US embassy cable - 02HARARE1637

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001637 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR CNEARY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, ZI, ZANU-PF 
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF DISSATISFACTION WITH MUGABE GROWING 
 
 
Classified By: Political Section Chief Matt Harrington. 
Reasons: 1.5 (B) and (D). 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (C) Awareness appears to be growing among senior ruling 
party officials that they have dug Zimbabwe into a very deep 
hole, and that extricating themselves from it will be next to 
impossible so long as Robert Mugabe remains at the helm. 
They agree that an exit package for Mugabe would have to 
include immunity from prosecution, protection of financial 
assets, and perhaps a role or position that confers prestige. 
 It is not clear that Mugabe is prepared to leave, although 
we have heard from one source that he is beginning to 
consider retirement options, and not clear that those in the 
party increasingly dissatisfied with his leadership have the 
capacity or courage to nudge him out.  End Summary 
 
 
Increasing anxiety within ZANU-PF 
--------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) There appears to be a growing realization among some 
of those in the ruling party's senior ranks that Zimbabwe is 
in a very deep hole and that Mugabe's departure from the 
scene is a necessary precondition for the policy changes 
required for an economic turnaround and a restoration of 
political stability.  According to Eddison Zvobgo, a founding 
member of ZANU-PF and a former member of both the Cabinet and 
party Politburo, Vice-President Msika and ZANU-PF Chairman 
John Nkomo had recently acknowledged to him that Zimbabwe's 
precipitous economic crisis is inextricably linked with the 
country's political impasse.  Msika and Nkomo reportedly 
recognized that the only solution is for Mugabe to go. 
Noting that Mugabe and other GOZ officials have repeatedly 
stated that the fast track resettlement program will have 
been concluded by mid-August, Zvobgo held out a remote hope 
that Mugabe would use this opportunity to declare victory and 
announce his retirement.  At the very least, Zvobgo thought 
the GOZ could be in for a shock when ZANU-PF MPs representing 
rural areas return after the legislative break, having seen 
how badly members of their communities have been affected by 
the food shortages and general economic decline. 
 
Mugabe goes, but ZANU-PF stays 
------------------------------ 
 
3.  (C) Ghana's well-connected High Commissioner to Zimbabwe, 
Kwasi Baah-Boakye, relayed to the Ambassador that Ghanaians 
linked to the First Family (through Mugabe's first wife, 
Sally) had told him Mugabe is beginning to explore the 
possibility of stepping down.  According to Baah-Boakye, 
Mugabe is concerned about finding a successor who can 
effectively protect him and his financial assets. 
Baah-Boakye's source said Speaker of Parliament and ZANU-PF 
Secretary for Administration Emmerson Mnangagwa would be 
 
SIPDIS 
Mugabe's preferred candidate, and that Mugabe is determined 
to engineer a succession scenario which preserves the ruling 
party's hold on power. 
 
4.  (C) Politburo member Sikhanyiso Ndlovu confirmed some of 
this account in a July 12 conversation with political section 
chief, whom he told that a way must be found for "easing 
Mugabe out." Ndlovu said the Politburo had not yet taken a 
position on Mugabe's retirement, although he implied many of 
his colleagues have been discussing it informally among 
themselves.  Asked whether Mugabe was aware of such 
discussions, Ndlovu said he thought not.  He agreed that any 
exit package would have to immunize the President from 
prosecution for past misdeeds and safeguard his financial 
resources.  Ndlovu speculated that, perhaps, creation of a 
well-endowed educational foundation with Mugabe at its head 
might be a sufficiently attractive lure into retirement. 
Such a foundation could preserve Mugabe's prestige by 
providing a healthy income and allowing him to travel widely, 
while working on an issue he cares about.  Ndlovu had not yet 
discussed this idea with anyone else, but he thought it 
important that he and other ruling party insiders be prepared 
to offer Mugabe an appealing alternative to the Presidency, 
when the appropriate moment arises. 
 
War Veterans Becoming Expendable? 
--------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Meanwhile, tensions appear to be rising between the 
Government and its shock troops for the last two years -- 
members of the National Liberation War Veterans Association 
(NLWVA).  War veteran leaders have criticized the takeover of 
a number of commercial farms -- occupied by war veterans for 
up to two years under the fast track resettlement program -- 
by senior ZANU-PF politicians, and have expressed displeasure 
with increasingly paltry pensions, and health and education 
benefits.  In addition, some appear concerned at recent moves 
to reduce the influence of key war veterans within ruling 
party structures.  The NLWVA's national secretary for 
security, Mike Moyo, released a ferocious letter on July 12 
calling ZANU-PF political commissar Elliot Manyika "a 
confirmed coward," questioning his liberation war 
credentials, and accusing him of trying to purge the ruling 
party of war veterans. 
 
6.  (C) Although growing dissatisfaction among members of 
this group appears to constitute a potentially significant 
source of pressure on the Mugabe regime, a prominent 
liberation war fighter who now leads an organization of war 
veterans determined to play a positive role in building 
democratic institutions dismissed the NLWVA's capacity to 
create trouble for the Government.  Wilfred Mhanda of the 
Zimbabwe Liberators Platform told us that the war veterans 
who have served on the front lines of the GOZ's campaign of 
intimidation during the past two years have now outlived 
their usefulness and are being cut loose.  Since their 
numbers are relatively few, they can be easily controlled by 
GOZ security forces.  Mhanda noted the July 9 conviction of 
NLWVA secretary for projects Andrew Ndlovu on corruption 
charges dating back to 1998, and he predicted that the GOZ 
would now allow long-standing criminal cases against other 
senior war veterans to proceed. 
 
Impact of Targeted Sanctions 
---------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) At the conclusion of his conversation with political 
section chief, Sikhanyiso Ndlovu produced a letter he had 
recently received from AF Assistant Secretary Kansteiner 
banning his travel to the United States.  He expressed 
serious concern that he had been included on our targeted 
sanctions list, insisting that he had been a voice of 
moderation in the party, had been open with us about some key 
developments in the party, and had three U.S. citizen 
children living in the United States.  He said that he would 
henceforth be inaccessible to us and would remain so as long 
as his name remained on the list. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
8.  (C) The depth of Zimbabwe's economic and political crises 
is finally beginning to sink in with even some of the harder 
line elements of ZANU-PF, as is the realization that major 
policy reversals are necessary to put things back on track, 
policy reversals that are unlikely so long as President 
Mugabe remains at the helm.  Among insiders, there is a 
growing perception of Mugabe as a serious liability, but it 
is not at all clear whether anyone has the capacity or 
gumption to push him out.  If Mugabe is beginning to explore 
retirement options, as Baah-Boakye's sources suggest, we have 
no doubt that he will require an exit package containing the 
elements described in paras 3 and 4, and will try to foist on 
the party a successor of his choosing.  On the latter point, 
Mugabe is constrained by the constitution, which requires the 
holding of an election within 90 days of an incumbent 
president leaving office. 
 
 
SULLIVAN