US embassy cable - 05HALIFAX119

UNCLAS HALIFAX 000119 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR WHA/CAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, MARR, MCAP, CA, Liberal Party, Newfoundland and Labrador, Paul Martin 
SUBJECT: FEDERAL LIBERALS SURVIVE CRITICAL TEST IN LABRADOR 
BY-ELECTION 
 
REF: 04 HALIFAX 210 
 
1.  Summary:  Prime Minister Paul Martin and the governing 
Liberals have added one more seat to their ranks in the House of 
Commons with their win in a federal by-election.  A key issue in 
the Labrador campaign, which saw a string of national political 
figures on the stump in the huge but sparsely-populated riding, 
was the future of the airbase at Goose Bay.  END SUMMARY 
 
2. In one of the most closely watched contests in recent years, 
the Martin government got a shot in the arm with a decisive 
victory (51.5% of approximately 11,000 votes cast) in the May 24 
federal by-election in the riding of Labrador. The win by 
Liberal candidate Todd Russell was vitally important to the 
minority government that is dependent upon every single vote to 
ensure its survival in the House of Commons.  The victory was 
not, however, unexpected:  Liberals have only lost the Labrador 
riding once, in 1968.  Russell's victory means a new 
configuration in the House of Commons so that with the continued 
support of the NDP the Martin government now has more assurance 
of survival in the coming months. 
 
3. The prospect that the political scene could have been much 
different if Russell's closest rival, Conservative Graham Letto, 
had won the by-election meant that an inordinate amount of 
attention focused on the riding and its 25,000 inhabitants. 
Given the high stakes, as one of our Labrador contacts quipped: 
"there was no hand left unshaken, no baby un-kissed nor any 
favors un-promised," as a steady stream of political 
heavyweights turned up on the campaign trail.  On the Liberal 
side Tory-turned-Liberal Belinda Stronach was one of several 
cabinet ministers who showed up to support Russell's campaign, 
while Conservative leader Stephen Harper and deputy leader Peter 
MacKay were both on hand to campaign for Letto.  There was also 
no shortage of issues, chief among them the revitalization of 
the Goose Bay Air Base, which the Liberals and Conservatives 
both pledged to support. 
 
4. COMMENT:  While Russell's victory has prompted the Ottawa 
pundits and strategists to begin a new round of scenario 
building for the future of the Liberals, for the voters of 
Labrador the future is focused on one key issue: what becomes of 
the Goose Bay Air Force Base, which Ambassador Cellucci visited 
in August 2004 (reftel).  With unemployment near 20% in the 
riding, there will be no danger of the issue fading away, 
especially since the provincial government has been campaigning 
aggressively for Ottawa to invest in the base's future.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
HILL 
 
SIGNATURE