geographic areas and gender/ethnic 
groupings. 
 
16. (C) Current Programs: The Embassy is working closely with 
Ministry of Education officials in the areas of 
English-language instruction and civic education.  Around 
thirty Peace Corps volunteers are working (primarily in rural 
areas) to improve English skills among local teaching staff 
and students, upgrade teaching resources and materials, and 
develop innovative and effective pedagogical methods that 
complement Jordan's national curriculum.  The Embassy is also 
involved in a second program specifically aimed at improving 
English-language instruction in the middle schools.  (The 
British Embassy's elementary-school English-language program 
complements this program.)  Our middle-school program 
includes the teaching of English at model schools using 
English-language textbooks.  Finally, teacher training is 
complete for a third program involving civic education and 
democracy, using textbooks that adapt U.S. models to the 
Jordanian context.  The civic education/democracy program is 
scheduled to enter classrooms in twenty schools this 
September.  While high-level Ministry of Education officials 
strongly support these programs, lower-level Islamist 
employees criticize what they label "propagandization" 
through the use of U.S. textbooks. 
 
17. (C) In the area of higher education, the Embassy is 
involved with U.S.-Jordanian academic exchange programs, 
support of Jordanian post-graduate and post-doctoral students 
attending U.S. universities through the Fulbright program, 
and one of only two American Studies programs in the region 
(at Jordan University).  These programs are received 
enthusiastically by Jordanians, and they carry great weight 
in promoting a positive understanding of American society, 
culture, government, and institutions.  The Embassy also 
supports increased use of the English language and quality 
English teaching at many levels through the Regional English 
Language Office, the Arabic Book Translation Program, the 
American Language Center, the American Center for Oriental 
Research, and other initiatives.  1700 students, for example, 
received English-language instruction through the American 
Language Center in FY2001.  During the same year, six books 
translated through the Arabic Book Translation Program were 
accepted as textbooks or as assigned reading in Jordanian 
universities.  The AMIDEAST office in Amman provides 
counseling and information services to Jordanians who wish to 
study in the United States. 
18. (C) Looking Ahead: Much of our work will lie in 
continuing or expanding upon the range of successful programs 
we are currently involved in.  At the middle-school level, 
expansion will involve the maturation of pilot 
English-language and civic education programs as they enter 
the mainstream curriculum throughout Jordan.  We also 
anticipate expansion in other areas, including preschool and 
life-skills education, particularly for women and girls. 
There is, as noted above, a fear in some quarters that our 
involvement in reforming middle school curricula is aimed at 
promoting a "secret" U.S. agenda.  While such fears do not 
presently pose a serious risk of undermining our efforts, 
this risk should be monitored and assessed periodically. 
 
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Civil Society 
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19. (C) Jordanian Civil Society: NGOs promoting a number of 
important aims ranging from human rights to health care and 
economic development operate within Jordan.  Some of the many 
NGOs operating in Jordan include Save the Children (operating 
a junior-achievement type program), the Cooperative Housing 
Foundation (micro-enterprise financing), the Royal Society 
for the Conservation of Nature (environmental conservation 
and rural economic growth), the American Center for Oriental 
Research (restoration and preservation of antiquities), 
Habitat for Humanity (low-income housing), the Royal 
Commission on Human Rights (monitoring cases alleging human 
rights violations), the Jordanian Society for Citizens' 
Rights (human rights and other issues), the Jordanian Women's 
Union (women's rights), the Jordan Evangelical Theological 
Seminary (training of Christian pastors and missionaries), 
and the International Labor Organization (labor issues). 
 
20. (C) Regional tensions present the GOJ with difficult 
choices in balancing public order with open expression. 
Despite Jordan's history as one of the more open systems of 
civil society in the region, and the existence of a vibrant 
NGO culture within Jordan, critics charge that the GOJ has 
retrenched on its recognition of press freedoms and freedom 
of association since the beginning of the Al-Aqsa Intifada. 
 
21. (C) Current Programs: Our programs promoting civil 
society target a number of areas, some mediated through NGOs 
like those listed above and others through direct Embassy 
involvement.  As examples of the former, the Embassy 
supported creation of the Royal Commission on Human Rights as 
well as the Arab Society for Civic Education (a regional 
civil society NGO headquartered in Jordan) -- both of which 
institutions now operate without direct Embassy oversight. 
As examples of the latter, the Embassy sponsors speaker 
programs aimed at encouraging women to vote and participate 
in local politics, as well as exchange programs designed to 
expose Jordanians to U.S. institutions and society.  The 
Embassy co-sponsors with NGOs numerous workshops, lectures, 
and other programs directed at promoting democracy and human 
rights. 
 
22. (C) Other programs seek to encourage ethics and 
transparency in bureaucratic processes.  We are also engaged 
in the area of judicial reform, where the Embassy sponsors 
exchange visitor programs exposing key members of Jordan's 
judicial establishment to key elements of the U.S. legal 
system.  The Embassy has directed, and continues to direct, 
resources into a number of programs intended to improve the 
efficiency of Jordan's legal system, including English 
language instruction for judges, Alternative Dispute 
Resolution training programs, and case management training. 
Finally, the Embassy supports, through the USAID Mission, 
development of private business associations as advocacy 
groups and spokespersons for private enterprise.  These 
associations promote private sector-led development of 
Jordan's economy and encourage a new generation of business 
leaders who understand "new economic" principles. 
 
23. (C) One important lesson deriving from our past 
experience with promoting civil society in Jordan is that, 
while it is often possible to gain converts and funding for 
"new" projects, it is much more difficult to secure long-term 
support.  After an initial "honeymoon" period, some of our 
best programs either wither for lack of follow-on funding, or 
are taken over by other embassies and organizations.  For 
example, some of our ideas for elementary educational reform 
have been adopted by the British Embassy acting under the 
auspices of the British Council. 
 
24. (C) Looking Ahead: As with programs geared towards 
educational reform, much of our future work in building civil 
society will center on the continuation or expansion of the 
successful programs we are currently involved in, including 
speaker programs, exchange programs, and programs with NGOs. 
In addition, the GOJ (with assistance from USAID) is 
introducing a pilot "village clusters" community development 
program working with both international and local NGOs to 
promote grass-roots development based on local involvement 
and priorities, as part of the SETP.  We will assist in the 
continued rollout of this important program in coming years. 
We are also working with various governmental and 
non-governmental organizations to fight honor killings, 
support implementation of the International Labor 
Organization's core labor standards, and more generally 
enhance the already healthy respect for workers' rights in 
Jordan. 
 
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Religious Moderation and Tolerance 
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25. (C) Religious Moderation and Tolerance in Jordan:  About 
96% of Jordan's 5.2 million inhabitants are Sunni Muslim. 
The GOJ estimates the percentage of the population that is 
Christian at about 4%, although the actual figure is probably 
lower.  There are also small numbers of adherents to Druze, 
Shi'a, and Baha'a traditions.  Jordan's Constitution calls 
for the safeguarding of "all forms of worship and religious 
rites" within certain limitations, and states "there shall be 
no legal discrimination with regard to Jordanians' rights and 
duties based on . . . religion." 
 
26. (C) As an example of the depth to which principles of 
religious tolerance permeate, Christian students are not 
required to attend religious instruction required for Muslims 
in public schools.  As another illustration, the Royal 
Institute for Interfaith Studies and the Royal Academy for 
Islamic Civilization Research sponsor research, conferences, 
and discussion on a wide range of religious, social, and 
historical topics from both Muslim and Christian 
perspectives.  Political Islam finds expression in Jordan's 
relatively moderate version of the Muslim Brotherhood, the 
Islamic Action Front (the Muslim Brotherhood's Political 
Party arm), and other more moderate (and less important) 
Islamist political parties. 
 
27. (C) Current Programs: The Embassy has a number of 
programs aimed at furthering inter-religious dialogue and 
tolerance and, more specifically, at engaging Islam.  The 
Embassy has sponsored successful speaker programs aimed at 
accurately portraying Islam in the United States, some in 
cooperation with Islamist NGOs such as the Center for Islamic 
Thought.  The Embassy recently brought Georgetown 
University's Imam Yahya Hendi to Jordan as an exchange 
visitor.  During his highly successful visit, Hendi 
communicated his view of Muslim experience in the U.S. 
post-9/11, to counter rumors and anecdotes now circulating in 
the region about treatment of Muslims in the U.S. 
 
28. (C) Looking Ahead: Our program efforts for visiting 
Muslim scholars have been very successful, though more 
efforts along these lines are clearly called for.  One 
important lesson learned through our exchange visitor 
programs is that, whereas visitors attempting to justify U.S. 
policy in political terms often fail to get their message 
across, visitors taking more indirect approaches (e.g., 
explaining the nature of Islam in America) often encounter 
more success.  Apart from bringing U.S. speakers to Jordan, 
we should also encourage greater dialogue between Muslim 
religious leaders in Jordan and their counterparts in the 
U.S.  One way to do this might be to encourage Muslim 
institutions in the U.S. to sponsor conferences in Jordan or 
Jordanian visitors to the U.S. 
 
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COMMENT 
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29. (C) Jordan is wedged among Israel, the West Bank, Syria, 
Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, at the center of a tense and 
combustible region of vital interest to the United States. 
Jordan's geographical and political position in the region 
present a number of unique challenges, which we must account 
for in our attempts to promote moderation and reform within 
the country.  Along with the challenges, a number of positive 
factors make Jordan a relatively fertile ground for our 
efforts.  These positive factors include a reform-minded 
King, a savvy albeit nascent business elite that is 
supportive of Jordan's efforts to enter the global economy, 
and a moderate Islamist movement that professes support for 
the existing regime and a willingness to engage in dialogue. 
Within this framework, our efforts and programs hold great 
potential for continued success. 
Gnehm