US embassy cable - 05PARIS3492

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 003492 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, DRL/IL, INR/EUC AND 
EB 
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB 
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, ELAB, EU, FR, PINR, SOCI, ECON 
SUBJECT: FRANCE'S REFERENDUM ON CONSTITUTION: NOTHING 
CERTAIN WITH A WEEK TO GO 
 
REF: PARIS 3342 AND PREVIOUS 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
1.  (SBU) With a week to go before France's May 29 referendum 
on the proposed constitution for the EU, the outcome remains 
highly uncertain.  Latest polls, taken in mid-May, show 'no' 
with a slight lead over 'yes' among decided voters. 
Pollsters, however, are careful to point out that the number 
of undecided and hesitant voters remains high (about 20 
percent of those likely to vote).  The debate over the 
proposed constitution is galvanizing public attention, with 
most pollsters predicting a high turn-out (as high as 70 
percent of registered voters).  In its final straightaway the 
race is coming down to a contest between two emotion-driven 
sets of issues.  The core strength of 'no' is anger at elites 
of both left and right and fear of economic displacement 
driven by globalization and EU enlargement.  The core 
strength of 'yes' is hope that Europe can bring a better 
future (including helping France cope with globalization) and 
patriotism -- supporting France's leading role in the 
European construction.  END SUMMARY. 
 
POLLSTERS HEDGE THEIR BETS 
-------------------------- 
2.  (SBU) Current polls -- most taken in mid-May -- reflect 
that, among decided voters, 'no' holds a slight lead over 
'yes.'  All these polls show 'no' at below 55 percent and 
'yes' at above 45 percent, with between 15 and 30 percent of 
likely voters listed as undecided.  According to Eric Dupin, 
a leading commentator on polls and journalist at the economic 
daily "Les Echos," French pollsters systematically exaggerate 
the number of "hesitant and undecided" in order to hedge the 
predictive value of their polls.  According to Dupin, 
respondents are quite firm in their feelings and opinions, 
and in the proportions indicated by current polls.  But the 
polls' accurate reflection of the distribution of views 
across the electorate does not reflect how likely different 
segments of this electorate are to go to the polls on 
referendum day to express their convictions.  Polltakers have 
found that respondents tend to overstate their likelihood of 
voting, since it is embarrassing to admit (even to a 
polltaker) that one won't be bothering to vote. 
 
3.  (SBU) Pierre Giacometti, director of the IPSOS polling 
organization, follows up this line of argument in insisting 
that the profiles/demographics of voter groups are key to 
turnout, and therefore to final results on referendum day. 
For example, Giacometti believes that the psychological 
profile of many 'no' supporters -- those who are alienated 
more than angry, resentful of the whole system and despondent 
about their own economic prospects -- makes it likely that 
many will not bother to go to the polls.  While, again in 
Giacometti's view, the voter group that supports the proposed 
Constitution by the largest margin (older voters and by a 
two-thirds majority), are also the group likely to have the 
highest rate of participation.  Without backing away from 
their poll results -- that 'no' is in the lead -- pollsters 
are also exceedingly careful to point out that they really 
don't have good predictive indicators of what the results 
will be May 29. 
 
"OFFICIAL" CAMPAIGN -- MEDIA BLITZ FOR AN ATTENTIVE PUBLIC 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
4.  (SBU) The "official campaign" -- operationally, 
government financing of TV time for advocacy activities by 
political parties -- began May 16.  It features a salvo of 
ads that bracket the prime time newscasts of France's 
state-supported networks.  Overall, the major parties favor 
'yes' and the minor parties favor 'no' -- and there is no 
equal time for the key 'no' camp, "dissident" socialist party 
sympathizers.  In past weeks books about the proposed 
constitution have been selling briskly throughout France. 
The high level of interest this reveals among the 
book-reading public is now permeating the portion of the 
public more likely to get their information exclusively from 
television. 
 
5.  (SBU) The most effective of these ads, those concocted by 
televisual professionals for the largest parties -- the 
center right Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) and the 
center-left Socialist Party (PS) -- are pro-'yes' and aimed 
at swaying the undecided.  Supporters of 'no,' particularly 
those affiliated with these major parties, have been intent 
on denouncing this "state-sponsored propaganda campaign," in 
part because they fear that, as it builds up, it will be 
effective, cutting into the lead of 'no' in the last days of 
the campaign.  From the beginning of the campaign, party 
leaders in particular and the political class in general have 
underestimated the depth of popular dissatisfaction with 
their leadership and France's economic situation.  If the 
campaign finale's media blitz comes up short in bringing 
around just enough undecided voters to overreach the high 
tide of 'no,' they will have underestimated again. 
 
DIVISIONS ON LEFT AND RIGHT -- PREVIEW OF 2007 
--------------------------------------------- - 
6.  (SBU) The end of the referendum campaign is starkly 
highlighting the deep splits on both center-left and 
center-right.  These differences, essentially clashing 
visions of what the constitution should do for France and how 
Europe should evolve should it be adopted -- will persist as 
defining differences among candidates and party factions in 
the run-up to the 2007 presidential campaign.  On the 
center-right: UMP president Nicolas Sarkozy highlights how 
the constitution will help bring needed change to France, 
providing a context for more opportunity, prosperity and 
successful adaptation to globalization.  President Chirac 
stresses that the constitution provides for continuity -- 
continued protection for the institutions that sustain 
France's social model and continued support for France's 
traditional leadership role in Europe.  On the center left: 
PS National Secretary Francois Hollande has made adopting the 
constitution in order to engage in the political struggle for 
a "social Europe" the centerpiece of his pro-'yes' campaign. 
Former Socialist Prime Minister Laurent Fabius insists that 
an objective assessment of the text of the constitution in 
view of the economic heterogeneity of the 25-country union 
makes for a European construction deleterious to the 
long-term interests of ordinary Frenchmen and women. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
7.  (SBU) One area where there is general agreement is that 
the strength of anti-constitution sentiment, particularly 
among center-left voters, is due to the persistence and depth 
of ordinary Frenchmen and women's anger at their country's 
political and business elites and fear of an expanded Europe 
and globalization.  It remains to be seen to what extent 
these emotions will motivate these voters to turn out and 
vote 'no' on May 29.  Hope that an expanded Europe (so unlike 
that which the French public has traditionally supported) can 
bring a better future, along with patriotism (confidence that 
France is up to the challenge of leading in this new Europe) 
are the counter-emotions that could motivate just enough 
voters to bring about a 'yes' victory on referendum day.  END 
COMMENT. 
WOLFF