US embassy cable - 05COLOMBO946

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000946 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, MV, Maldives 
SUBJECT: MALDIVES:  GOVERNMENT APPEARS READY TO REGISTER 
POLITICAL PARTIES 
 
REF: A. COLOMBO 0845 
     B. COLOMBO 0837 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (SBU) On May 21 President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom asked the 
People's Majlis in its next session to take up the question 
of whether to allow the registration of political parties. 
The President's directive follows an opinion issued by the 
Attorney General overturning a 2001 finding from his 
predecessor that political parties are not allowed under the 
Constitution.  The People's Majlis, which in the past has 
functioned largely to rubber stamp "requests" from the 
President, is expected to move expeditiously on the question 
when its second session opens on June 1.  Opposition 
activists from the unregistered Maldivian Democratic Party 
welcomed the move, while cautioning that they expect Gayoom 
to try to co-opt the process by forming his own political 
party.  End summary. 
 
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PEOPLE'S MAJLIS TO REVIEW 
LEGALITY OF POLITICAL PARTIES 
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2.  (SBU) On May 21 President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom asked the 
People's Majlis to review in its upcoming session an earlier 
decision rejecting the registration of political parties in 
the island republic.  The President's request, conveyed in a 
letter to the Speaker of the Majlis, referred to a May 1 
opinion issued by Attorney General Dr. Hassan Saeed finding 
that the Constitution as currently framed does not prohibit 
the registration and operation of political parties (Ref A). 
 Saeed's finding contradicts a 2001 opinion issued by 
then-Attorney General Mohamad Munavvar (now, ironically, a 
founding member of the opposition Maldivian Democratic Party) 
that the Constitution did not provide for the registration 
and operation of political parties.  The next session of the 
People's Majlis is scheduled to open on June 1.  According to 
the Canadian High Commission, Attorney General Saeed told the 
High Commissioner that he expects the Majlis to move quickly 
on the question, possibly deciding within a week of its 
opening session. 
 
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MALDIVIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY HAPPY-- 
FOR ONCE 
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3.  (SBU)  In a May 23 meeting with poloff, Mohamad Latheef, 
the head of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) who lives in 
self-imposed exile in Sri Lanka, and Ibrahim Zaki, former 
SAARC Secretary General who was detained after the August 
12-13 civil unrest in the Maldivian capital, said they 
welcomed Gayoom's move.  Latheef said he believes it signals 
a recognition by the President that he cannot turn off 
popular demand for reform--but also a desire to control and 
shape those reforms according to his own agenda.  That said, 
by approving the drive to register political parties, the 
President's "agenda is now our agenda," Latheef declared.  By 
directing the People's Majlis to "reconsider" its 2001 
decision that the Constitution does not allow for political 
parties, Latheef said, Gayoom was bypassing the slow-moving 
Special Majlis, which had been specifically formed to review 
proposed constitutional amendments.  Since a "request" from 
the President is generally interpreted as an instruction, the 
People's Majlis can be expected to act quickly to endorse the 
recommendation, the pair indicated. 
 
4.  (SBU) Zaki and Latheef described themselves as optimistic 
about current trends, including ongoing efforts, initiated by 
the April 30 return to Maldives of MDP Chairperson Mohamad 
Nasheed (Ref B), to organize the MDP in the island nation. 
Nasheed had succeeded in renting office space--not advertised 
publicly as an MDP office, according to Latheef, but everyone 
knows what/where it is--distributing leaflets, signing up 
7,200 unofficial "members" in the capital of Male' and 
holding several unofficial meetings and forums, Latheef 
reported, without harassment by government authorities.  So 
far efforts to organize on outlying atolls lag behind those 
in the capital, Latheef acknowledged, but indicated there are 
plans to move ahead. 
 
5.  (SBU)  The MDP has formed a five-man leadership 
committee, composed of Latheef (who remains in Sri Lanka), 
Nasheed (who has just returned to Maldives), Zaki, People's 
Majlis Member and former detainee Ibrahim Ismail, and former 
Attorney General and former People's Majlis Member Mohamad 
Munavvar.  Latheef said that he hopes to return to Maldives 
to meet Gayoom, together with the other four MDP leaders, but 
only if the President guarantees him "safe passage." 
Although President Gayoom has made no direct overtures to 
members of the MDP, Zaki and Latheef said, his personal 
secretary has sent out "feelers" to Zaki and a few others. 
 
SIPDIS 
So far the MDP is resisting these overtures, seeing in this 
approach a divide-and-conquer effort to isolate key members, 
Latheef said. 
 
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GAYOOM TO FORM OWN PARTY? 
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6.  (SBU) Zaki and Latheef said they believe President Gayoom 
is trying to form his own political party to counter the 
popularity of the MDP and had invited prominent businessman 
and former detainee Ibrahim Gasim to join his party.  They 
indicated that Gasim, whom they described as still 
traumatized by his earlier incarceration, may feel pressure 
to accept the offer.  Even if the President's effort ends up 
being no more than "a sham party" with little popular 
backing, at least Gayoom is "going through the process" of 
institutionalizing a party system, Latheef commented, which 
the MDP can only welcome.  Other parties besides the MDP and 
the President's might also emerge, including one or two 
Islamic parties, Latheef indicated.  Expressing doubt that 
Gayoom "really wants competitive politics on a level playing 
field," Latheef warned that special care must be exercised to 
ensure that the nascent system allows for the development of 
truly democratic parties.  Specialized organizations like the 
National Democratic Institute might be able to help in this 
process, he suggested. 
 
7.  (SBU)  According to political officer Jean-Philippe 
Linteau of the Canadian High Commission, Canadian High 
Commissioner Valerie Raymond heard similar information during 
her May 8-9 visit to Maldives.  Education Minister Dr. 
Mahmood Shaugee reportedly claimed credit for urging Gayoom 
to move ahead with his own party, advising him that, in the 
absence of such an institution, competing family interests 
(specifically, Gayoom's brother and Trade Minister Abdulla 
Yameen and brother-in-law and Transport Minister Ilyas 
Ibrahim) would split and weaken pro-Government forces. 
People's Majlis MP and MDP member Ibrahim Ismail predicted to 
Raymond that when/if parties are legalized, the MDP might 
likely split into several opposition parties, including one 
or more Islamic parties. 
 
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SPECIAL MAJLIS:  SLOW 
BOAT TO REFORM 
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8.  (SBU) In a May 13 meeting with poloff in Colombo, Ali 
Faiz, a Special Majlis MP who was detained after the August 
12-13 unrest, said he believes that some members of the 
Special Majlis, including the Speaker, are deliberately 
slow-boating review of proposed constitutional amendments. 
Faiz said he had proposed several steps to speed up 
deliberations--including increasing the number of working 
hours (an average of three and a half hours a day, which is 
more or less standard for Government officials) and 
regularizing the schedule of sessions (now a sporadic two 
days a week but adhering to "no special pattern"), all of 
which have not been acted upon.  Right now, Faiz said, the 
Special Majlis is still enmeshed in considering no fewer than 
66 rules of procedure--a process begun in October--and has 
not even begun to take up the proposed amendments.  Moreover, 
the rules of procedure are being adopted in such a way as to 
allow the pro-Gayoom Speaker ample "room for maneuvering," 
Faiz warned darkly, e.g., leaving the Speaker too much leeway 
in deciding what items get put on the agenda.  The leisurely 
pace adopted by the Special Majlis suggests to Faiz that 
"truly they (the Government) don't want to move fast" on 
reform.  Instead, "Gayoom is buying time" to delay, the 
former detainee charged. 
 
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COMMENT 
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9.  (SBU) Gayoom may indeed have mixed motives for legalizing 
political parties including, as the MDP suggests, a wish to 
control the direction of reform his way.  Nonetheless, even 
the perpetually pessimistic MDP finds cause for optimism in 
Gayoom's move, and so do we.  If parties are legalized, the 
next important step, as the MDP suggests, is to ensure that 
the ensuing institutions are truly democratic in organization 
and operation.  We will monitor impending developments 
closely to see what scope there may be for U.S. assistance in 
this effort. 
LUNSTEAD