US embassy cable - 05HOCHIMINHCITY534

UNCLAS  HO CHI MINH CITY 000534 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
FOR CA/OCS/ACS/EAP; EAP/EX; EAP/BCLTV; OES/STC (M.GOLDBERG); 
OES/IHA (D.SINGER AND N.COMELLA) 
BANGKOK FOR RMO, CDC, USAID/RDM/A - MFRIEDMAN 
STATE PASS HHS FOR STEIGER 
USDA FOR FAS/PASS TO APHIS 
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE FOR OSD/ISA/AP FOR LEW STERN 
DIRAFMIC FOR WENNER, MULLINS, WYMA 
USAID FOR GHB, ANE/DCAROLL, SCLEMENTS AND PCHAPLIN 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON, EAGR, KPAO, SENV, PGOV, SOCI, VM, AFLU 
SUBJECT: AVIAN FLU IN SOUTHERN VIETNAM: COMPLACENCY SETS IN 
 
REF:  Ho Chi Minh City 00058 
 
1.  (U) Summary:  Although avian influenza continues to pose a 
serious medical and economic risk to Vietnam since the most recent 
outbreak in December 2004, average Vietnamese citizens in southern 
and central Vietnam have modified neither their diet nor their 
livelihood, continuing to eat and raise poultry.  Driving this 
complacent attitude, in part, seem to be mixed signals given by 
Vietnamese media, reporting on one hand that avian flu is waning 
and on the other, decrying the inefficiency of local governments 
in enforcing necessary preventive measures.  Another factor is 
cultural -- an ingrained tolerance and acceptance of the 
inevitability of disease.  End summary. 
 
2.  (U) Since December 2004, 41 avian flu cases and 16 confirmed 
deaths have been reported in Vietnam, according to the World 
Health Organization.  Regional authorities have imposed 
restrictions on importing poultry from other affected countries 
and have culled more than 46 million poultry, costing an estimated 
VND 1.3 trillion (approximately USD 82.3 million) since December 
2003.  Thirty-five of Vietnam's 61 provinces and urban districts 
have reported cases of avian influenza, particularly in and around 
Ho Chi Minh City and in the Mekong Delta provinces.  Avian 
influenza has cost Vietnam an estimated VND 500 billion 
(approximately USD 31.6 million), reducing GDP by 0.5 per cent -- 
equivalent to about VND 3,000 billion (approximately USD 189.9 
million), according to a report in the national daily Nguoi Lao 
Dong ("The Worker") dated April 19. 
 
3.  (SBU) The leading newspapers in HCMC, including Tuoi Tre 
("Youth"), the most widely circulated daily in Vietnam, Thanh Nien 
("Young People") and Saigon Giai Phong ("Saigon Liberation"), 
initially led the charge for public awareness of preventive safety 
and hygiene measures after the most recent outbreak of avian 
influenza in December 2004.  Reporting was timely and widespread, 
increasing public awareness of avian influenza (reftel).  In 
recent weeks, the intensity of media reporting on avian influenza 
has waned.  During the last week of April there was not a single 
report on avian influenza in any of the prominent HCMC daily 
newspapers. 
 
4. (SBU) Media reporting has also been inconsistent in content. 
Thanh Nien reported that avian influenza had been controlled in 
all provinces except for Tra Vinh in the Mekong Delta, and that 
the virus was on the wane.  On the other hand, subsequent articles 
by HCMC dailies, including Thanh Nien, decried regional 
governments' implementation of safety measures.  During the week 
of April 18, the National Steering Committee on the Prevention of 
Bird Flu organized a conference in Hanoi to review the fight 
against avian influenza.  According to Thanh Nien, the committee 
released a report concluding that Vietnam had yet to implement all 
regulations to halt the spread of the virus, such as rules on the 
slaughter and disposal of infected poultry and the movement of 
poultry across international borders.  While careful to not 
overtly criticize the central government, the report cited 
regional governments as being an impediment to stamping out the 
virus.  According to Thanh Nien, the report states, "They [GVN 
leaders] do take it seriously at the top levels. But the fight 
against avian influenza is not up to the government at top levels, 
it's up to the chairman of the local People's Committee." 
 
5. (SBU) It appears that many people in southern Vietnam view 
avian influenza as no different than other viruses that have beset 
the country.  Few Vietnamese have modified their lifestyles 
regarding either diet or raising livestock.   While HCMC has 
banned raising poultry, chickens can still be found moving around 
freely in central-city areas, sometimes near police stations.  In 
rural areas, fowl continue to be an interlocking part of life with 
 
farmers.  One ConGen officer visited rural areas of Hau Giang 
province in March and noticed chickens strolling in and out of 
farmers' homes -- locations that were part of a model rural 
development project. 
 
6. (U) Eating habits and poultry prices reflect Vietnam's 
complacency towards avian influenza.  Even white-collar workers 
seem oblivious to the danger of eating chicken and, in particular, 
towards eggs.  At Quan An Ngon Restaurant ("Tasty Restaurant"), a 
popular local spot for office workers and professionals, people 
eat chicken dishes with little concern.  Restaurateurs who, during 
the first outbreak of avian influenza in December 2003, had 
removed eggs from the menu as a precaution, have not halted the 
service of chicken or eggs this time around.  Poultry, especially 
popular during holiday festivals in Vietnam, rose to VND 40,000- 
50,000 (approximately USD 2.53 to 3.16)/kg in anticipation of the 
April 30th celebration of Vietnam's unification, reported Thanh 
Nien.  These price levels are well above poultry prices in 
December and the second week of January, VND 27,300 (approximately 
USD 1.73)/kg and VND 25,500 (approximately USD 1.63)/kg, 
respectively (reftel).  Since the April 30 holiday, prices have 
dipped slightly, but continue to move upward.  The current retail 
price of slaughtered whole chicken is about VND 30,000-32,000 
(approximately USD 1.89 to USD 2.02)/kilogram. The fast-food 
restaurant Lotteria is buying chicken at VND 32,000 (approximately 
USD 2.02)/kilogram or higher.  Wholesale supplier Metro is 
promoting chicken in its weekly sales flyer at VND 25,000 
(approximately USD 1.58)/kilogram, perhaps to regain consumer 
confidence in chicken.  While sales to large restaurants and 
hotels remain steady, sales to supermarkets have been accompanied 
by a "buy-back guarantee" if the supermarket is unable to sell the 
chicken after several weeks. 
 
7. (SBU) COMMENT:  Avian influenza will continue to pose a danger 
to Vietnam.  What is most alarming right now is the complacency 
with which the average Vietnamese person perceives the danger of 
the virus, ignoring the most basic recommended precautions with 
respect to diet and economic activity.  In order to help modify 
this behavior, the Vietnamese media needs to renew its consistency 
and vigilance in reporting the continued danger of the virus, as 
it initially did in December 2004.  END COMMENT. 
 
WINNICK 
 
 
NNNN