US embassy cable - 05CALCUTTA206

UNCLAS CALCUTTA 000206 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS AND INR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: BIHAR STATE ASSEMBLY DISSOLVED 
 
REF: CALCUTTA 000100 
 
1. (SBU)  SUMMARY: In the early hours of May 23, following 
Governor Buta Singh's recommendation, the United Progressive 
Alliance (UPA) Government at the Center dissolved the Bihar 
State Assembly. The State Assembly had previously been placed 
under a state of "suspended animation" (in which elected 
legislators cannot exercise their constitutional powers), 
following the imposition of President's Rule on March 7, 2005 as 
no party nor alliance won a clear majority in the February 2005 
elections and none of the state's competing political factions 
could cobble together a majority and form a popular government 
(REFTEL Calcutta 000100).  The UPA government made the decision 
to head off the growing possibility that the opposition National 
Democratic Alliance (NDA) could attract enough legislators from 
other parties to break the logjam and take power.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (U) On May 22, the Bihar Governor recommended dissolution of 
the assembly after a group of Lokjanshakti Party (LJP) 
legislators broke with LJP leader Ram Vilas Paswan and announced 
their intention to back an NDA government led by Janata Dal 
(United) [JD(U)] leader Nitish Kumar.  Bihar Governor Buta Singh 
had earlier confirmed that he had intelligence reports citing 
rampant "horse-trading" by the NDA (offering cash or future 
positions to wean away legislators) to attract LJP legislators. 
On May 23, President APJ Abdul Kalam (while in Russia) accepted 
the Cabinet's recommendation to dissolve the State Assembly of 
Bihar.   Union Home Minister Shivraj Patil said the UPA decision 
was made to preclude the buying and selling of legislators by 
unscrupulous political parties in the state. 
 
3. (SBU) Calling the dissolution unconstitutional, NDA leaders 
in Bihar have called for a statewide general strike on May 24 to 
demand the immediate recall of the Governor. Member of 
Parliament and Vice President of the Bharatiya Janata Party 
(BJP) Sushil Kumar Modi told Post that the recommendation to 
dissolve the Assembly was made at "the behest of Union ministers 
Ram Vilas Paswan and Lalu Prasad" to prevent Nitish Kumar from 
forming an NDA government in the state.  Union Home Minister 
Patil confirmed that the Election Commission would begin 
preparing for new elections, but observers in Bihar have noted 
that elections are unlikely until after the seasonal monsoon 
floods abate in September. 
 
4. (SBU) COMMENT: LJP leader Paswan, who emerged as a potential 
kingmaker after the February elections, has been trying to form 
a non-BJP and a non-Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) state government, 
but could not come up with enough legislators to procure a 
majority.  LJP Legislators, frustrated at the logjam, revolted 
and crossed over to the rival JD(U).  The prospect that the NDA 
could form the government in Bihar and hand a major defeat to 
the UPA was enough to compel the usually feuding RJD leader and 
Union Railway Minister Lalu Prasad and Union Steel Minister 
Paswan to bury their differences and unite to keep the NDA out 
of power.   UPA sources in Delhi are confident that with 
Congress support Lalu's RJD will return to power in new 
elections. Observers told Post that the Election Commission is 
unlikely to announce the date for a new election until at least 
September 6, when the first six-month term of President's Rule 
expires.  END COMMENT. 
 
This message has been cleared by Embassy New Delhi. 
 
 
SHULTZ