US embassy cable - 02HANOI1780

UNCLAS HANOI 001780 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
FOR EAP/BCLTV 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, VM, DPOL 
SUBJECT:  11TH NATIONAL ASSEMBLY OPENING 
 
REF:  A.  HANOI 1760  B.  HANOI 1432 
 
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1.  (U)  SUMMARY.  THE NEW NATIONAL ASSEMBLY WILL BEGIN 
MEETING ON JULY 17, BUT HAS YET NOT SCHEDULED THE VOTES ON 
THE NEW GVN AND NA LEADERSHIP (REF A).  THE NEW NA IS NOT 
EXPECTED TO PASS ANY NEW LEGISLATION AT THIS INITIAL SESSION 
OTHER THAN THE BUDGET.  IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT THERE ARE 
CONTINUED DISAGREEMENTS OVER SENIOR LEADERSHIP SLOTS.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (U)  IN A MEETING WITH POL/C ON JULY 15, VICE CHAIRMAN 
OF THE OFFICE OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY (ONA) PHAN THANH SON 
CONFIRMED THAT THE FIRST SESSION OF THE 11TH NATIONAL 
ASSEMBLY WILL CONVENE ON JULY 17, TO BE FOLLOWED BY A FORMAL 
OPENING (TO WHICH THE AMBASSADOR HAS BEEN INVITED) ON JULY 
19TH.  THE FIRST TWO DAYS WILL BE SPENT MOSTLY ON PROCEDURAL 
ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT GIVEN THAT 348 OF THE 498 
DELEGATES ARE NEWCOMERS (REF B).  ONA HAS DISTRIBUTED TO ALL 
DELEGATES VOLUMINOUS MATERIALS ON NA PROCEDURES AND 
PRACTICES ON WHICH THE DELEGATES CAN BONE UP PRIOR TO THE 
OPENING, SON ADDED, WHILE ADMITTING THAT THERE WAS NO TRUE 
TRAINING OFFERED TO THE NEW DELEGATES. 
 
3.  (U)  THE FIRST NA SESSION IS SCHEDULED TO LAST UNTIL 
ABOUT AUGUST 10, SON NOTED.  ITS MAJOR ORDER OF BUSINESS 
WILL BE THE ELECTION OF A NEW LEADERSHIP SLATE, STARTING 
WITH THE PRESIDENT OF THE SRV, FOLLOWED BY THE PRIME 
MINISTER, DEPUTY PRIME MINISTERS, AND THEN THE CABINET 
MINISTERS, THE CHAIRMAN OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY, HEADS OF 
OTHER MAJOR GVN ORGANS, THE MEMBERS OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 
STANDING COMMITTEE, AND FINALLY, HEADS OF THE MAJOR NA 
COMMITTEES.  THE NEW STANDING COMMITTEE WILL MAKE THE FINAL 
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DECISIONS ON WHICH 125 DELEGATES WILL BE APPOINTED AS "FULL- 
TIME" MEMBERS.  SON SAID THAT THEY WOULD BE CANVASSED FIRST 
AS TO THEIR WILLINGNESS TO ACCEPT THIS JOB (WHICH WILL IN 
ALMOST ALL CASES INVOLVE EARLY RETIREMENT FROM OTHER PARTY 
OR GOVERNMENTAL JOBS), AND ADMITTED THAT SOME MAY VERY WELL 
DECLINE THE HONOR FOR FAMILY OR OTHER REASONS. 
 
4.  (U)  (SBU)  SON DECLINED TO PREDICT EXACTLY WHEN THESE 
PERSONNEL "ELECTIONS" BY THE NA WILL TAKE PLACE, AND CLAIMED 
THAT THE SIXTH PARTY PLENUM HAD NOT YET FINALIZED ITS 
DECISIONS ON RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THESE SLOTS.  (SEPARATELY, 
A CPV OFFICIAL CONFIRMED TO POL/C ON JULY 15 THAT THE PLENUM 
HAD ENDED JULY 15 AS PLANNED, BUT WAS UNABLE TO PROVIDE ANY 
INFORMATION AS TO THE PERSONNEL RECOMMENDATIONS REACHED BY 
THE PLENUM.)  SON REFUSED EVEN TO PREDICT THAT THE PERSONNEL 
VOTES MIGHT TAKE PLACE DURING THE WEEK OF JULY 22, NOTING 
THE NEED FOR THE NEW NA TO HEAR A NUMBER OF REPORTS FROM THE 
PRIME MINISTER AND OTHER SENIOR OFFICIALS ABOUT THEIR WORK 
OVER THE PREVIOUS FIVE YEARS AND PLANS FOR THE NEXT FIVE 
YEARS. 
 
5.  (U)  (SBU)  SON INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE 
COULD BE COMPETITION ESPECIALLY OVER THE JOBS OF PRIME 
MINISTER AND CHAIRMAN OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY (SUGGESTING - 
- SOMEWHAT IMPROBABLY -- THAT THE PARTY AND STANDING 
COMMITTEE MIGHT NOMINATE DIFFERENT CANDIDATES), OR AT LEAST 
THAT THE INCUMBENTS MIGHT NOT BE RE-ELECTED (REF A).  HE 
DECLINED, HOWEVER, TO OFFER ANY PERSONAL OPINIONS ON THIS 
PROCESS OR ITS OUTCOME. 
 
6.  (U)  SON CONFIRMED THAT THE ONLY LEGISLATION THAT WILL 
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BE CONSIDERED AT THIS INITIAL SESSION WOULD BE THE NATIONAL 
BUDGET.  HE SPECIFICALLY RESPONDED THAT NO BTA-RELATED 
LEGISLATION WILL BE INTRODUCED FOR CONSIDERATION.   THE NA 
WILL CONVENE AGAIN IN OCTOBER FOR NORMAL LEGISLATIVE DUTIES, 
HE NOTED. 
 
7.   (SBU)  COMMENT:  WHILE WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT THE 
PARTY WILL CONTROL THE PERSONNEL PROCESS AND THAT THE NA 
WILL CONFIRM THE PARTY'S CHOICES, IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY 
LIKELY THAT THE BACKSTAGE DISCUSSIONS OVER LEADERSHIP 
CHOICES HAVE BEEN LIVELY AND PERHAPS CONTROVERSIAL.  WE DO 
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A TRUE DEBATE OVER NOMINATIONS WITHIN THE 
NA, BUT ITS RATIFICATION PROCESS MAY NOT BE AS AUTOMATIC AS 
BEEN THE CASE IN SOME PREVIOUS NA SESSIONS.  THE DEBATE MAY 
IN ANY EVENT OFFER AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST OBLIQUE 
CRITICISM OF SENIOR OFFICIALS OF THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT, 
ESPECIALLY IN THE PUBLIC SECURITY MINISTRY, ALLEGED TO BE 
INVOLVED WITH THE NAM CAM CORRUPTION CASE. 
BURGHARDT 
 
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