US embassy cable - 05CANBERRA879

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 CANBERRA 000879 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
STATE FOR EAP AND EAP/ANP 
MANILA PASS KOROR, KOLONIA AND MAJURO 
WELLINGTON PASS APIA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PTER, MARR, AS, CH, TW, ID, TT, ARF, APEC, NK, SK 
SUBJECT: AUSTRALIA: EAP A/S HILL'S DFAT ROUNDTABLE, SESSION 
ONE: DPRK, CHINA, TAIWAN, EAST ASIAN ARCHITECTURE, 
SOUTHEAST ASIA 
 
 
Classified By: CDA Bill Stanton.  Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
1.  (C) In a May 17 roundtable attended by senior 
Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) 
officials, DFAT Deputy Secretary Geoff Raby told EAP 
Assistant Secretary Christopher R. Hill that Australia 
supports the U.S. approach to the DPRK nuclear problem and 
would continue to convey to North Korea, and others, that 
the Six Party Talks should resume without delay and without 
preconditions.  Australia has high hopes for its economic 
relationship with China and is keen to see the improvement 
in U.S.-China relations continue.  PM Howard will convey 
this sentiment, along with his optimism about the 
opportunity for the U.S. and Australia to dramatically 
improve relations with Indonesia, to President Bush when 
they meet in Washington in July.  The GOA, meanwhile, is 
keeping a cautious but hopeful eye on China-Taiwan 
relations and believes Australia has overcome Chinese 
resistance to its inclusion in the upcoming East Asian 
Summit (EAS).  Canberra and Dili are putting the finishing 
touches on the Timor Sea negotiations, but Australian 
officials are worried about the toll that rampant 
corruption is taking on the stability of East Timor.  The 
Australians think it likely that Rangoon will drop its 
claim on the 2006 ASEAN chairmanship at some point in 
coming weeks.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (SBU) EAP Assistant Secretary Christopher R. Hill, 
accompanied by Charge, met on May 17 with Australian 
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) Deputy 
Secretary Geoff Raby (Under Secretary equivalent) and 
 
SIPDIS 
his principal advisers at a roundtable to discuss East 
Asian issues.  The first session focused on the DPRK, 
China, East Asian architecture, and South East Asia. 
Septel will report on second session discussions.  A full 
participants' list is at para 14. 
 
DPRK 
---- 
3.  (C) D/S Raby began the meeting by emphasizing 
Australia's support of the U.S. approach to the North 
Korean problem, and noting that the GOA took every 
opportunity to underline Australia's support for the Six 
Party Talks (6PT) in both its regional diplomacy and, most 
important, its direct contacts with the DPRK.  (Note: 
Australia maintains diplomatic relations with Pyongyang and 
there is a North Korean ambassador resident in Canberra.) 
A/S Hill responded to Raby's request for a 6PT update by 
describing the USG's most recent initiatives to secure 
North Korea's return to the talks. 
 
CHINA...AND TAIWAN 
------------------ 
4.  (C) Foreshadowing the message Australian Prime Minister 
John Howard would convey to President Bush when they meet 
in July, Raby said that the GOA viewed the deepening of the 
U.S.-China relationship post-9/11, and a shift away from 
the perception of China as a strategic competitor, as an 
important and positive development.  U.S. management of the 
relationship with China was of critical importance to 
Australia, he emphasized, particularly given DFAT's 
"perhaps somewhat more sanguine" view of China's rise and 
rapidly growing economic ties.  Raby said it would be a 
pity if disagreements over trade and currency put a "hard 
edge" back into U.S.-China relations.  Department of Prime 
Minister and Cabinet First Assistant Secretary for 
International Affairs Ian Kemish added that the rise of 
China was exerting a "pull on GOA policy settings," and the 
lack of bilateral aggravations in Australia's dealings with 
China made it hard for many, especially in the media, to see 
China other than as a positive story. 
 
5.  (S) A/S Hill responded that the U.S. wanted to see 
China succeed as a responsible and stable power.  Deputy 
Secretary Zoellick's participation in the upcoming 
 
SIPDIS 
U.S.-China global dialogue, and an ambitious bilateral 
summit agenda for this year, were signs of improvement 
in U.S.-China relations.  A/S Hill cautioned, however, 
that the all-too-frequent "thuggish" behavior by Beijing, 
such as its handling of the recent anti-Japan 
demonstrations, served to remind us that there were 
very good reasons to closely monitor China's rise. 
Raby agreed that Beijing's continuing human rights 
abuses and its recent support of the anti-Japanese 
mobs were "throwbacks" that justified 
concern.  DFAT First Assistant Secretary (FAS) for 
International Security David Stuart amplified the call for 
caution, noting that while Beijing had legislated 
counter-proliferation regimes, enforcement was "a mixed 
picture, with missile technology proliferation...a real 
problem." 
 
6.  (S) Turning to Taiwan, D/S Raby noted that Chen 
Shui-bian had been generally circumspect in his behavior 
toward China since his setback in the Legislative Yuan 
elections last fall and asked whether Washington perceived 
an opportunity for a breakthrough on cross-Strait 
relations.  A/S Hill responded that China was playing a 
"high-stakes game" in hosting opposition leaders Lien Chan 
and James Soong in Beijing, but that so far the gambit 
appeared to be having a positive impact on cross-Strait 
ties.  A/S Hill thought that better Beijing-Taipei 
relations might also make China more amenable to playing 
a more constructive role in the 6PT. 
 
EAST ASIAN ARCHITECTURE 
----------------------- 
7.  (C) DFAT North East Asia Branch A/S Jeff Robinson began 
the session on East Asian architecture by noting that 
Australia, Japan, and the U.S. should cooperate to ensure 
that China would not dominate the agendas of developing 
regional organizations.  Raby agreed, adding that despite 
China's earlier attempts to block the inclusion of 
Australia in the East Asian Summit (EAS), Beijing's 
"evolving view" of the EAS signaled its recognition that 
ASEAN states were determined to broaden EAS membership 
to ensure that China would not dominate it.  Raby added 
that despite progress on the EAS, it was important that the 
U.S. and Australia continue to "build up APEC" as an 
influential organ. 
 
8.  (C/NF) A/S Hill agreed with Raby on the importance of 
APEC and said that many of his ASEAN Plus Three (APT) 
interlocutors had spoken positively about Australian 
inclusion in the EAS.  Raby replied that while he 
personally found it "galling," the GOA would probably sign 
ASEAN's Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), with 
caveats, as a precondition to joining the EAS.  Australia 
was looking favorably at the South Korean model for 
acceding to the TAC with reservations that would guarantee 
that there would not be an impact on the GOA's 
commitment to the ANZUS alliance or its ability 
to criticize other EAS members.  The deal would also 
have to come with an explicit guarantee that Australia 
would be invited to participate in the first and all 
subsequent EAS meetings. 
 
SOUTHEAST ASIA 
-------------- 
9.  (C) D/S Raby said that PM Howard would emphasize to 
President Bush in July the rare opportunity Australia and 
the U.S., the two largest tsunami relief donors, had been 
given to improve relations with Indonesia.  A/S Hill 
agreed; the U.S. wanted to make the most of the boost 
America's image had received post-tsunami.  Indonesian 
President Yudhoyono's visit later in the month would 
provide a key opportunity.  Responding to A/S Hill's query 
about the Aceh peace talks, FAS for South and South East 
Asia Paul Grigson said that while there had been progress 
on the easy elements of the negotiations, the "hard stuff 
lies ahead." 
 
10.  (C) Turning to ASEAN, Grigson thought it was likely, 
but by no means certain, that Rangoon could be persuaded by 
other ASEAN members to relinquish its claim to the ASEAN 
chairmanship in 2006.  Grigson, who had been Australia's 
ambassador in Burma, described the Rangoon leadership as 
not having a coherent foreign policy, but rather being 
"event managers, who will probably step aside six-to-twelve 
months out if they assess that the other ASEAN states are 
serious" in their demands for political reform as a 
precondition of Burmese chairmanship. 
 
11.  (C) On East Timor, D/S Raby said that the Timor Sea 
negotiations were almost completed, but that corruption was 
so rampant in Dili that the prospect of introducing oil 
wealth into the country was the source of more pessimism 
and fear than optimism within the GOA.  The good news, he 
said, was that the UN Mission in Support of East Timor 
(UNMISET) was over and the shift to peace-building under 
the UN Office in East Timor (UNOTIL) might, over time, 
increase oversight and accountability at all levels of 
government there. 
 
PARTICIPANTS 
------------ 
12.  (U).  Australian participants: 
 
DFAT Deputy Secretary Geoff Raby 
Americas/Europe Division First Assistant Secretary (FAS) 
Jeremy Newman 
International Security Division FAS David Stuart 
South and South East Asia Division FAS Paul Grigson 
North East Asia Assistant Secretaries Paul Robillard and 
Jeff Robinson 
Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet FAS for 
International Policy Ian Kemish. 
 
U.S. participants: 
 
Assistant Secretary Hill 
Charge 
PolCouns 
EconCouns 
EAP Special Assistant Koehler 
PolOff (notetaker) 
 
13.  (U) A/S Hill's delegation has cleared this cable. 
STANTON