US embassy cable - 05CAIRO3911

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 003911 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC STAFF FOR POUNDS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EG, Democracy Reform, Egyptian Politics 
SUBJECT: EGYPT: ARTICLE 76 REFERENDUM SPEEDING TOWARD 
ANTI-CLIMAX 
 
REF: A. CAIRO 3785 
 
     B. CAIRO 3755 (NOTAL) 
     C. CAIRO 3495 (NOTAL) 
     D. CAIRO 3424 (NOTAL) 
 
Classified by Acting ECPO Counselor Al Magleby for reasons 
1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) The May 25 referendum on parliament's proposed 
amendment of Article 76 of the constitution, to allow for 
Egypt's first competitive presidential elections, is 
virtually certain to pass, although a low voter turnout is 
widely anticipated.  A broad array of opponents have 
nonetheless called for a boycott of the referendum and even 
filed a long-shot petition with a court to freeze the polls 
on constitutional grounds.  For its part, the ruling National 
Democratic Party (NDP) has been working on a "get out the 
vote" campaign and slammed boycott proponents for 
"encouraging passivity and discouraging civic participation." 
 End summary. 
 
2. (C) As reported reftels, an impressively broad array of 
opposition parties and other forces are calling for a boycott 
of the constitutional referendum, asserting that the proposal 
to amend Article 76 put forward by parliament, nominally 
intended to create a system of competitive presidential 
elections, will in fact exclude real competitors.  (See 
reftels for analysis of the amendment and its implications.) 
Those calling for a boycott include the Wafd, Tagammu', 
Nasserist, and Ghad parties, each of which is currently 
seated in parliament, as well as the Kifaya protest movement, 
and the Muslim Brotherhood.  The Wafd party's daily newspaper 
characterized May 25 (the date of the referendum) as a "day 
of national mourning" and urged readers to send "a clear and 
practical rejection of the ruling party's hoarding of all the 
keys to power in Egypt." 
 
3. (C) Opponents of the amendment (as proposed) had several 
reasons for settling on a boycott rather than attempting to 
organize a "no" campaign.  First, they did not want to appear 
to oppose the principle of competitive presidential 
elections.  Second, they feared that their participation 
would lend credibility to a virtually inevitable "yes" 
result.  By calling for a boycott, opponents will be able to 
claim the probably inevitable low voter turnout (mainly due 
to voter apathy) as a vindication.  Several opposition 
figures filed a petition with the State Council (court of 
first instance) to demand an injunction on the May 25 
referendum, arguing that the question, as posed is 
unconstitutional because it does not provide the citizen with 
enough information about the proposal to make an educated 
decision.  A court ruling was expected May 23 or 24. 
 
4. (C) For its part, the NDP used the opportunity of the May 
18 meeting of the "National Dialogue" of political parties, 
to rally the nine (small and obscure) parties in attendance 
to join with it in rejecting calls for a boycott and calling 
on Egyptians to exercise their democratic right to vote.  The 
May 18 National Dialogue took place in the absence of the 
most significant (if still marginal) opposition parties - the 
Wafd, the Tagammu', the Nasserists, and the Ghad, who 
announced they were withdrawing from the "charade" of the 
dialogue, hosted by the NDP, in protest of the "undemocratic" 
formula by which presidential candidates qualify (reftels). 
 
5. (SBU) NDP officials and precinct bosses have been engaged 
in the past ten days in a "get out the vote" campaign to 
encourage citizens to participate in the referendum "however 
you intend to vote."  Pro-government commentators have 
criticized those calling for a boycott as advocates of 
negativity and passivity, and shirking their responsibility 
to encourage civic education. 
 
6. (C) Comment:  Our best assessment is that the referendum 
will easily win approval, but voter turnout will likely be 
low - less because of calls for a boycott than because of the 
average Egyptian voter's apathy and/or cynicism toward 
electoral processes.  End comment. 
 
 
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http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo 
 
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GRAY