US embassy cable - 05PARIS3540

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 003540 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA; 
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA 
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR 
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; 
ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAN: EU-3 TALKS, NUCLEAR 
PROGRAM 
PARIS - TUESDAY, MAY 24, 2005 
 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
IRAN: EU-3 TALKS, NUCLEAR PROGRAM 
 
(B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
WITH THE VOTE ON THE EU CONSTITUTION LOOMING, THE MAJORITY OF 
HEADLINES AND COMMENTARIES CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE FUTURE OF 
THE EU. GERHARD SCHROEDER'S DEFEAT IN A LEGISLATIVE ELECTION 
IN NORTH RHINE-WESTPHALIA AND HIS DECISION TO HOLD EARLY 
ELECTIONS ALSO DOMINATE MANY OF TODAY'S HEADLINES, THE 
MAJORITY OF WHICH CALL THE DECISION SCHROEDER'S "DOUBLE OR 
NOTHING." 
 
RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO PUBLISHES A NEW POLL THAT SHOWS THE 
"NO" LEADING BY 53 PERCENT WITH 71 PERCENT OF THOSE POLLED 
CLAIMING THAT THEY WILL NOT CHANGE THEIR MINDS. CATHOLIC LA 
CROIX'S FRONT-PAGE HEADLINE AND EDITORIAL HYPOTHESIZE: "WHAT 
IF FRANCE VOTES YES?" LA CROIX PUTS FORTH THAT A FRENCH "YES" 
WOULD MEAN THAT THE CONSTITUTION COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AS EARLY 
AS 2006 AND THAT IT WOULD GIVE IMPETUS TO THE REFERENDA THAT 
WILL BE HELD IN HOLLAND, LUXEMBURG AND DENMARK. CENTRIST 
BUSINESS-ORIENTED LA TRIBUNE INDICATES THAT THE "OUTCOME OF 
THE REFERENDUM COULD AFFECT THE PARITY BETWEEN THE EURO AND 
THE DOLLAR." 
 
LEFT-OF-CENTER LE MONDE LEADS: "GERMANY, FRANCE AND HOLLAND: 
EUROPE IS HESITANT ABOUT ITS FUTURE," WHILE LEFT-OF-CENTER 
LIBERATION AND COMMUNIST L'HUMANITE ANALYZE THE FEAR IN FRANCE 
OF "SOCIAL DUMPING" AND "MASSIVE OUTSOURCING" SHOULD THE 
CONSTITUTION BE RATIFIED. THE EDITORIALS IN BOTH LIBERATION 
AND L'HUMANITE CONCLUDE THAT THE REFERENDUM IN FRANCE HAS AT 
LEAST HAD THE OF EFFECT SHEDDING LIGHT ON THIS FEAR AMONG 
FRENCH WORKERS. 
 
RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO'S LEADING INTERNATIONAL STORY 
CONCERNS IRAN IN LIGHT OF THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
AND THE AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI'S DECISION TO REVIEW BACK THE BAN 
ON TWO REFORMIST CANDIDATES IN RUNNING IN THE ELECTION AS WELL 
AS THE EU-3 MEETINGS TO DISCUSS IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM. THE 
MEETINGS IN BRUSSELS TODAY AND GENEVA TOMORROW OVER THE ISSUE 
OF IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM IS QUALIFIED AS A "LAST CHANCE" BY 
LE FIGARO, ADDING THAT THESE MEETINGS WILL BE "CLOSELY WATCHED 
BY WASHINGTON. WHICH IS CALLING ON EUROPEAN DIPLOMACY TO PROVE 
THAT IT IS CREDIBLE." (SEE PART C) 
 
REPORTS ON THE UOIF'S (THE UNION OF ISLAMIC ORGANIZATIONS OF 
FRANCE) OPPOSITION TO THE "SECOND CHRONICLE OF FATWAS" 
PUBLISHED BY THE "EUROPEAN COUNCIL OF FATWAS" PROMPTS LEFT-OF- 
CENTER LE MONDE TO CALL THE CHRONICLE "EMBARRASSING" FOR THE 
UOIF AND THE CFCM (FRENCH MUSLIM COUNCIL) WHO FEAR THAT THIS 
TEXT WILL TARNISH THE IMAGE OF MODERATE MUSLIMS IN FRANCE. 
 
 
 (C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
IRAN: EU-3 TALKS, NUCLEAR PROGRAM 
 
"THE CHINESE WAY FOR IRAN" 
BERNARD GEUTTA TOLD LISTENERS THIS MORNING ON STATE-RUN FRANCE 
INTER RADIO: "EVIDENTLY THE CHOICE OF THE NEW PRESIDENT IN 
IRAN HAS ALREADY BEEN MADE AND IT APPEARS THAT FORMER 
PRESIDENT RAFSANDJANI WILL WIN.  WHILE MOHAMMAD KHATAMI WAS 
CONSIDERED TO BE THE IRANIAN GORBATCHEV, A MAN WHO DETERMINED 
TO LEAD HIS COUNTRY TOWARD DEMOCRACY, ALI-AKBAR RAFSANDJANI 
SEEMS TO PERSONIFY THE `CHINESE WAY,' THAT IS TO SAY POLITICAL 
DICTATORSHIP COEXISTING WITH ECONOMIC LIBERALIZATION AND THE 
QUEST FOR A `MODUS VIVENDI' WITH THE U.S. WITH THE FUTURE 
ELECTION OF ALI-AKBAR RAFSANDJANI, IRAN MAY REACH A HAND OUT 
TO THE U.S. THAT TODAY IT CONTINUES TO DEFY WITH ITS NUCLEAR 
AMBITIONS. RAFSANDJANI DREAMS OF AN HISTORIC COMPROMISE WITH 
THE U.S. THAT WOULD ENSURE IRAN'S DOMINATION IN THE REGION IN 
EXCHANGE FOR IT CONTRIBUTING TO THE STABILIZATION ON IRAQ AND 
PROMOTING THE DIALOGUE WITH ITS ARAB NEIGHBORS." 
"IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM" 
ON PRIVATE RTL RADIO, ISABELLE DATH COMMENTED (05/24): "THE 
NEGOTIATIONS ON THE FUTURE OF IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM ARE 
CRUCIAL. IT IS A DANGEROUS GAME OF LIAR'S POKER. THE IRANIANS 
ARE PLAYING WITH THE EUROPEANS' NERVES. AND THE WEST NO LONGER 
TRUSTS THIS COUNTRY WHICH FOR THE LAST 18 YEARS HAS BEEN 
TRYING TO HIDE ITS NUCLEAR ACTIVITIES. IRAN IS ALSO ENTERING A 
TACTICAL PHASE WITH THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ON JUNE 17. 
FACED WITH THE OUTCRY WITHIN THE COUNTRY AS WELL AS ABROAD 
AGAINST THE DECISION TO BAR TWO REFORMIST CANDIDATES FROM THE 
ELECTION AND COMPOUNDED WITH THE U.S. THREAT TO WITHHOLD ITS 
SUPPORT FOR IRAN BECOMING PART OF THE WTO, THE AYATOLLAH 
KHAMENEI WAS FORCED TO ORDER A REVIEW OF THE DECISION." WOLFF