US embassy cable - 05WELLINGTON409

UNCLAS E F T O SECTION 01 OF 03 WELLINGTON 000409 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
STATE PASS USDA FAS 
STATE FOR EAP/ANP/RAMSEY AND EB/TPP/BTA/ANA/ARMSTRONG 
USDA FOR FAS/FAA/CONLON AND SEBRANEK, FAS/OA/TERPSTRA, 
AND FAS/ITP/SHEIKH AND MEYER 
 
SENSITIVE 
NOFORN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ETRD, TBIO, EAGR, ECON, NZ 
SUBJECT: MINISTER SUTTON'S INVITATION TO USDA SECRETARY 
JOHANNS TO VISIT NEW ZEALAND - - POLITICAL SCENESETTER 
 
REF: WELLINGTON 00360 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (SBU/NF) Aides to New Zealand Agriculture Minister 
Sutton have reiterated to us their hope that Secretary 
Johanns will visit New Zealand, noting that a potential 
August/September visit, timed to a Quint Ministerial in 
Australia, would be viewed as "supportive."  Minister 
Sutton would welcome the Secretary's visit despite the 
fact that the Minister is facing a tough re-election 
campaign in this year's general election, which will 
probably be held August 20 or September 17.  Sutton also 
has been drawn into the political limelight recently 
because of a decision by Tim Groser, New Zealand's WTO 
Ambassador and chair of the WTO's Agricultural 
Negotiating Committee, to run for parliament as an 
opposition National Party candidate.  End Summary. 
 
2. (U) Jim Sutton is Minister for Agriculture in the current 
Labor Government of New Zealand.  He also is Minister for 
Biosecurity and Minister for Trade Negotiations. 
Minister Sutton recently relinquished the Forestry and 
Rural Affairs portfolios.  He is the only Labor Party 
Member of Parliament with a rural/farming-based 
constituency.  Most of New Zealand's farming community 
falls in the center-to-right of the political spectrum 
while the Labor Party generally represents the center-to- 
left.  Minister Sutton represents the Aoraki District in 
the South Island.  Excluding the city of Timaru 
(estimated population of 27,000), the district is made up 
of small farming/rural communities.  Minister Sutton has 
represented Aoraki since 1996.  Prior to that he was an 
MP for Timaru (1993-96) and an MP for Waitaki (North 
Otago) from 1984-1990. 
 
3. (SBU/NF) Jo Goodhew, the National Party's candidate 
for the Aoraki District, will challenge Minister Sutton 
in the coming general election.  Trained as a nurse, 
Goodhew recently resigned from her position as 
coordinator for New Zealand's Safer Community Council. 
Goodhew has been involved in a range of community 
activities in Timaru and enjoys a high profile in the 
district.  In a speech to National's southern division 
this week, National Party Leader, Dr. Don Brash, 
identified Minister Sutton's seat as one of three South 
Island Labor seats National was targeting for the general 
election.  Recent National Party polling reportedly shows 
a significant swing toward National in Minister Sutton's 
district.  According to local media reporting, Minister 
Sutton rejected National's polling results, but 
acknowledged that he was working hard in Aoraki given 
that he had always viewed the seat as marginal despite 
his majority in past elections. 
 
4. (SBU/NF) With the National Party believing that 
Goodhew will pose a serious threat to Sutton in the 
upcoming election, it will strongly support her campaign. 
Goodhew's appeal to voters in the Aoraki District will 
focus on the following issues: 
 
5. (SBU/NF) Sutton is viewed by much of rural New Zealand 
as being the spokesperson for the Government's efforts to 
grant greater access to public lands.  These areas, 
referred to as the "Esplanade Reserves," include New 
Zealand's coastline and 20 meters on both sides of all 
waterways.  Federated Farmers of New Zealand has 
expressed its support for maintaining private property 
rights within the context of the land access issue.  In 
general, the farming community believes that the public 
already enjoys adequate access to waterways across 
privately held farmland and is disappointed that the 
Government has not staked out a position that indicates 
its support for the property rights of rural landowners. 
The Government currently is proposing to establish a 
commission that will explore the land access issue. 
 
6. (SBU/NF) Voters in rural areas, including the Aoraki 
District, generally view the public land access issue as 
a Labor Party initiative that serves its urban 
constituents.  Goodhew has characterized Minister Sutton 
as being out of touch with rural concerns on waterway 
access.  The Government's efforts are seen as potentially 
interfering with farmland management, raising safety 
concerns, and posing biosecurity risks.  A sense of 
distance between Minister Sutton and his Aoraki 
constituents is heightened by the fact that he 
permanently resides in Wellington, following his divorce 
several years ago.  Prior to entering politics, Minister 
Sutton was a fulltime farmer. 
 
7. (SBU/NF) Plans to increase power output from 
hydroelectric facilities on the Waitaki River, which runs 
across the southern boundary of the Aoraki District, are 
viewed cautiously by the local farming community. 
Concern exists that a balanced approach to water 
allocation will not be maintained and that future 
irrigation requirements will be overlooked in favor of 
urban electrical demands.  This concern is heightened by 
a shift in decision-making authority for the project from 
a regional level to the central government. 
 
8. (SBU/NF) A number of schools in the Aoraki District 
are being closed in response to the Ministry of 
Education's consolidation of school facilities throughout 
New Zealand.  This includes the closure of the Pleasant 
Point secondary school in the Aoraki District, with 
students being transferred to Temuka secondary school. 
Pleasant Point has a student body of 250-300 students. 
An additional two dozen smaller rural primary schools 
face closure in the Aoraki District.  Minister Sutton 
could face a voter backlash from the emotionally charged 
school closings being undertaken by the Labor Government. 
 
9. (SBU/NF) Weighing in favor of Minister Sutton's re- 
election will be the general well-being of New Zealand's 
farming community based on exceptionally strong dairy and 
meat (beef and lamb) export price levels, which have 
offset lower returns resulting from the appreciation of 
New Zealand's currency during the past two years.  Voters 
may see benefits from maintaining Minister Sutton in his 
role as Minister for Trade Negotiations as New Zealand 
pursues its efforts to open markets to its agricultural 
products through the Doha trade round and to secure a 
free trade agreement with the United States. 
 
10. (SBU/NF) As further proof that agriculture may be a 
significant issue in the coming elections, the National 
Party has announced the nomination of Tim Groser to fill 
one of its Party (List) seats.  His candidacy means that 
he will have to stand down as New Zealand's WTO 
ambassador since it is a posting of the Ministry of 
Foreign Affairs and Trade and public servants are not 
permitted to keep their jobs while standing for 
Parliament.  Mr. Grosser reportedly has expressed his 
intention to stay on to chair the WTO's agricultural 
negotiations until December under the belief that since 
he was appointed to the position by the WTO, it is 
outside of New Zealand Government's authority.  Prime 
Minister Clark, however, has expressed her Government's 
loss of confidence in Mr. Groser's ability to continue to 
chair the WTO's agricultural negotiating committee.  With 
New Zealand's general election to be held no later than 
September 24, Groser's ability to chair the agricultural 
negotiations when trade ministers meet in Hong Kong next 
December is not certain.  Mr. Groser is expected to 
resign by the end of the week as New Zealand's ambassador 
to the WTO.  He will make a case for continuing as 
chairman of the agricultural negotiations as a private 
citizen and reportedly is offering to personally fund his 
expenses for staying on in Geneva. 
 
11. (SBU/NF) A spokesperson for National Leader Dr. Don 
Brash indicated that Mr. Groser will forgo his MP's 
salary if elected and would remain at the WTO until 
December.  The National Party will attempt to make 
political capital in the run-up to the general election 
from Labor's decision not to support Mr. Groser in 
staying on in Geneva.  Media reports indicate that Mr. 
Groser was offered a top-30 list position, which if true, 
would make his election highly likely. 
 
12. (SBU/NF) Comment: Minister Sutton is facing a 
difficult election and may not maintain the 6,400-vote 
majority in the Aoraki District that he obtained 4 years 
earlier.  If he should lose the election, but a Labor-led 
Government emerges, he would likely retain his 
Ministerial portfolio and be designated as a List (Party) 
MP for Labor.  If the National Party should emerge 
victorious, Tim Groser could become National's new 
Minister for Trade Negotiations and/or Foreign Minister. 
SWINDELLS