US embassy cable - 05OTTAWA1528

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 001528 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2014 
TAGS: CA, PGOV, PREL, Paul Martin, NDP, Liberal Party, Conservative Party 
SUBJECT: MARTIN SURVIVES BUDGET VOTE, WILL THE TORIES STAND 
DOWN? 
 
Classified By: POLOFF Keith W. Mines, reasons 1.4 (b) (d) 
 
1. (C) Summary: The Liberal government survived a budget vote 
May 19 by a one vote margin, the first time in Canadian 
history that the Speaker had to vote to break a tie.  The 
impending cliffhanger kept Ottawa buzzing for a week and now 
leaves MPs to return to their ridings for the long weekend 
and take the pulse of constituents before charting their next 
moves.  It appears the Conservatives will not try again to 
bring the government down this sitting, although they will 
still have the option on a number of occasions between now 
and the summer recess on June 23d.  This then pushes the 
election back to around February 2006, with the parties 
effectively entering now into a ten-month campaign.  While 
the tactical victory goes to Martin, Harper will try to keep 
his eye on the strategic prize of winning the next election, 
which with the Liberal Party brand so badly damaged, he still 
has a very good chance of doing.  But in a system where 
victory comes down to a gum-chewing independent with a 
ponytail who decides how to vote 30 minutes before the 
session, well, anything can happen.  End Summary 
 
LIBERALS SQUEAK BY 
------------------ 
 
2. (C) In a cliffhanger, the Liberals, supported by the New 
Democratic Party and two independents, survived a confidence 
vote on the NDP amendment to the budget May 19.  After the 
defection of Belinda Stronach earlier in the week evened the 
score at 151 a piece, the vote was in the hands of the two 
independents, Chuck Cadman and David Kilgour.  The Liberals 
only needed one of them to win, since in a tie Speaker 
Milliken would be obligated by Parliamentary procedure to 
vote in favor of further discussion of the bill at hand. 
There was high drama going into the vote, with a Liberal MP 
the afternoon prior leaving the House on a stretcher with 
chest pains, and the morning of the vote former Liberal MP 
Carolyn Parrish announcing she had intense stomach pains (she 
didn't let it stop her, stating later "come hell or high 
water, there's no frigging way I'm going to let one ovary 
bring the government down").  In the end all the MPs were in 
their places but it was still not clear which way Cadman and 
Kilgour would vote.  Cadman had expressed that he would 
follow his constituents, who were weighted against an early 
election, and Kilgour indicated he would vote against the 
government for not doing enough on Sudan and for unease over 
how Martin had enticed Stronach to switch sides with a 
cabinet position.  The first vote on the original budget 
passed with Conservative support but with the Bloc voting 
against.  Then the vote on the NDP amendment to the budget 
ended in a tie.  Speaker Milliken then assumed his historic 
duty to break the tie, allowing the budget to go to third 
reading and the government to survive.  It was the first time 
this had happened in Canadian history. 
 
3. (C) The Liberals treated the victory like an election win, 
with a televised caucus rally afterward in which the 
strongest applause was given to the backroom Parliamentary 
strategist who had figured out how to keep the government 
alive amidst the many attempts by the Conservatives and Bloc 
to bring it down.  PM Martin's remarks to the party and the 
country were that "tonight we stood up for a balanced budget. 
 Tonight we saw the value of cooperation over conflict. 
Tomorrow we begin to put tonight's vote into effect."  He 
called on the opposition to put aside their efforts to bring 
the government down and cooperate with the government on the 
business they have been elected to conduct. 
 
CONSERVATIVE NEXT STEPS 
----------------------- 
 
4. (C) The Conservative response is not yet clear, and 
probably will not be for the next few days; they have a 
week-long recess to listen to constituents and decide on 
their next steps.  Conservative House Leader Jay hill said 
last week that if they lost this vote it was unlikely they 
would continue their efforts to bring the government down. 
After the vote, Conservative Leader Harper said "while 
tonight's vote is an unfortunate result for this country at 
the moment, it will provide us Conservatives with persuasive 
arguments for change when Canadians finally and inevitably 
head to the polls."  Deputy Party Leader MacKay said on the 
way into a caucus meeting after the vote, "Look, we're not 
going to be obstructionist, we're not going to be 
irresponsible, we're not going to simply play some kind of 
partisan game here.  This is very serious business."  What 
all this means is not entirely clear.  It would seem that the 
Conservatives hold out the possibility of defeating the 
government this session if the numbers were to line up, but 
will not be actively attempting to do so, and will allow the 
business of Parliament to continue in the meantime.  They 
still have eight days when confidence votes will be held -- 
four on the budget, and four on opposition days -- between 
now and the end of Parliament on June 23. 
 
WHERE DID THE CONSERVATIVES GO WRONG? 
------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Where did the Conservatives go wrong in losing this 
key vote?  It may have been more a question of where the 
Liberals went right.  When Harper first threw down the 
gauntlet it appeared he had the votes in the House to win and 
only needed to wait for the right opportunity.  He was taking 
a chance because the polls showed that Canadians still did 
not want to go to elections, but he was probably banking on 
the fact that Gomery was taking a large enough toll on public 
confidence and would continue to do so through the election 
season.  He reasoned that people's anger over Liberal scandal 
would ultimately outweigh their anger about being dragged to 
the polls so soon after the last election.  Unfortunately for 
Harper, the Liberals controlled the public checkbook, the 
Parliamentary calendar, and the appointment of Ministers. 
 
6. (C) PM Martin went to work, showing himself as anything 
but Mr. Dithers in the process.  First, he secured the 
support of the NDP by tacking on an additional CN $4.2 
billion to the budget for social programs, thus raising his 
vote totals to within striking distance of the 
Conservative-Bloc alliance.  Then he manipulated the calendar 
to buy time while he drew out some more support, denying the 
Conservatives their normal Opposition Days which would have 
brought the government down.  When the government did lose a 
non-binding no-confidence vote, he simply ignored it, and 
then accused the Conservatives of obstructing the business of 
government when they refused to show up for work in the 
vote's aftermath.  He then went to work trying to swing the 
last needed one or two votes, trying first to buy David 
Kilgour's vote with a major aid package for Sudan.  When that 
didn't work he tried to get to Cadman.  Feelers were also 
sent out for Conservatives who risked losing their seats in 
an election who might want a Senate or other high-level 
posting.  Then in a stroke of luck Belinda Stronach crossed 
the isle.  Assuming Cadman stuck to his story of following 
his constituent's wishes, the PM was secure. 
 
7. (C) For Harper it was most definitely a tactical defeat, 
and will not bode well for his future leadership of the 
party, which is already on shaky ground.  And while Harper 
had few of the tools and none of the money that the PM did, 
he nonetheless made some mistakes that will resonate.  First, 
he may have gotten ahead of the electorate and of his own 
caucus, many of whom had doubts about plunging into an 
election so soon.  Second, he started to get somewhat 
emotional in his exchanges with the governing party and 
especially with the PM.  His reference to the PM's career 
"going down the toilet" in question period was precisely the 
kind of thing that generous-minded Canadians don't like in 
politicians.  But it was the background that is emerging from 
the Stronach affair that hits the Conservative leader the 
hardest.  Harper apparently dressed Stronach down after her 
public questioning of the Conservative position on the 
budget, and then sources inside the party report that at a 
recent pre-campaign training session a Stronach photo was 
used as an example of what candidates ought not to do.  He 
also reportedly made it clear to Stronach that she would not 
have a place of prominence any time soon in the party.  All 
of this undoubtedly accelerated this key departure. 
 
ELECTION SHAPING 
---------------- 
 
8. (C) Losing the vote last night was a tactical defeat but 
the looming question regards the strategic picture.  Assuming 
the Conservatives do not force a vote in coming weeks, the 
two parties are effectively locked in a 10-month campaign 
that could culminate in a February election.  University of 
Ottawa political historian and popular commentator David 
Mitchell told PolOff the day of the vote that it will all 
come down to the same question as the last campaign.  The 
2004 election, he said, was the triumph of fear over anger. 
Voters were angry about Gomery, but fearful of the 
Conservative "hidden agenda" that the Liberals so skillfully 
exploited.  This time the question will be whether anger will 
trump fear.  Mitchell believes that the anger will be greater 
and the fear mixed.  Anger will continue to grow as Gomery 
grinds on.  It has seriously damaged the "Liberal brand" and 
there is more to come.  And it is no longer just Gomery, 
there are also the public accounts hearings that are showing 
Liberal malfeasance in more routine areas of contracting and 
the way the Liberals have bought support over the past few 
weeks will probably resonate negatively. 
 
9. (C) The fear factor is a mix of the supposed Conservative 
hidden social agenda, some of which was put aside in the 
recent Conservative Convention.  But with recent fissures 
emerging among Western and more progressive Conservatives, 
something Stronach's departure served to highlight, this will 
continue to resonate, especially with Ontarians.  Added to 
social fears there is the concern that a Conservative victory 
would strengthen the separatists in Quebec, with the ultimate 
fear that Canada could, in Mitchell's word's "sleepwalk" 
toward a catastrophe.  It is indeed ironic that the Liberal 
Party, whose sponsorship scandal has done more than anything 
to bolster the separatist cause, would be seen as the party 
which could keep the country together, but such is how many 
Canadians will see it. 
 
10. (C) Comment: All of this will play out in the coming 
months as the two sides continue to volley for position for 
the coming election.  But there is now some breathing space. 
For the U.S. it gives us a bit of stability with which to 
advance our agenda in the SPP, defense spending, Haiti, and 
other initiatives.  We are destined to deal with a minority 
government for the foreseeable future and the election, 
whenever it comes, will presumably bring another minority 
government.  But no government in the future could possibly 
have the kind of even numbers that this one has.  This has 
been an anomaly that is unlikely to be repeated.  Meanwhile 
it makes for, and will continue to make for, a very wild ride. 
 
Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa 
 
DICKSON